A Game of Confidence

A scan of the financial and economic landscape of any society during solid, genuinely prosperous times will always reveal a populace brimming with confidence. Confidence in their ability to make a living, confidence in the ability of their leaders, confidence in the workings of their financial markets to whatever extent they exist, and ultimately confidence in the strength of their money. These factors are all interlocking directorates; take any one of them away and you’ll witness an economy that is no longer efficient and begins to stumble. Take them all away and you’ll witness unbridled economic chaos.

It is the latter statement that causes me to reflect this week on the prospects for our return to prosperity. We have had the opportunity over the past year to listen to many speeches from Presidents to heads of Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Many men and women - bright men and women, have weighed in and opined on our current situation. They’ve spoken of stimulus, of consumer spending, government spending, bridges, roads, healthcare, energy, banks, and many other topics too numerous to count in this short space. However, what I haven’t heard nearly enough mention of is confidence even though the stated purpose and intent of these speeches has been to inspire the same.

The confidence of consumers

One report in particular has made some inroads in terms of getting coverage of the precipitous drop in overall consumer confidence. And in fact, the most recent release of the Conference Board’s measurement of consumer confidence was the worst in history since measurements began more than 40 years ago. Perhaps the worst part of this report was the expectations component, which absolutely fell off a cliff, plunging from a level of 42.5 to a 27.5 level. The jobs component of the report was no better. 47.3% of those surveyed expect there to be fewer jobs in the future with a mere 7.1% expecting more jobs. 4.4% thought jobs are easy to get with nearly half (47.8%) opining that jobs are very hard to get. The chart below tells the awful story.

It is fairly easy to see how the lack of confidence has translated into overall drops in retail sales. Sure people are spending less for gasoline (a major component of retail sales) than they were a year ago, but they certainly aren’t buying anything else in its place either.

This situation, however, goes way beyond some numbers reported every month. It goes to the very heart of the opening paragraph. Confidence is the key to a successful economy, particularly ours, which is so heavily dependent on the consumer taking on debt and spending money. In order to perpetuate this dynamic, the consumer needs to have utmost confidence. As 2008’s failed stimulus package demonstrates, simply handing money to consumers who are not confident will result in the money being saved or used to pay off existing bills. No confidence, no spending. It’s as simple as that.

Retirement contributions and confidence in the financial system

Whether it is along with, beside, or because of consumers' confidence, equity markets on a global scale have crashed in grand form over the past year. Sure, not all of that was caused by the little guy selling his 401(k)/IRA and going to cash. It is our opinion that the little guy actually represents a relatively small component of the overall money invested in the markets when leverage is factored in. However, the little guy’s actions have still had major ramifications. Consider the following:

• 529 plan contributions are down an average of 60% from 2007 according to a 529 plan representative who materialized at my office door a few weeks ago
• According to TD Ameritrade, 63% of people with retirement plans stopped contributing to them in 2008
• Only 21% of individuals surveyed in the above study had more than $50,000 in investable savings
• Unemployment (32%) and increases in health care premiums (25) were the leading reasons why people stopped contributing to retirement plans in 2008
• Nearly 25% of survey respondents in the 35-44 age group said they’d completely stopped contributing to retirement accounts in 2008. This more than any other group.

While data for 2008 contributions is incomplete due to the fact that 4/15/09 is the deadline for 2008 IRA contributions, it is relatively clear that 2008 contributions will be down significantly. This problem is two-fold. The first is many people don’t have the funds to invest. The second is that they have lost confidence in the markets and their ability to protect (let alone grow) capital. This reality is unfolding at an unprecedented time in history - a time when people can least afford to be caught without savings.

Job loss – the ultimate confidence-killer

As now more than 600,000 Americans each week are realizing, the loss of a job is one of the most stressful events one can endure. There is an old adage that it is a recession when your neighbor loses his job, but it is a depression when you lose yours. This is not meant to trivialize the matter of unemployment in the least, but rather to underscore the effect that the loss of one’s livelihood has on confidence. As can be expected, consumer confidence has plunged as job losses continue to increase.

Next Friday’s unemployment report is likely to feature an unemployment rate well north of 8% not counting the thousands of workers who lost their jobs in late 2007 and early 2008 that have now fallen off the unemployment rolls and as such are no longer counted. By our count, there have been nearly 2.4 million first time claims for unemployment in the past 4 weeks alone and the trend shows no signs of slowing, at least not in the short term. While unemployment insurance lasts up to a year (depending on the state), it only covers a portion of lost earnings. A good average is probably around 60%. I don’t know about you, but I don’t know too many people who can maintain their current standard of living on 60% of their income – or are even willing to try.

Money – a true crisis of confidence

Confidence in the monetary system of the United States has been a true lagging indicator. Inflation at a rate of 5% or so per year has been institutionalized in the system for as long as anyone can remember. Keynesian economics teaches us that this inflation is a normal by-product of growth and should be accepted with glee, which is absolute nonsense. This is akin to welcoming a burglar into your home and offering him 5% of your belongings then chalking it up as a cost of living.

However, even the most regular of folks are starting to wonder where the trillions of dollars for their retirements, healthcare, financial system bailouts, various industry bailouts, state bailouts, government spending, and other pet political projects are going to come from. The fact is we’ve crossed the Rubicon in this regard. The world no longer creates enough savings to cover our massive balance of payments and fiscal deficits. And remember, one in three Americans have less than $50,000 in savings to deal with this. Everyday Americans are starting to wake up to the reality that this money doesn’t exist and must be created from nothing. That certainly doesn’t bode well for their confidence in the value of the currency they carry in their pockets. It can no longer be called money, because to call it money is to imply that it is a store of wealth and acts as a standard unit of exchange.

A real store of wealth holds its value and maintains purchasing power. The US dollar has lost around 96% of its purchasing power since the Fed was created in 1913. Other paper currencies are not far behind. This reality has driven record demand for gold and silver coins as the public awakens and attempts to diversify out of paper. This overall loss in confidence in paper assets is what drives mainstream columnists to attack gold as a ‘useless rock’ and float the false notion that people who bought stock after the 1929 crash got their money back in a few years when in fact it took a few decades. Remember, it is all about confidence.

In the end, the financial crisis of 2007-? will be summed up as a fairly simple process:

1) Confidence shaken

2) More debt accumulated to maintain confidence

3) Confidence further shaken

4) Even more debt accumulated

5) Confidence lost because of all the debt accumulated

During the early stages of the crisis, policymakers and pundits alike were busy talking about strong economic fundamentals and failing to address the root causes of the problem when it might have mattered. For nearly 9 months the current depression brewed before Fed head Bernanke and Treasury Secy. Paulson were even willing to admit that a problem existed outside the banking system. The entire sum total of their efforts was to maintain confidence. It was a dangerous gamble that has proven disastrous and they’re about to learn the hard way that while you might be able to create a bailout for big banks and big government, there is no bailout for confidence.

Comments

[change is t...:]

Usually making people feel confident about something, like taking their money without actual (or illustrating how to get) results is called a scam. We ALL know how it starts......trust me.

There is a huge difference between a democracy and a kingdom. Both can do the easy things fast. What we are doing right now, however, is not easy. We are simultaneously tearing old stuff down and putting new things up. Our nation's therapy is exercising old limbs and exorcising old demons. What I see happening is health care technology is TARGETED to be improved, this should reduce our future expenses. Energy is TARGETED to be an internal engine for jobs, a decreased reliance on foreign oil and an external export industry. And finally, our financial industry is TARGETED for reform. This should make money making come from good ideas rather than financial chicanery. These are all the right things to have as goals....but the check is still in the mail.

So, excuse me, I am wary of confidence before actual delivery.

Confidence comes after goal achievement brings successful deliverables. Asking for confidence before, is like giving your money to Bernie and then ignoring what is claimed is impossible. I WANT this country and Obama to succeed. But if the former doesn't happen, neither will the latter. So, I am not turning my brain off. Just consider me a hopeful skeptic. The price of freedom is eternal vigilance. No more confidence games.

Mar 01 03:46 PM

[InnocentsAb...:]

Please. Obama is just another scam artist, although in many ways brighter and more trustworthy (if that can be said about a scammer) than GWB.

Kind of a little like Clinton. Don't forget, under Clinton the economy boomed. This is a real good time to go back to careful equity investing.

But confidence -- that is a relatively cheap commodity. You can get Americans confident quite easily -- just media and public relations. But eventually the public begins to become a little wary. Kind of like the mind set transformation that occurred during the Depression.

But really, the US economy keeps on going, regardless of sentiment. We are a rich rich nation -- not because of our qualities as Americans but because this is an amazing and beautiful land. Not like we take very good care of it. American the Beautiful is right. Maybe we should put a little more economic muscle into protecting that beauty. That would make me confident.

Mar 01 04:15 PM

[Crocodilian:]

It seems to me that we had an excess of confidence. To be confident in something that you know to be true is wisdom, to be confident in something that isn't is . . ."credulous" would be the word.

At this point, sentiment has pretty much adjusted to reality. People think things are bad . . . and they are bad. That's probably a more robust foundation for future prosperity than when folks thought things were "fine" -- and they actually weren't.

A guy who puts down a %20 down payment on a house, today, is far more likely to be buying it with a suitably realistic set of expectations than the guy who bought in 2006.

So, a prediction: Mortgages originated in 2009 (not refis, not modifications . . . honest-to-god new mortgages to bona fide purchasers) will probably perform very well-- precisely because there's sentiment is so bad, that the deal must make good sense, else it won't get done.

Mar 01 05:15 PM

[dw57:]

what would be the political impact of not paying them? or what would be the impact to society in general?


On Mar 01 09:14 AM ArkansasAngie wrote:

> "A good average is probably around 60%. I don’t know about you, but
> I don’t know too many people who can maintain their current standard
> of living on 60% of their income – or are even willing to try."<br/>
>
> How long can the US pay 60% of earnings to 10 million people? 15
> million?
>
> According to BB we'll have to do it for the next 18 months anyway.
>

Mar 01 05:33 PM

[dw57:]

actually i think assets have to get back to what wages can support. GDP doesn't have much if any thing to do with it.


On Mar 01 11:12 AM woollyB wrote:

> I disagree with this comment above: confidence is a cause, not a
> symptom. Confidence bolstered by the biggest bull market in history
> morphed into the irrational exuberance that drove all asset classes
> far beyond any traditional valuation measures, and when it finally
> reached a tipping point, lack of confidence drives everything back
> towards the other extreme. We're getting there (quickly) but not
> there yet.
>
> Not to suggest the solution is "brainwashing" and telling everyone
> there's nothing to worry about, because that's the reason all the
> bailouts were/are doomed to fail: you can't just tell someone to
> be confident and expect them to reverse course. But there is no way
> around the correction of years of way too much confidence. Assets
> have to get back to valuation levels that our GDP can sustain. Bailouts
> and purported confidence boosters can only make things worse. <br/>
>
> On Mar 01 04:55 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

Mar 01 05:34 PM

[dw57:]

as does the economy in general. if lenders have no confidence to lend, there will be no buyers for much of any thing.


On Mar 01 11:47 AM User 347440 wrote:

> The lack of confidence is true. The perspective is wrong. Lending
> agencies have a complete and total lack of confidence that there
> is credit worthy borrowers out there.
>
> The era of free credit is over. The consumer has to learn to deal
> with that.

Mar 01 05:36 PM

[dw57:]

i think the lack of confidence happened log before Obama was elected. and that is left over from an incompetent administration. along with some policies we now know are inherently hazardous and stupid!


On Mar 01 03:32 PM Moral Hazards Amok wrote:

> I’m not sure many of us agree. We’ve watched the expansion and collapse
> of one of the greatest credit bubbles in human history. It began
> as the shadow banking system spectacularly destructed after playing
> a key role in helping to create this credit supercycle. Then we
> observed $50+ in derivatives blowing up in our faces. Now we’re
> watching trillions in toxic debt contaminate almost all financial
> instruments, bringing down the world’s banking system, and we’re
> also witnessing the beginnings of a morbid death dance of many of
> the world’s governments in their beginning stages of collapse.<br/>
>
> Loss of confidence? Well, that would be the stock market continuing
> its collapse after realizing that Obama and his team of socialists
> are actually amplifying the problems with their failed Marxist policies
> and incompetent handling of this mess. Now THAT’S lack of confidence!
>

Mar 01 05:40 PM

[dw57:]

i doubt that confidence will be easy to get. we have been sold that being easy on business will ensure that we are taken care of. NOT. we have been sold that deregulating is the way to go keep employment up. NOT. we have been sold keep taxes down on the top %1 as that create jobs. NOT.
we have been told that wages (for those not in the executive class) must be kept low, for competitive reasons. we have been told that executive pay must be kept high for competitive reasons. I wonder why we don't believe them any more. especially after this debacle lead by the executive class. who are busy trying to avoid any responsibility for their mess. oh and their pay must be kept high. for competitive reason. does that seem self serving to any body else but me?

On Mar 01 04:15 PM InnocentsAbroad wrote:

> Please. Obama is just another scam artist, although in many ways
> brighter and more trustworthy (if that can be said about a scammer)
> than GWB.
>
> Kind of a little like Clinton. Don't forget, under Clinton the economy
> boomed. This is a real good time to go back to careful equity investing.
>
>
> But confidence -- that is a relatively cheap commodity. You can
> get Americans confident quite easily -- just media and public relations.
> But eventually the public begins to become a little wary. Kind of
> like the mind set transformation that occurred during the Depression.
>
>
> But really, the US economy keeps on going, regardless of sentiment.
> We are a rich rich nation -- not because of our qualities as Americans
> but because this is an amazing and beautiful land. Not like we take
> very good care of it. American the Beautiful is right. Maybe we
> should put a little more economic muscle into protecting that beauty.
> That would make me confident.

Mar 01 05:47 PM

[old boat guy:]

I listen to Obama for an hour and believe, and then get up the next mornng and see where it's all at; it is very hard to have confidence, to try to pay my bills, to look to the future. Daily, at the beginning of all this, I am already loosing faith.

Mar 01 07:15 PM

[rosey99:]

Nice post, thoughtful, thorough, and well written. Interesting, insightful, and diverse comments too. The fact that confidence rests on expectations, and that expectations in turn are a result of perception, reminds me of the great line from the (1987) film Wall Street, as the character Gordon Gecko remarks:

". . .And the perception has become real. . ."

In the film, he is (if memory serves) referring to a painting that has appreciated in value. A lot of us are realigning our expectations based on our evolving perceptions - mostly perceptions of increasing personal risks - as the data presented above suggests. I am in agreement with a number of the comments, which is to say that the lack of confidence evident in the data is based on perceptions of a genuinely dangerous situation. Add to this the lack of consensus at the top among both politicians and economists alike, and it is a wonder to me that confidence has not sunk lower. I think Niall Ferguson has aptly described this as "The Great Repression." Basically we are deeply in denial, and have been for some time:

www.niallferguson.com/...

I am also reminded of FDR's absolutely superb 1933 inaugural speech, delivered after three years of deepening economic anxiety. The following excerpt came to mind as I was reading the post, and unless I am mistaken FDR is here referring to not only the heads of banks and brokerage houses, but to central bankers and the outgoing administration:

"True, they have tried. But their efforts have been cast in the pattern of an outworn tradition. Faced by failure of credit, they have proposed only the lending of more money. Stripped of the lure of profit by which to induce our people to follow their false leadership, they have resorted to exhortations, pleading tearfully for restored confidence. They only know the rules of a generation of self-seekers. They have no vision, and when there is no vision the people perish."

For me, the long and the short of it is that we have yet to embrace any notion of just how serious the real political and economic problems are, and that confidence will not return until we banish the idea that this is all in our heads - that it is a mere crisis of confidence. Interestingly, people gained confidence more or less immediately following the inauguration of FDR in 1933 even as conditions continued to worsen. It suggests to me that until we begin a frank evaluation of just how bad things are, we will not change course, and we will not see a return of confidence as it is the little brother to trust. Given the stranglehold that the same FIRE (Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate) establishment that helped to create this mess has on public policy, it seems unlikely that a candid appraisal of our situation, and a consensus on what to do will emerge anytime soon. Further, it seems to me that such an appraisal is prerequisite for the return of any real confidence.

If history is any guide - and I'm not sure it really is - we may have a ways to go before we even get started figuring out what we are dealing with. It seems reasonable to expect further declines in confidence, along with deteriorating perceptions of economic prospects. Right up until the "perception becomes real" and a critical mass of people agree on what is actually going on.

Thanks again for the post. It got me thinking.

For those interested, an audio clip and the full text of the relatively short speech is here:

www.americanrhetoric.c...

Mar 01 07:33 PM

[Nik Kondrat...:]

Andy, great article. I agree with you because for the American people to feel confident, they have to believe they are secure in their jobs; their nest egg is safe; their financial institutions are solvent; their homes appreciate; their currency will continue to be strong; they can get credit when they need it. I don't think most people can say they are confident about these things.

In light of all the events of the past year, how can we expect consumers to have any confidence? It's no surprise the Conference Board's primary measure of consumer sentiment fell off a cliff. Look around and ask: how many people's portfolios, retirement accounts, home values, etc, have not lost at least 30-40% percent in the past year? How many people know someone who has lost a job in the last 3 months, taken a pay cut, or had their benefits or salary frozen? How many people work for companies who have frozen hiring, cut expenses, and eliminated all but the most critical travel?

And yes, I agree with you, "Caesar sat while Rome was burning" but are you really surprised? Paulson and Bernanke came from the culture that bred our crisis.

Our current administration is trying to balance the message between the cold reality that this is going to be a long and painful recession--it's so much more than that, really--and instilling the confidence that they have things under control. In reality, they don't, and at the end of the day I believe most Americans realize this and are scared beyond belief. At some point all the doom and gloom becomes a vicious cycle and the inexorable downward spiral accelerates. The silver lining is that we will come out of it. There is money to be made. Prosperity will return. The trillion dollar question is when and how.

Mar 01 09:20 PM

[Moon Kil Woong:]

The consumer confidence indicator is a lagging indicator not a leading indicator. Even the purchasing manager's indicator is lagging. The fact we were more than 6 month's into a recession with the Bush Jr. sill being able to say we weren't in a recession and the economy was fundamentally strong shows how bad our statistics really are.

The economy was on the wane long before consumer confidence dropped and will be on the mend long before people get happy again. Thus, I beg to argue, the downturn and recovery is not a consumer confidence issue. Rather it's an issue of asset destruction, followed by de-leveraging, leading to jobs and wage destruction, then back to asset destruction again, and so on. A vicious cycle indeed.

Mar 01 09:59 PM

[Al-USA:]

Good article and good comments especially dw57.

It is indeed a game of confidence, because at its core is the economic model that once serve to mobilize the productive sources but which in the last epoch was instead merely selling huge amounts of debt! Debts that were parceled up and sold on the stock exchanges.

And it is a game of confidence because even during the boom we saw the most vicious attacks on living standards, pensions, etc: it was a boom at the expense of the working class; eighty percent of Americans have been falling behind since 1973. That is the date they usually cite for the oil crisis. Nowadays a husband and wife make less money than the husband alone made at that time. Yes, huge profits have been made, but at the expense of the American working man.

And it is a game of confidence because, although the USA, as the main motor force of the world economy, with 5% of the world's population and responsible for almost 20% of growth, before the "financial crisis", has achieved this growth on demand, on consumption of the American working class; and yet, at the same time the USA has a record of nearly 30 years of stagnant wages, although the average U.S. worker now produces a third more than he did a decade ago.

And it is a game of confidence because at the moment of approaching crisis, and after 30 years of the American working man getting the "short end of the stick", the supremely rich banksters responsible for this mess immediately run cap in hand to the state for help. They want lower interest rates, loans, subsidies, etc. In effect, they want the bubble re-inflated! There is no more talk of "market sorting it all out." Greenspan re-inflated the bubble in 2001 to 2003, and he was seen as a hero - now they accuse him of causing a mess. They are right, of course, but it does not stop them from demanding similar measures now.

So, we have a way of life call capitalism, with its greed, absence of solidarity, and morality of the jungle, which in earlier epochs, was precisely what made possible the opening up of America, the colossal development of industry, agriculture, science and technology that eventually made the USA into the greatest economic power the world has ever seen. But it must also be admitted, that in the last 30 years, the American dream has been more of an American "mirage" for 80% of Americans. Living standards are falling across the board. We are the first generation that cannot expect a better living standard than the previous one.

This is the position of the American working man in the best situation of capitalism. What will happen now that he finds himself in the deepest slump since, perhaps, the 1930's Great Depression? So yes, it is a game of confidence, because if the system can not work without sacking and impoverishing workers, then it is the system which is at fault.

More information below:
"Destruction of Demand"
seekingalpha.com/artic...
littlurl.com/b8z3e

"Recent Policy Decisions and a Greater Depression"
seekingalpha.com/artic...
littlurl.com/2it28

"The Fed's War on the Middle Class"
mises.org/story/2983

"What's Behind the Financial Market Crisis?"
mises.org/story/3111

"Economic Fascism and the Bailout Economy"
mises.org/story/3333

"How to Avoid Another Depression"
mises.org/story/3103

Mar 02 03:26 AM

[JohnAl:]

There's something very different about this recession. You touch on it - the money question. Some, myself included, are questioning the monetary system itself.

An earlier commenter said that a fear of inflation is pushing the price of gold higher. That's true, but it's more than that. It's not only a lack of confidence in the future value of the dollar, it's the future of the dollar itself. The fiat dollar. The dollar that everybody is running to now for safety.

I believe that many are sensing that the dollar itself is in jeopardy. They instinctively know that all of this new debt, added to all of the existing debt, simply can't be paid back - not with dollars anywhere approaching what we know as the value of the dollar today. Obviously, the future value of the fiat dollar will be less - far less - than it is today. That leads some of us to question whether it can even survive.

I would have more confidence in the future of the dollar if I had more confidence in our ability to pay back our debt. But belief in that would require that I have confidence that we will have a booming recovery, and belief in that would require belief that our government is doing the right things. But I would have to suspend everything that I know about how the world works in order to believe that.

So I've completely lost confidence in the empire's fiat money - it's promise to pay. It's clear to me - the secular trend for the empire is bearish.

So this lack of confidence in the money itself influences my investing. Where can I save now, secure that my saving will at least have a reasonable chance of maintaining it's value? Unlike most, I don't see that safety in treasuries, except in the short term. I don't see that safety in equities, or in corporate bonds. I don't even see it in bank CDs. I don't even really see it in gold, but gold is the closest thing out there.

I'm sure I'm a bit of an outlier, but I believe that there are many of us who sense at least the possibility of big trouble ahead for the US dollar.

Mar 02 03:41 AM

[Nikola:]

Bailout for confidence is called "leadership."

I had hoped that Obama would provide us with this sort of bailout, but apparently he thinks more bank bailouts are the way to go.

Mar 02 05:09 AM

[Sentinel:]

Well...let's see....

Our political leaders have lied to us.

Our financial leaders have lied to us.

Our religious leaders have lied to us.

Hell....we've even lied to ourselves.

Hard to have confidence in this environment.

Also hard to have confidence when the reason we are here is the largest confidence game in history has gone "POOF".

Mar 02 07:25 AM

[Sentinel:]

Everyone read and re-read User 270430's post above.

He is absolutely spot-on!

Mar 02 07:32 AM

[pacman1947:]

This article and those charts (thanks, Andy, I think!?) reveal the horrible mess that we have inherited from an alcoholic binge of spending and borrowing. We lost control of our will power and our waistlines, and now the day of reckoning appears.

I don't see solutions that are readily achievable. The pain and suffering of withdrawal and dieting must come first, with the regimen of exercise and eating right to trim down and get fit again. (Pardon the metaphor).

I believe that our families must reunite and begin to work together to rebuild our Nation and renew confidence in us.

Mar 02 08:51 AM

[Willie Makeit:]

To believe that our fiat money system will survive this is to believe in fairy tales. We will all be caught in the vice-like grip of loss of production and raging inflation.

Witness the death of a once great nation before your eyes.

Mar 02 10:17 AM

[Andy Sutton1:]

Admittidely, this is a very minor point (similar to the chicken or the egg), but it would seem to that confidence can act as a primary driver as this cycle moves along. Obviously, something has to happen to shake confidence initially, but after that, confidence (perceptions of reality) can and does drive many things that happen.Unfrotunately, when you're dealing with the masses, which by and large don't pay much attention to this stuff, their perception is their reality and they act accordingly.


On Mar 01 04:55 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> Confidence it not a primary driver. Getting good measures of economic
> performance is difficult in real time. It takes the US Government
> three months to take a reasonable guess of completely useless measure
> of GDP. By contrast measuring confidence is almost instant.
>
> Also it must be born in mind that confidence is a symptom rather
> than a cause. When the unemployment figures and job losses start
> to fall, and peoples bank balances become more healthy then they
> become more confident. OK, they are tenuous arguments that feedback
> loop also take it back the other way, but you are not going to cure
> this problem through mass brainwashing. Telling everyone there is
> nothing to worry about is not going to make the problem go away.
> It is in part this approach that has made things so bad in the first
> place!

Mar 03 08:52 AM