What Happened to 'The Change We Need'? 36 comments
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The market appears to have fallen a gazillion percent since Obama was inaugurated. This is in sharp contrast to the slow market recovery which occurred in the period between Obama’s election victory in November and the inauguration in January.
What happened? We knew the economy was going to get worse. Poor economic news should not be the problem.
Expectation did not match reality. The “Change We Need” did not occur. It turned out to be same ole, same ole. The same economic faces; the same political faces; same pork barrel spending; same political wrangling; and same international problems.
America is now committed to be deeper in debt and is fully committed to expanding the war in Afghanistan without any of our traditional allies jumping on board.
But the biggest weight on the financial markets is the obvious reliance on the same economic path which has brought us into this Great Recession. The people are the same. The ideas are the same – we will spend and tax our way out of trouble.
Is it just me, or were others expecting some thinking-out-of-the-box solutions. Here is what I expected:
Panels of citizens – I would have formed citizen panels with clear mandates in the areas such as budget control, taxation, small business formation, and environment. Teachers, engineers, administrators – anyone without political, corporate or labor union baggage who is smart enough to make unbiased decisions for the good of our country. If you already knew the answer you do not belong on the panel. I would have tried to return some of the power to the people.
Review of laws – We have been a nation for hundreds of years. When we pass a law, the law stays on the books until repealed or amended. Laws were interpreted one way in 1850, and another way in 2009. We need to painstakingly review these laws. Again, non-political commissions need to start consolidating, simplifying, and clarifying our laws instead of allowing the courts to do it. Many of these laws have brought us to hell’s doorway – especially the artificial economic incentives in the tax code.
Blame Commission – In the footsteps of South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission, I was expecting a panel to establish actionable recommendations to prevent reoccurrence. The problem is that most politicians do not like establishing a commission if they cannot control the result.
Physical restraint – Pork, pork, and more pork. Evidently somebody did not get the memo that the country was deep in debt. The first act of spending legislation simply told America we are going deeper in debt. It is so obvious the spending was not targeted but seemed to be a refunding of social programs ignored by the Bush Administration.
Different Faces – It seems in Washington things change and change and never change. We are re-treading the same old faces. Yes, there are some new ones – but the players mostly have been around in previous administrations. Sorry President Obama, but George Bush could have run on the same campaign slogan as you based on the changes being made today. The change we are seeing is purely dogmatic based on a complete Democratic Presidential and Congressional administration taking power.
Diversity of Opinion – Yeah, they put together teams of people carrying the same baggage. If I was President, and I was trying to get out of a problem – I would have included some of the squeaky wheels who screamed we were on the wrong path. This is not rocket science but elementary logic. The new administration has made the mistake of believing they know what the problem is. It is impossible to have an inclusive government if you expect the opposition to work with your pre-ordained dogma
Test beds to try theories – There is no way for anybody to know for sure the correct path out of this economic crisis. We need to do some experimenting and studying. You would not jump in with both feet. Yet I see little experimenting. What I see is movement with conviction. Nobody knows what will work. There is enough evidence to discredit most theories. In this case you must experiment to establish what works. We do not want to recreate the second negative economic cycle (1937 – 1938) which was part of the Great Depression.
My question today is simply whether doing the wrong thing is better than doing nothing.
Update of Economic News
The economic cascade continues. The BEA has revised its 4Q 2008 economic forecast from negative 3.8% (advanced) to negative 6.2% (preliminary). This is the worst single quarter GDP drop since 1982. The advance -3.8% was based on incomplete data which most believed would be revised downward (BLS conservatively guesses on holes in data). There is nothing that will change what has passed – and this GDP data is rear window (trailing indicator). This tells me the market is not priced correctly for a very negative forward looking economic outlook.
There are many ways to fight inflation – lending rates are the most common. But there is another way – simply maintain high unemployment. The Fed has so much liquidity out there that normal unemployment rates would trigger inflation. The solution is not to create a climate where jobs growth does not happen. Job growth must be minimized until the liquidity is mopped up.
You think this would be contrary to Obama’s call for jobs creation. There was no real job’s creation money in Obama’s first stimulus. But more importantly, a politician’s first job is to get re-elected – the economy must be improved by 2012 elections.
The Fed Chief Bernanke gave another slight adjustment to what the Fed is seeing. Here is part of his statement to Congress:
The central tendency of their most recent projections for real GDP implies a decline of 1/2 percent to 1-1/4 percent over the four quarters of 2009. These projections reflect an expected significant contraction in the first half of this year combined with an anticipated gradual resumption of growth in the second half. The central tendency for the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 was marked up to a range of 8-1/2 percent to 8-3/4 percent. Federal Reserve policymakers continued to expect moderate expansion next year, with a central tendency of 2-1/2 percent to 3-1/4 percent growth in real GDP and a decline in the unemployment rate by the end of 2010 to a central tendency of 8 percent to 8-1/4 percent. FOMC participants marked down their projections for overall inflation in 2009 to a central tendency of 1/4 percent to 1 percent, reflecting expected weakness in commodity prices and the disinflationary effects of significant economic slack. The projections for core inflation also were marked down, to a central tendency bracketing 1 percent. Both overall and core inflation are expected to remain low over the next two years.
One of the most diabolical and cynical ways to fight inflation is with unemployment. One of the highest responsibilities of a government is to create jobs growth. The Fed’s mandate is economic growth with low inflation. The working man is a pawn in this economic chess game. The Fed is seeing up to 8-1/2% unemployment through 2010.
There is a caveat the Fed put on this forecast. This is pretty much how I see the landscape. There are too many potential pitfalls out there to be able to produce an accurate forecast.
This outlook for economic activity is subject to considerable uncertainty, and I believe that, overall, the downside risks probably outweigh those on the upside. One risk arises from the global nature of the slowdown, which could adversely affect U.S. exports and financial conditions to an even greater degree than currently expected. Another risk derives from the destructive power of the so-called adverse feedback loop, in which weakening economic and financial conditions become mutually reinforcing. To break the adverse feedback loop, it is essential that we continue to complement fiscal stimulus with strong government action to stabilize financial institutions and financial markets. If actions taken by the Administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability--and only if that is the case, in my view--there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery. If financial conditions improve, the economy will be increasingly supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, the salutary effects of the steep decline in energy prices since last summer, and the better alignment of business inventories and final sales, as well as the increased availability of credit.
In the week ending Feb. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims was 667,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 631,000. The 4-week moving average was 639,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised average of 620,000. If you believe the recent Fed statement, unemployment will be worse than it is today until the end of 2010.
The advance report on durable goods for Jan 2009 is demonstrating an increasing decline. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in January, down four consecutive months, decreased $15.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $785.0 billion. This was the largest percent decrease in unfilled orders since January 2002 and followed a 1.5 percent December decrease.
It is not news that new one family home sales are down. But the graph from U.S. Census and HUD shows how dramatic this decrease has been.
Filing for Bankruptcy: No major bankruptcy filing this week. Regulators on Friday closed Heritage Community Bank in Illinois, and Security Savings Bank in Nevada, marking 16 failures this year of federally insured institutions.
Economic Indicators Published this Past Week
The WLI from ECRI continues to demonstrate deteriorating market conditions six months from now. In their statement last Friday, they said in part “that the recession will intensify in coming months, with no recovery in sight”. I do not know how to convey what is happening in stronger words. Your President is telling you things are going to get worse, the leader of the economy Chairman Bernanke is telling you things will get worse, and the economic indicators are telling you things will get worse. As an investor, why would you believe otherwise?
Confidence indicators are poor metrics to judge economic potential. They jump up and down based on the last set of news – and for me simply are a snapshot of the conditions at the second the survey for the indicator was taken. The Conference Board published a negative looking Consumer Confidence Index for February 2009.
If you would like a summary of all government financial indicators, click here.
Disclosures: None.
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On Mar 01 01:43 PM User 344976 wrote:
>
>
> Healthcare system is completly broken. To fix it, we also need Tort
> reform. A truck driver should not get a 50 million dollar judgement,
> just because the hospital cut the wrong leg off. You know what I
> mean?
But the biggest weight on the financial markets is the obvious reliance on the same economic path which has brought us into this Great Recession. The people are the same. The ideas are the same – we will spend and tax our way out of trouble.
Is it just me, or were others expecting some thinking-out-of-the-bo... solutions.(?)"
One simple question for the author: Why is it you expect that the 'solution' to our economic problems will be found via gub'mint actions?
Here's an outside-the-box approach: Get the gub'mint to stop 'fixing' things and let the chips fall where they may. People who did foolish things will suffer, those who did prudent things will pick up the pieces and rebuild on a sounder foundation. That's the only sane way to extricate ourselves from the economic quicksand we find ourselves in.
As you put it, the gub'mint should 'do nothing'. Individual citizens are the creators of wealth, not politicians. Political 'steering' of the economy is what produced the mess in the first place.
This was the essence of the Ron Paul campaign. Republicans everywhere had an opportunity to introduce real change in the political process during the primaries and instead chose to vote the party line.
As the old saying goes, we are getting what we asked for. Like as not, we deserve it.
Take a look at mises.org. There is a large collection of writings by Austrian economists like Von Mises, Hayek, Rothbard, among others that you can read for free if you want to understand WHY gub'mint interference in the markets produces the problems we are seeing today.
The theories have been around since before the Great Depression, but they receive little or no public acknowledgement because, if followed, they would hamstring politicians' efforts to buy votes with deficit spending.
The economy died.
Change (to socialism/marxism) we can believe in.
It's here, it's happening now!!
yeah, i know the truth sucks, lets see how many more votes i can get, this just proves my point i posted this less than 8 hours ago and already people or voting (poor comment) it just goes to show how all jellyfish roll!!I SUPPORT our president. and given the chance would you say this to him, UMMM NO!!!! of course not. You are hidden thank the Lord that you will never be in a position to do anything about your anti-Obama views. Comment on that!!!!! behind all the stats, quotes, etc..., charts, diagrams, economics You are sad your generation of ignorance is dying out!!! And with the results of the last presidental election it is finally been proven. A man is a man. And the best man won.
So this is what creative destruction looks like.
I read a story in Austria where the hospital took off the wrong breast on a women. The women sued and was awarded 60K. That's it. If that was in the US, she would easily have received 2 million dollars or more. Is the breast worth 2 million? If your a supermodel maybe. Again, just my opnion. There has to be caps on awards.
On Mar 01 01:49 PM boats.j wrote:
> Is the $50 million unreasonable because he's a truck driver? If not
> I don't see what being a truck driver (or butcher, baker or candlestick
> maker) has to do with it. Are you saying that Gates, Ellison and
> those kind of people deserve $50 million for a lost leg?
part of the answer to your questions are addressed by g. edward griffen in 40 minute audio recorded for 2/28/09 second hour program on FINANCIAL SENSE NEWS financialsense.com
if your not aware of his 1994 book or the early 60s book-iron mountain[author unknown], you may find of interest.
could national or worldwide "collectivization" of gov't be at the heart of your questions? i'm not bent that way, but worth an hour if your not up on this.
You, by the way, do seem to judge the truck driver as less worthy as you suggested he couldn't make that much money in $25 lifetimes.
The only real class warfare is by the wealthy against everyone else.
On Mar 01 03:24 PM User 344976 wrote:
> It is unreasonable because that person would never make 50 million
> in 25 lifetimes. If they have the earning capacity and the malpracatice
> affects their work, then the judgement should reflect that amount.
> Giving someone 50 million because we want to send a message and we
> feel sorry for them as jurors is not sustainable and leads to taxi-chasing
> attorneys. Just my opinion.
>
> I read a story in Austria where the hospital took off the wrong breast
> on a women. The women sued and was awarded 60K. That's it. If that
> was in the US, she would easily have received 2 million dollars or
> more. Is the breast worth 2 million? If your a supermodel maybe.
> Again, just my opnion. There has to be caps on awards.
Obama is doing just fine and he is doing exactly what he said he was going to do during all his campaigning state or federal. Wealth Redistribution or decrease your hard earned money and give it to less fortunate dead beats.
Elections are over a 4 % swing voters ---Obama got them this last election . I bet many are sorry about that vote.
Obama is doing just fine and just as I saw him in Chicago. I think he will be just like the majority of NFL football players - they play 4 years and out.
I just hope BHO does not screw up the beer production. !!!!!
Cheers, DuffBeer
Ah, but to wish away past choices by turning a blind eye, then smiting the truth-sayer with the only eye left open.
When Rev Wright was talking about "chickens coming home to roost", he wasn't referring to racists such as the North Carolina dude. Their lot is too obvious to be concerned with.
For all that want everyone to suffer in these posts, ready to throw the bums out, or blind a few more eyes, please take a look around the world at what the policies of the past half century -- certainly since the mid-1970's have wrought -- before you immediately dismiss a chance for change.
Unfortunately, we have been "staying the course" for at least the past thirty years.
The introduction, ascendency and idolatry of Milton Friedman's brand of shock economics has done more to destroy the world's economy than any econmic theory in our lifetime. This is not just Reaganomics /Bushanomics, but the pitting of haves/have nots in a global play orchestrated through Milton's disciples within the IMF, World Bank, and governing neo-conservative world view since at least 1975.
Cutting taxes on the wealthy and re-distributing middle class income up to those captains of industry combined with out-of-this-world (remember Star Wars!) spending on defense in the 1980's and narry a veto within eight years of spending bills full of Republican pork projects, and conveniently leaving the $1 Trillion dollars of Iraq war spending off the books while the national debt ballooned from around $5 Trillion to $10.6 Trillion at last peek is an ingenious spin on what constitutes supply side stimulus, if not outright delusion.
Count the change left in your pockets, unless of course you are one of the few who benefitted from this latest episode of Shock Economics so popular with necons. I'll just ask you the same question Reagan used to ask: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"
If you're in the same boat as the rest of us, our "staying the course" has undeniably run the lot of us aground. If you have benefitted, then you're one of the lucky 2% that control 80% of America's wealth, completely comfortable that you'll ride out the storm until the next lunatic can covince most of the people all of the time into something completely counter to their own self interest.
That waiting game might just now be an end game. Name a country -- any country -- where the IMF and World Bank have fanned the flames of capitalistism, and I'll show you a country that looks amazingly like America today.
Consider just these four examples of how we worry so much about who is getting hurt by policies that are written by the Oligarchs who have shaped national policy and tell me if you still don't believe that we need to change course:
1. Our effective cost per gallon of gas is ~$10.00 when one factors in the roughly $30 billion dollars in tax subsidies ANNUALLY provided to the oil and gas industry. This is the most egregious, downscale tax imaginable. Moreover, the oil and gas companies simply need to bid and secure future leases and INTENT to drill for the largess we reap upon them every year. This ponzi scheme against the American taxpayer is one of our dirtiest tax secrets.
The attempted movement away from an oil-based economy is long overdue. Eliminating these subsidies and replacing them with a carbon tax and offsets would be a dandy replacement for current outlays while returning the investment towards modernizing the electrical grid and smart energy technologies while contributing towards deficit reduction. Even an oil guy as purile as T. Boone Pickens has attempted to wake up and smell the coffee.
2. Add to that tax subsidy the protectionist import rules on sugar, milk, etc. Removing sugar tariffs alone and replacing this supply with a much more efficient cane sugar ethanol source could end the corn producer/fertilizer manufacturers stranglehold on the taxpayer's neck. If one wants to make the small farmer argument, then set resdiency, gross receipts and size requirements on farm subsidies. This reward for planting inefficient crop supply and for NOT PLANTING crops drawfs even the oil subsidies.
3. For people who don't count the payroll, FICA, SUI, etc. automatic worker payroll contributions while conveniently ignoring the offshore accounts, shell businesses, and other manipulative uses of the tax code by those who can afford tax attorneys, don't be so quick to condemn the extra pittance through earned income tax credits, adjusted rate schedules for wage earners and such put into the pockets of those who actually contribute a day's labor for a fair wage vs. the incredible sums paid to those who move money through the system. Look where that system of rewards has put us.
4. Finally, would someone please explain to me why there is a ~$100 K cap on wage contributions to Social Security?
I could understand the first vote, but when Bush and the Republican party abondoned their principles during his first term, what was the sense of reelecting him? More than doubling the national debt and then during his final weeks in office giving Wall Street financiers $350 Billion without any or much oversight. I don't believe most of you righties understand the depth of the economic problems this nation faces.
No, I don't think Obama has the right answers but his job is to clean up the mess left to him by Bush and the Republicans. It is a big mess, and while they are directly responsible for a good part of the nation's problems, they originated many many years before Bush and even Clinton. So you can play the blame game if you wish, but that will not solve the problems the nation faces. As the saying goes "If your not part of the solution, you are part of the problem".
It is going to take some time, but we will see change like it or not.
Also, different states have their different reasons for passing sovereignty legislation. I am hopeful we can regain some human rights this way.
Truth and reconciliation may just have to happen on the internet. There are some whistle-blower sites that allow anonymous tips that can then be followed up on with Freedom-of-Information requests.
As for what to invest in with all this, my state still has a lot of in-migration of people who appear to have resources from other states. So I am staying in a Franklin-Templeton double tax-free muni fund with my taxable for now. Gold makes me itch, and I don't have anywhere secure to put it.
Thanks for the article.
Your article is completely realistic and true..
You have done the best again.
Also i realized that i still learn some things from you..
Best regards
Osman OMAY
İ made a misteke when i voted your article by accident. it will be "+" (positive) instead of "-" negative...
Best regards
Osman OMAY
Does anyone on this board really understand the depth of the problems? Does our government truely understand the problems?
So basically all of these companies should be Bankrupt (Bank of America, Citi Bank, GM, GE, Ford, Chrysler, AIG, Merril Lynch, etc...)
So how exactly is capitalism working when even the right wing capitalists don't want to let the above companies fail?
Everyone is a capitalist until it's time to pay the piper. And this is the problem with humans. No one wants to take the pain of all the tough decisions that need to be made. No one wants to take the true pain of capitalism. Everyone wants to be bailed out when they screw-up. If we take the pain accordingly, the system works.
This is all about greed. Not right wing/left wing ideas/politics, as much as some would like to spin it that way. Greed is the problem and our inability to take the true pain of capitalism.
On Mar 01 10:54 PM Deegan wrote:
> Blame Obama, Blame Obama thats the best you can come up with. The
> man has only been in office for a month. While I don't endorse govt.
> programs and deficit spending, I have to wonder, just why all you
> right wingers who hate BHO voted for Bush twice.
>
> I could understand the first vote, but when Bush and the Republican
> party abondoned their principles during his first term, what was
> the sense of reelecting him? More than doubling the national debt
> and then during his final weeks in office giving Wall Street financiers
> $350 Billion without any or much oversight. I don't believe most
> of you righties understand the depth of the economic problems this
> nation faces.
>
> No, I don't think Obama has the right answers but his job is to clean
> up the mess left to him by Bush and the Republicans. It is a big
> mess, and while they are directly responsible for a good part of
> the nation's problems, they originated many many years before Bush
> and even Clinton. So you can play the blame game if you wish, but
> that will not solve the problems the nation faces. As the saying
> goes "If your not part of the solution, you are part of the problem".
>
>
> It is going to take some time, but we will see change like it or
> not.
"
Greed is the problem and our inability to take the true pain of capitalism.
"
That most certainly applies to the capitalist elite, especially the corrupt financial elites of AIG.
However, for the working class, where have you been for the last 30 years? The working man has been crushed, crushed.
He's been crushed because even during the boom he saw the most vicious attacks on his living standards, pensions, etc: frankly, it was a boom at the expense of the working class; eighty percent of Americans have been falling behind since 1973. Nowadays a husband and wife make less money than the husband alone made at that time. Yes, huge profits have been made, but at the expense of the American working man.
However, you are right about the AIG elites because after 30 years of the American working man getting the "short end of the stick", the supremely rich banksters responsible for this mess immediately run cap in hand to the state for help. They want lower interest rates, loans, subsidies, etc. In effect, they want the bubble re-inflated! There is no more talk of "market sorting it all out."
So, no, my friend, this goes beyond greed, this is about a way of life call capitalism, with its greed, absence of solidarity, and morality of the jungle, where for the last 30 years, the American dream has been more of an American "mirage" for 80% of Americans. Living standards are falling across the board. We are the first generation that cannot expect a better living standard than the previous one.
This is the position of the American working man in the best situation of capitalism. What will happen now that he finds himself in the deepest slump since, perhaps, the 1930's Great Depression?
This is beyond greed, this is a system that can not work without sacking and impoverishing workers, and in this system there is much fault than just mere greed.
To those of you who comment with passion about Republican:Democrat Dogma I will forthrightly accuse you of being shortsighted and allied with a label that clouds your judgment.
Why can we not discuss the relative impact of action and policy instead of taking issue with MY TEAM VS YOUR TEAM silliness. Both Parties Are The Same In Action. Neither have the country and the peoples interest in mind.
I care not about the affiliation of ones club: I care solely about the outcome of action.
Debate Is The Distillation Of Reality. We have had far to little of both for quite a while.
Most do not want to look into the Maw Of The Beast That Has Been Created By Government And Its Incentive. They dismiss reality out of fear of it. Safety Is A Function Of Awareness.
You can conclude any position if you limit your data to that which only supports your paradigm.
Please attempt to divorce yourselves from your preconceived notions and re-evaluate your positions without bias as best you can.
If we continue to bicker based upon the Pseudo-Racism that the Party Paradigm Promotes - We Will Fictionalize At Our Greatest Peril And All Will Suffer More Than They Would Have.
Substance Over Symbolism.
Be American First - The original concept and spirit of the Constitution is the best guide of what should be done.
I wish more would have debated Ron Paul rather than dismissed him. His positions are more complex than the sound bytes allow for.