Will Obama Be Re-elected?

There is a doomsday clock that hangs at the University of Chicago that is meant to show how close we are to the end of the world. It doesn't move much. In fact, it was moved two minutes closer to midnight in January of 2007. Since then we have had no movement and we now stand at 5 minutes before midnight, or the expected end of the world.

Why do I bring this up? Until recently I would have put the chance of Obama not being re-elected at about the same chance the doomsday clock hits midnight in the next 4 years. After reading the Obama "tax the wealthy" plans, I am moving the Obama Doomsday Clock up by 1 minute.

Let me digress, I have a friendly banter with a Wall Street professional and I have always argued that there is a 99% chance that Obama will be re-elected in 4 years. One, he is the most charismatic speaker of our generation, if not a few generations. His speech patterns and pauses are mesmerizing and could sell you just about anything. Two, he is inheriting the biggest financial and economical disaster in 70 years.

Why is this good? All he has to do in the next four years is just STOP the decline. He doesn't even have to turn anything around. He just has to stop the bleeding. Get unemployment to stop RISING, and get housing to find a BOTTOM, somewhere, anywhere. That's it. His re-election is sealed with "I have stopped the greatest disaster in the last 100 years and I can make this country turn around if you give me 4 more years". Done. He is in.

"Not so fast my friend." as Lee Corso, ESPN football commentator would say. After reading his budget plans, I was shocked to see how much he is attacking the wealthy. It is is one thing to raise their taxes, but I read in disbelief how mortgage interest will no longer be a tax deduction and how there will no longer be a tax deduction for charitable contributions. As if the charities weren't hit hard enough by this market and Madoff, now no tax deduction for contributions? So, we are going to rely on the good hearts of the super wealthy to give large amounts with NO financial gain, just an altruistic pat on the back? Wow, talk about robbing Paul to pay Peter, or better yet, robbing St. Peter to pay Uncle Sam.

Taking the mortgage interest off the table is also just as questionable. We need a housing bottom, we need to encourage wealthy and not-as-wealthy people to pay their mortgages and buy homes, and now you take away the tax deduction for mortgage interest. How is this helping to find a housing bottom? You just made mortgages a whole lot more unattractive to people that have a decent net worth and that can spend some money and get things moving.

I know have to scale my Obama Re-Election Clock back to 92% from its current 99%. Why? Because 5% of the population controls 95% of the wealth in this country and Obama just declared war on them. Like it or not, money equals power in our society. The more money you have, the more power and influence people give you. I am not here to start a moral debate over money, power, and influence, but let's just say if you are a big donor to your local and State politicians and you request a phone call with them, they are going to call you back. If you start rustling the feathers of enough wealthy people with power and with powerful connections, there tends to be a backlash of some kind down the road.

This opens the door a crack for someone like Mitt Romney to step up in 2012. You can see the slogan as "I ran successful corporations, and American is a big corporation. We need a business and economic leader like myself to turn this country around". Is it a dead heat right now? No way. Again, all Obama has to do is stop the bleeding, and he is in for four more years.

They say in life to never bite the hand that feeds you (or your government in this case) and Obama has nibbled on a finger. If he attacks the rest of the hand don't be surprised to see the Republicans start a "he just doesn't have the experience to get us out of this" conversation in 24 months, and to boast of their big business prowress.

Original Post

Comments

[henarl:]

Charisma got an inexperienced and relatively unknown Obama elected in November, but charisma alone will not get him reelected. In 2012 he will be judged on conditions at that time which, in our global economy, is pretty much beyond his control. If conditions are worse he will be voted out, if they are better he will be reelected. Four years is a long time, both here and in the rest of the world, so it's just guesswork right now.

Mar 01 01:42 PM

[zermux:]

Before this election campaign I rarely heard the phrase "Class" much in the US. now I seem to hear it all the time - particularly how the wealthy class did great in the Bush era, and therefore they need to give that money back to the lower classes.

Lets see how the poor do without the rich - my guess is that - after the redistributed cash has been spent - the poor will get poorer.

I don't like all this class talk - it smacks of someone preparing for some kind of revolution - true class warfare.

As someone who was in the top 1% last year - I think it may be time to change countries - not sure I want to stay around and get robbed. Mr Boats seems to be onto something.

Mar 01 05:54 PM

[TimR:]

What is all this nonsense?

Mesmerizing? 99%? 92%?

Ths is just the breathless cry of a dazed and dazzled cult member.

If Obama's plans to overhaul the economy and turn the US into a faux-socialist state fail, you can forget about the convulsions of ecstasy.

The election is over. There is no need to carry on like this.

Mesmerizing indeed....

Mar 01 05:57 PM

[Tyronne Her...:]

well hello there mr. Boats,
I is not sure this is your name or not but it is the only thing posted on this page i is reading. There is a lots of things I wants you to know. That guy that calls hisself firebal is a racist too. I sure has to agree with you on that one. I had me a little fight with him the other there night. he finaly seen i was right and gave up fighting with me. good for you for seeing thru him like i did.
i has a question for you. if you is not a american anymore why is you in this here page. IF you has long gone and left us folks behing why is you bothering with your coments. it sure don't make anysense. this here pages is for us folks that are trying to make this our country better for us. Like our mr. president elect barack Obama is doing. he is going to give back to us all that we deserv. He is going to give this country back to all us black folks. you should not make anymore coments about something that doesnot has anything to do with you. you dont live here with us so shut up your mouth and live with your white folks whetever you is living now. we has got enough bad influense from the bad white people that do live in this country like that Mr. firebal. we sure dont need anymore from white folks that don't live here with us.
and one more thing why is it that you left again. is it because you did not wants to pay taxes or is it because youb is afraid of being the minoriti now that we got us a black president. i is not sure of the answer to that from your readings on this page.
the only thing you is rigth about in this hole page is that firebal needs to pay more taxes and if you are goint to talk in this page then you needs to pay more taxes too.


On Mar 01 12:28 PM boats.j wrote:

> I'm likely the last guy to get advice from!
>
> I got the hell out of America 16 yrs ago. Been in Asia most of that
> time. I lived in Europe, S. America before coming here. I found a
> country that for the most part could give a shit about me either
> way. They leave me alone. Just the way I like things. Starts getting
> bad here I'll sail away without too much regret.
>
> I never looked at paying taxes as an investment. Rather taxes are
> what you pay as part of living somewhere. I did all I legally could
> to minimize those taxes per IRS code. Haven't lived in America for
> a very long time, go there every 4-5 years for a funeral if I must,
> get royally fucked with when I do. Fuk'em.
>
> The moral of the story is find someplace where the gov't won't fuck
> with you too much, settle in, divorce your mind from all that pepsi-coke
> American bullshit and enjoy your life. America is dead. The one we
> were taught about anyway.
>
>

Mar 01 06:32 PM

[Charles A...:]

The kids of the baby boomers have no idea about living in a broadly based, equitable economy like the one their parents grew up in. Taxes are not important when prices of good and services are "affordable". What your take home buys is what counts. The Reagan Revolution changed the benefits of living in America, to fewer and fewer citizens and take home pay bought less. What do you want. Choose. Can't have it both ways.

Mar 01 07:00 PM

[terryg8:]

President Obama will be re-elected if our economy gets better but he does not have 4 years, he has 2 years. The congressional elections will be key for him. Even this smooth talking Chicago machine politician cannot survive if he loses the mass support of the millions of middle of the road working Americans who voted him and this congress in the last election. If these voters fail to turn out in support of him and the policies that he and his completely Democratic Congress are rushing through they will lose Congress and the Obama program will be stopped dead in the water. So far, American’s are seeing one spending bill after another but nothing that offers real relieve to their personal circumstances beyond a $13 a month tax cut that reaches few who actually pay taxes. If we have learned nothing else, we know that “it is the economy, stupid” is the central issue in any election! The American people will not live through this sort of economic hell for very long before they decided that all this “change” and “hope” are not working. In two years they will be ready for a change even if it is back to the “good old days of Bush”.

Enter the Republican Party if things do not get better in 2 years. They will have plenty of ammunition to throw at Obama and his co-conspirators in congress if the current policies appear to fail to turn this economy around after two long years. Wasteful spending, a huge deficit that he DID NOT inherit, higher taxes on many more than those making over $250K a year, a war that will be still going on even though he promised to end it, many promises he cannot deliver on, and huge losses in the value of our homes and retirement accounts that he promised he could fix two years before. After two years it will all belong to Obama and the Democratic Congress as far as the voter will be concerned and they will need to have come much farther than to have simply “stopped the bleeding” to hold on to congress. If things then get better, Congress, controlled by the Republican Party, can take credit and claim things would be even better if Obama and his failed policies were not “in the way” of a complete Republican lead plan.

Obama is well on his way to repeating the path of Jimmy Carter. Even those who I know that voted for him are now having second thoughts about their vote as they look at how things are so much worse and the programs they see coming our of congress look more like the wife of a bankrupt millionaire on a spending spree than a responsible government trying to address the real issue of an economy in the toilet. After only one month in office many are already losing hope and he is not helping his cause with more doom and gloom in every speech. God help the Democrats if things are no much better in two year for they will not hold power again for at least a decade!

Mar 01 09:03 PM

[ain't no fo...:]

FUD - Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt - that is all the Repugs have left to throw out to make us forget WHY we are where we at today - it is just a 2nd rate tactic designed to shift the blame and attention away from themselves.

And you notice they have no ideas of their own outside of the same old same old "Tax cuts for the rich, Tax cuts for the rich".

I swear I'm surprised they don't bottle that one up and use it as a cure for the common cold.

Remember that - Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt - FUD, brought to you by the Repugnant blame gamers who fired their last shot and stand impotently before us shaking their fists and repeating their mantra until the end of time.

Mar 01 09:19 PM

[Bobco23:]

Ok, boats. Here's your tax lesson for today.

The marginal tax rate on the wealthy has been 35% for the past few years. A contribution of $1 million generates a tax benefit to the donor of $350k. The donor is out of pocket $650k. It costs them twice as much in after tax cash as the tax benefit.

How much did you contribute to charity?

p.s. I am not in the top 1%; more like the top 40%.


On Mar 01 07:28 AM boats.j wrote:

> "So, we are going to rely on the good hearts of the super wealthy
> to give large amounts with NO financial gain"
>
> A huge admission that all this hoity-toity philanthropy is just cynical
> tax avoidance.
>
> Fuk'em 90% tax on ANYONE making more than $1 million a year. While
> we're at it make it retroactive back to 20JAN81! Wankers.

Mar 01 09:43 PM

[Niner:]

Hey Boats they don't like me either. There is no philantropy among them. Everything revolves around positive dollars for them. They are the new Robber Barons.


On Mar 01 07:28 AM boats.j wrote:

> "So, we are going to rely on the good hearts of the super wealthy
> to give large amounts with NO financial gain"
>
> A huge admission that all this hoity-toity philanthropy is just cynical
> tax avoidance.
>
> Fuk'em 90% tax on ANYONE making more than $1 million a year. While
> we're at it make it retroactive back to 20JAN81! Wankers.

Mar 01 09:47 PM

[Niner:]

That's the math that we see. You can bet your sweet ass that they did not donated that money because they are kind and benevolent people. They did it because sonewhere behind the math that we see, there was a benefit for them. I'll bet you it was positive and it involved money.

On Mar 01 09:43 PM Bobco23 wrote:

> Ok, boats. Here's your tax lesson for today.
>
> The marginal tax rate on the wealthy has been 35% for the past few
> years. A contribution of $1 million generates a tax benefit to the
> donor of $350k. The donor is out of pocket $650k. It costs them twice
> as much in after tax cash as the tax benefit.
>
> How much did you contribute to charity?
>
> p.s. I am not in the top 1%; more like the top 40%.

Mar 01 09:54 PM

[Niner:]

give 'em hell.


On Mar 01 09:24 AM ferguson wrote:

> Intelligent discussion would be greatly enhanced by accurate information.
> I am no expert on the Obama plan vis a vis the deductibility of mortgage
> interest, but my understanding is that is not proposing to eliminate
> deductibility, only to place limits on deductibility for those in
> the highest tax brackets.
>
> In other words, the proposal is designed at least partly to prevent
> the very wealthy from getting a tax break that they neither need
> nor deserve by building an overly large and overly expensive house
> and to be subsidized in that action by the American taxpayer.
>
> This is good policy, not bad policy.

Mar 01 09:59 PM

[Niner:]

Atta boy WP


On Mar 01 10:23 AM wpdragon wrote:

> Wow!
>
> The slime from the RNC are really mobilizing the forces of hate,
> lies and racism on these blogs I see.
>
> They must be terrified the American people are going to remember
> how bad they and their stooges in Congress from 1994 to 2006 and
> the idiot rich kid and his handlers destroyed the constitutional,
> economic, legal and societal fabric of this once great nation.<br/>
>
> Don't worry, we won't forget you!
>
> You can count on it.

Mar 01 10:10 PM

[Niner:]

.Turn about is fair play............

On Mar 01 05:54 PM zermux wrote:

> Before this election campaign I rarely heard the phrase "Class" much
> in the US. now I seem to hear it all the time - particularly how
> the wealthy class did great in the Bush era, and therefore they need
> to give that money back to the lower classes.
>
> Lets see how the poor do without the rich - my guess is that - after
> the redistributed cash has been spent - the poor will get poorer.
>
>
> I don't like all this class talk - it smacks of someone preparing
> for some kind of revolution - true class warfare.
>
> As someone who was in the top 1% last year - I think it may be time
> to change countries - not sure I want to stay around and get robbed.
> Mr Boats seems to be onto something.

Mar 01 10:14 PM

[zermux:]

I have figured out what to do. I am going to take a 4 year holiday. I am not going to earn a single dollar for the next 4 years. If every producer in the US does this then the Obama Communist party will collapse much faster than if we simply continue operating and whine all the time.

So basically I request everybody who makes money in this country to stop for a while. If the commies have no money to redistribute then they fail and the huddled masses will not vote for them again.


On Mar 01 10:14 PM Niner wrote:

>
> .Turn about is fair play............
>
> On Mar 01 05:54 PM zermux wrote:

Mar 02 02:56 AM

[veryold:]

Elected on Tuesday. We expected results on Wednesday. How about giving him a chance?

Mar 02 01:03 PM

[fireball:]

zemux
already there. resigned from my job last month. worked hard all my life. always tried to lend a hand or give some cash to a friend or neighbor in need. i have more than enough, precious metals as backup, a beautiful woman to pass the time with. now the market is for fun. i hunted and shot targets all my life so anyone that thinks they want to claim the fruits of my labor, come and take it.
if the majority wants a workers paradise with obahahahahmahahahah they can pay for it. i'm done.
who is john galt?

Mar 02 06:08 PM

[31October:]

Mr. Hernandez,

Please stop attempting to incite anger against black citizens. Americans are fully aware of our ability to write proper English. People will not fall for "Like our mr. president elect barack Obama is doing. he is going to give back to us all that we deserv. He is going to give this country back to all us black folks". Investors who read financial sites are too sophisticated to buy your manipulation.

Your fake vernacular clearly marks you as devisive and a poser who would rather drag people like me behind a pickup truck than vote for Obama.



On Mar 01 06:32 PM Tyronne Hernandez wrote:

> well hello there mr. Boats,
> I is not sure this is your name or not but it is the only thing posted
> on this page i is reading. There is a lots of things I wants you
> to know. That guy that calls hisself firebal is a racist too. I sure
> has to agree with you on that one. I had me a little fight with him
> the other there night. he finaly seen i was right and gave up fighting
> with me. good for you for seeing thru him like i did.
> i has a question for you. if you is not a american anymore why is
> you in this here page. IF you has long gone and left us folks behing
> why is you bothering with your coments. it sure don't make anysense.
> this here pages is for us folks that are trying to make this our
> country better for us. Like our mr. president elect barack Obama
> is doing. he is going to give back to us all that we deserv. He is
> going to give this country back to all us black folks. you should
> not make anymore coments about something that doesnot has anything
> to do with you. you dont live here with us so shut up your mouth
> and live with your white folks whetever you is living now. we has
> got enough bad influense from the bad white people that do live in
> this country like that Mr. firebal. we sure dont need anymore from
> white folks that don't live here with us.
> and one more thing why is it that you left again. is it because you
> did not wants to pay taxes or is it because youb is afraid of being
> the minoriti now that we got us a black president. i is not sure
> of the answer to that from your readings on this page.
> the only thing you is rigth about in this hole page is that firebal
> needs to pay more taxes and if you are goint to talk in this page
> then you needs to pay more taxes too.

Mar 03 07:33 PM

[jmc_377:]

Wow...this is honestly depressing..why don't we give the man a chance to work. Like McCain posed better ideas? Maybe he doesn't have the experience, but not voting for him would have set the country up for definite failure. The dramatics are amazing. This was the last presidential election? SMH

Mar 20 10:08 PM

[Scott of De...:]

Obama will be re -lected , it isn't a matter of question it is just obvious. Of course he will be. It is practically already decided, why do we even need another election? It will be fruitless and a waste of time. Obama is just going to walk right back into the White House, he won't even need to campaign! This nation (and world) is in love with him and seems to thinks he is the best leader this world has ever had. Of course he will lose supporters, but he will retain the majority that he has (which is the majority of Americans) and he will gain news ones in four years! And OVERWHELMING amount of new supporters! Newely registered young voters, newly registered citizens who never voted before, registered citizens who never voted before, voters from other parties that are voting and have voted for him, independant voters who seem to live him, nearly every minority, education, employement and financial class, new citizens to this nation who just earned their right to vote, those who voted against but changed their mind after they witness his first four years and agree with it! I could go on and on. Like I said a campagin will actually be a waste of time for our nation and for Obama. The only way he will not be elected again if he does someting ROYALLY and obviously stupid, or he starts being more and more SEEMINGLY like a Republcain, since this nation is growing more and more anti-conservative/GOP as the days press on. The Obama hysteria of 2008 isn't going to be anything compared to 2012! No one is even going to know or care who the GOP candidate is, or any other third party candidate for that matter! It is just going to be Obama fest '12! Obama's supporters are very blinded and seduced by him, no matter what he does or does not do they don't seem to care. He is also putting mandates and actions into place as far as government that will ensure his re-election, as well as continue to dupe his supporters , as well as create such large government social programs that Americans are going to be so completely dependant on the government (without knowing and/or caring) that of course they will re-elect Obama! This nation is going to be more dumbed down and co-dependant than ever, so will only elect presidents that will ensure that no citizen has to do much thinking, self-motivation or take personal responsibility because good ol' Uncle Same is taking care of everything. Hearing "personal accountability" is becoming nearly a swear word for some in the horizon of our modern socilalist government, headed up by Tsar Obama. It will get to a point that people are not even really going to know HOW to be proactive for themselves and create their own pursuits, they won't need to since the government is doing it for them. The 2012 election is going to be an utter waste of time and not going to be backed up by much brain power by voting Americans themselves. Mindlessly they will stumble into the polls , check "Obama/Biden" and walk out while drooling and staggering like brain hungry zombies. It will be more scary than the '08 election, at least this past Novemeber people will still sort of thinking. 2012 all we are going to be are groaning, moaning, wailing corpses "Oooobaaammmaaa" all the way to the election booths. After eight years, we won't even have the right to vote anymore, it will be mostly for novelty and entertainment purposes but won't mean anything. After 2012, it will be either Biden, Clinton or Pelosi...and that will be chosen for us also just like it was chosen for us to vote for Obama. The GOP has a snow balls chance in hell at ever regaining power again! Even Palin is losing Alaska, a year ago she was one of the most beloved governor's in the U.S and had a huge apporval rating, now after the hounds of the biased media tore her to shreds and warped everyone's minds how they wanted to, her strident career is over! The media elects the president and all positions in government, you all just went along with it.

Apr 05 10:33 PM

[Ned Fogler:]

OBAMA WILL NOT ONLY NOT GET RE-ELECTED....HE MIGHT BE FORCED OUT OF OFFICE BEFORE THIS TERM IS COMPLETED.

HE HAS DONE NOTHING THAT HE PROMISED TO DO DURING HIS CAMPAIGN. HE HAS UNDERMINED THE VALUES THAT MADE THIS COUNTRY GREAT. HE IS DESTROYING THE VERY FREEDOMS THAT THE CONSTITUTION PROVIDES. HE HAS DENIGRATED OUR COUNTRY ON FORIEGN SOIL. HE HAS ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT AMERICA IS NOT A CHRISTIAN COUNTRY, BUT IS A MOSLEM COUNTRY.

HE HAS TOLD LIE AFTER LIE TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ABOUT HIS PLAN TO TAKE OVER THE HEALTH INDUSTRY IN THIS COUNTRY.

HE IS A LIAR, A TRAITOR AND A DANGEROUS INDIVIDUA.L. His white house will probably add me to his list of rabble rousers when his spies read this.....he does have such a list. What ever happened to free speach in this country ?

He is a far far cry from turning the econemy arround. He is spending money like one can get more by turning on a water spigot.

hE IS LEADING US INT FINANCIAL DISASTER ! HE HAS DONE EVERY THING WRONG FRON THE GET-GO. tHE ONLTY WAY TO TURN THE ECONOMY ARROUND IS TO CUT TAXES, ELIMINATE THE WITH HOLDING TAX, AND LET THE PEOPLE SPEND THE MONEY. tHIS WILL CREATE JOBS AND AS A RESULT THE gOVERNMENT WILL TAKE IN EVEN MORE NONEY
Ned Fogler [e-mail].

Aug 16 03:59 PM