The ISM Manufacturing Index is projected to rise to 53.7 in tomorrow's February update, based on The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. That reflects a modest rise above the 53.1 reading for January. By contrast, the consensus forecasts in three surveys of economists predict a modest decline for ISM's February report.
Here's a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator's projections:
VAR-8: A vector autoregression model that analyzes eight economic time series in context with the ISM Manufacturing Index. The eight additional series: industrial production, private non-farm payrolls, index of weekly hours worked, US stock market (S&P 500), real personal income less current transfer receipts, real personal consumption expenditures, spot oil prices, and the Treasury yield spread (10 year Note less 3-month T-bill). The forecasts are run in R with the "vars" package.