Where Are Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Doug Casey Investing Their Money in This Market? 40 comments
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I always like to read and listen to veteran investors. Veterans are persons who have long experience or practice in an activity or capacity and these fellows have gone through booms and busts and normally know a trick or two about the markets.
Jim Rogers, the legendary investor, has been a frequent speaker on financial media over the last few weeks and is very bearish on the stock market. Recently he said to an Indian TV Channel, “I have sold all my stocks everywhere in the world, except for some stocks in China. I bought some more stocks in China in October and in November but I am not buying shares anywhere in the world.”
Jim Rogers, a long term bull in commodities, is still expressing his bullish views, and told Maria Bartiromo this week regarding commodities, “I recently bought more of all of them. But I really think agriculture is going to be the best place to be.”
To the contrary, Marc Faber while skeptical and pessimistic on the economy is bullish for the stock market at least short term. Marc told Bloomberg TV last Friday that “a countertrend rally could occur soon where stocks would suddenly rise quite substantially.”
Marc Faber sees opportunities elsewhere and recommends selling short Treasury Bonds and the Japanese Yen. Regarding gold, Marc says it is expensive relative to other commodities and stated that “I’m a little bit careful about the outlook for gold for the rest of the year.”
Doug Casey, the Chairman of Casey Research LLC known for his investment wisdom is very bullish on gold prices and terribly pessimistic on the economy. In a recent interview printed here on Seeking Alpha, Doug said “We’ve definitely entered what I describe as the Greater Depression. It’s not coming; it’s here.”
Regarding agriculture, Doug agrees with Jim Rogers stating that “I’m bullish on agricultural commodities. They ran way up last year and then collapsed again. I think a good case can be made that most of the soft commodities are quite cheap and will go higher.“
Casey likewise Faber, is bearish on Government Bonds and reaffirmed that “Government Bonds are perhaps the worst single thing to be in.” This is the point where they all agree. Consensus investing is dangerous, but this trade deserves a second thought.
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This article has 40 comments:
China's drought is so bad that they are using the Military to fire artillery shells into the atmosphere to try to create rain.
Buy early. IMO
On Mar 02 07:58 AM redbaron wrote:
> Paul, fertilizer without water will not grow crops. Where is California's
> water for agricultural crops going to come from?
I cited the areas of concern, and What it implies for the rest of the US and for the rest of the world because of the conditions in China and Australia.
California's crop failure will impact GDP. How much? I do not know but it definitely has not been factored in by anyone to my knowledge.
An escalation in food inflation will definitely add to the glee amongst Gold advocates and it may even provoke happiness in the Oil/Nat. gas patch.
I haven't devoted much time to the ETF/ETNs which would benefit the most. But with the rationing prospect, I would think that Water ETFs and water utilities must also be reviewed.
All this 3 investors don't have even few millions to invest, they make $ talking, not trading.
Anyone follow these?
Rogers is a too dogmatic and has been terrible for your portfolio. He picked the top (published his book in late 2007) on China and commodities and rode them both all the way down. Rogers might even be right in the end on everything, but I can't handle a 70% drop. He is playing with OPM, but I am playing with my own money. I often wonder if he does the oppositie of what he says and uses his position to create liquidity to dump into. Otherwise, his returns must be horrible.
Casey is too ingrained with a Conspiracy at every Turn and really hasn't changed since the early 1980s.
And Rogers is very likeable, He may believe certain things and Is right about others, his timing is often suspect But He is Definitely right about the Ag sector.
No matter what other Commodity Sectors do, the World's population continues to grow and the Asian people have been exposed to other types of food, especially the Chinese during the Olympic days.
This particular Genie isn't going back into the bottle.
IMO
all these guys are right and all of them are wrong, usually just a timing thing which in times like these are mostly a matter of luck. i doubt even the most 'short-minded' would have said we'd be down 24% for the year on March 2nd.
Or maybe Obama's posse has just the right plan to fix the economy. Ha ha ha, I'm here all week folks.
I can foretell with certain there's going to be world war 3. I know I am right but I can be wrong for my entire lifetime.
On Mar 02 07:58 PM jeerio wrote:
> Rogers' timing is usually off at first, then he gets it right the
> second time he approaches, al la TBT. he also has his own listed
> ag fund, RJA, so that's what he buys when he buys ag.
>
> all these guys are right and all of them are wrong, usually just
> a timing thing which in times like these are mostly a matter of luck.
> i doubt even the most 'short-minded' would have said we'd be down
> 24% for the year on March 2nd.
>
After this I'll follow Rogers and Faber and buy Gold, Silver and Oil, plus GDX.
Carefull though - its will be just another Bear Market Rally.
WHICH SECTOR TO BUY NOW?
WHICH SECTOR---POWER , FINANCE ..............,..........
I am really just into the Agricultural variety. The energy needs of same should help oil and NG.
The Great Depression was extended in part by the flight of farmers out of the Dust Bowl. Besides, then and now are two very different eras on a global basis, transportation wise. I am currently following Rough Rice prices as an indicator for the beginning of the move up.
Anyone have any other indicators to watch?
I doubt Rogers is foolish enough to purchase an ETN in this market, even if it tracks an index that he created.
On Mar 02 07:58 PM jeerio wrote:
> Rogers' timing is usually off at first, then he gets it right the
> second time he approaches, al la TBT. he also has his own listed
> ag fund, RJA, so that's what he buys when he buys ag.
>
> all these guys are right and all of them are wrong, usually just
> a timing thing which in times like these are mostly a matter of luck.
> i doubt even the most 'short-minded' would have said we'd be down
> 24% for the year on March 2nd.
>
He is the director of two funds which are buying greenfield land in Brazil and existing farms in Canada and starting to farm it. The funds are clearing the land, fertilizing it, irrigating it and hiring farmers and, Rogers said, some day will probably sell the land but that is a remote prospect.
"If I'm right, agriculture is going to be one of the greatest industries in the next 20 years, 30 years."
Food inventories are at their lowest in 50 years, Rogers said, while the oil and mining sectors are also good bets.
"Even if demand goes flat or down, as it did in the 30s, as it did in the 70s, you can still have a nice market," he told CNBC. ..."
www.cnbc.com/id/294770...
On Mar 02 08:36 AM Jim Hawthorne wrote:
> One word answer; Canada! via bulk shipments and diversions. Sorry,
> Canada; contrary to the current tone, water is both a resource and
> a commodity. It is not your 'National Treasure'!
>
> On Mar 02 07:58 AM redbaron wrote:
Wearing clothes is optional, depending on where you live.
Eating is not optional, well maybe it is to some. But not to worry, if they stop, they stop.
Face it. People like Rogers are rich "Financial Celebrities" who have their groupies. Networks like CNBC have them on to boost viewership, and the Financial Celebrities get to have their egos stoked. It's not at all clear that his fortune was not primarily the luck of having been with Soros when he was cleaning up in the currency markets.
Rogers recently covered his shorts in the financial s and that's the money hes putting into commodities now, his time frames are longer than most peoples but that's because he's wealthy and doesn't need to think in the shorter term.
His timings very poor on the long side because he snaps things up as soon as he believes they are in bargain territory which can frequently be early into a correction. Hes warned people to be careful about his timing going back to when he first started writing and doing commentary.
On Mar 03 07:48 PM Mark in SF wrote:
> I think Rogers if full of it. Every time I've seen him over the
> last 5 years he says he recently bought some more of XYZ commodity.
> If he's such a commodities bull why wasn't he already heavily invested?
> Is he dollar cost averaging or something?
>
> Face it. People like Rogers are rich "Financial Celebrities" who
> have their groupies. Networks like CNBC have them on to boost viewership,
> and the Financial Celebrities get to have their egos stoked. It's
> not at all clear that his fortune was not primarily the luck of having
> been with Soros when he was cleaning up in the currency markets.
>
>
He's a long term INVESTOR not a trader and he didnt sell commodities or China in the same way Buffet doesnt sell things just because they have had a run.
On Mar 02 01:24 PM IronMeteor wrote:
> Listen to Faber, he always seems to be right and can change his mind.
> I can't remember any time in the past where he was dead wrong. <br/>
>
> Rogers is a too dogmatic and has been terrible for your portfolio.
> He picked the top (published his book in late 2007) on China and
> commodities and rode them both all the way down. Rogers might even
> be right in the end on everything, but I can't handle a 70% drop.
> He is playing with OPM, but I am playing with my own money. I often
> wonder if he does the oppositie of what he says and uses his position
> to create liquidity to dump into. Otherwise, his returns must be
> horrible.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
On Mar 02 10:28 PM kalasend wrote:
> Agreed and timing is everything.
> I can foretell with certain there's going to be world war 3. I know
> I am right but I can be wrong for my entire lifetime.
On Mar 03 02:07 AM zermux wrote:
> Generally there is a 247-254 period between the peaks and troughs.
> The next 254 day period ends on Mar 18.
>
> After this I'll follow Rogers and Faber and buy Gold, Silver and
> Oil, plus GDX.
>
> Carefull though - its will be just another Bear Market Rally.
This is a brilliant article - lots of value add here. Jim Rodgers and Faber don't express their views broadly or clearly enough, so it's great to have your brilliant sinthesys interpertation.
Thank you.
DBA will most likely still has an incomplete 4th wave of the 1-2-3-4-5 pattern to the downside and more likely to start finalizing the c-wave of the a-b-c up pattern before finally going down to complete the 5-th wave.
Weekly 20ema is the major resistance to the upside but I will not be surpriced if DBA will be able to mount that resistance and go for the usual equal move target of $28.14 within 4 to 8 weeks assuming the major indexes went into a relief rally mode.
Assume the 5th wave down will be equal to the 1st wave since the 3rd wave is already extended. It is very seldom that the 5th goes more than 127% of the 1st at this condition. 2nd wave is an extended expanding flat so the 4th wave will be more likely a simple flat following the rule of alternation or a triangle but triangles occur much less often than flats or zigzags. Zigzag cannot happen here since the a-wave of the a-b-c was already retraced more than 61.8%. Likewise, there is no early sign of a potential triangle so the highest probability is a flat patern with a higher low.
Conservative final target to the downside would be from $19.97 if $28.14 kicked it down and $17.47 if the shorts succeed in using the weekly 20ema as their entry. DYY and DAG are going to simply follow DBA since they don't have complete historical charts to base future actions.
This analysis will prove wrong if DBA goes directly above $34.58 since there is a potential truncated 5th wave during the upside run-up to $42.65 at the top. Not the kind of chart pattern any Elliott Wave analyst can have a high confidence short-term trade.
For 2-3 years hold. I think nibbling at this stage will be prudent enought just in case the potential truncated 5th to the upside proved to be correct. Earliest indication of this is if DBA breaks above $30.26 on a straight rally using the weekly chart.
Earlier price projections to the downside are based on the usual assumption of a non-existing truncated 5th at the top.
This is a technical analysis that covers both upside and downside potential on the short term since the pattern during the latter part of 2008 is not definitively identifiable. Definitely not suitable for short term traders.
On Mar 02 02:37 PM Delojozafado wrote:
> Well the ADM-PRA is a very high yielder. I believe it is also a
> convertible. When the agribusiness has it's day ADM will profit
> in fertilizer, seed, storage, processing the whole integrated agriculture
> thing. Collect a sturdy what is now near 10 % dividend with this
> equity knocked down to less than $34, while awaiting the upturn in
> ag. Bunge also has a preferred trading on the pinks.