It Seems Mobile Broadband Is Becoming a Fixed Line Replacement

An ancient question is gaining relevance: will mobile broadband be able to replace fixed line broadband?

At first glance, the answer could be no. The bandwidth difference between fixed and mobile networks remains large. In fixed networks, 1 Gb/s is a reality now in Hong Kong and Lattelecom is working toward half of that by the end of the year. In mobile, Telstra (TLSYY.PK) is leading the pack with 21 Mb/s and upgrading to 42 Mb/s later this year. That's still a large difference and it doesn't look like it will be getting any smaller soon, in a relative sense (Lattelecom already talks about 10 Gb/s, and LTE is some years off).

However, without a video component, mobile broadband looks more and more like a fixed line replacement. HSDPA USB modems have come to the market and gateways are avaliable for connecting up to 4 PCs to the mobile network. The addressable market could be limited (probably business travelers) as broadband is becomig pretty universal and heavy video consumption or P2P file-sharing is not going away (so, giving up on your fixed BB connection doesn't seem realistic). Also, mobile broadband carries much higher opex than fixed broadband, I would suppose.

Now, in Israel operators are asking the government to prevent mobile operators from providing internet services. According to this article, Partner (PTNR) and Cellcom (CEL) are trying to sell mobile broadband services through a gateway. The operators crying foul are asking for 'structural separation' (I think horizontal separation would be a better term) of mobile operators and ISPs. Interesting development, underpinning the view that mobile broadband is indeed becoming a fixed line replacement.

Comments

[logicalthought:]

I don't see how mobile can replace fixed if the cellular carriers continue to impose 5 GB per month data limits; that gets used up pretty damn quickly if you start streaming video.

Mar 03 06:42 AM

[Conan the B...:]

Logical: Mobile Is the product of choice in The New European marketplace. Telephone poles do not dot the landscape.

In Lithuania, when I was there 10 years ago, Mobile Telephones were anchored to steel poles for Public use.

Phone cards giving xyz worth of time to different locations was the norm. Cell phones and Mobile phones were being used in every home that could afford it.

The Old Soviet had centralized all of the Utilities and all roads led to "Rome"...so to speak. Privacy is a Big Issue, it is something that they prize. Mobile phones and Cell phones provide what they require.

So, maybe Mobile will not be a Big issue here, at least not until the Nationwide Broadband Grid is established, it certainly has a following in New Europe.

Mar 03 09:17 AM

[logicalthought:]

You're talking about "voice", IM, etc... I'm talking about heavy streaming data (particularly, video). I've been using wireless broadband cards with my laptops since Verizon had a product years ago with a 16k throughput speed. While my (current) EVDO Rev A card works more like slow-speed DSL (typically, 300k-1 meg), all the carriers recently put a 5 gig per month limit on how much data you're allowed to access without paying massive overage charges. As long as this is the case (and I'm sure they do it because they're somewhat bandwidth-constrained)... cellular broadband will never be able to replace fixed-line broadband for home users.


On Mar 03 09:17 AM paultaut wrote:

> Logical: Mobile Is the product of choice in The New European marketplace.
> Telephone poles do not dot the landscape.
>
> In Lithuania, when I was there 10 years ago, Mobile Telephones were
> anchored to steel poles for Public use.
>
> Phone cards giving xyz worth of time to different locations was the
> norm. Cell phones and Mobile phones were being used in every home
> that could afford it.
>
> The Old Soviet had centralized all of the Utilities and all roads
> led to "Rome"...so to speak. Privacy is a Big Issue, it is something
> that they prize. Mobile phones and Cell phones provide what they
> require.
>
> So, maybe Mobile will not be a Big issue here, at least not until
> the Nationwide Broadband Grid is established, it certainly has a
> following in New Europe.

Mar 03 10:07 AM

[Conan the B...:]

L: I stand corrected, For a while anyway.

I read some where, about the ability to create Virtual Hardware via software. When installed on a Mobile or cell phone, it would be able to simulate the creation of Mobile Hardwired Networks.

Would something like this work in re the requirements necessary for heavy graphics streaming.

Mar 03 03:21 PM

[Stephen Str...:]

In the UK, my phone gives around 1Mb/s. Great, until you realise my fixed broadband has been upgraded to "24" Mb/s ie 9Mb/s. And the uplink is similarly an order of magnitude faster on my fixed line.

When the fixed line goes wrong though (temporarily but regularly), the mobile is a handy backup - and enough at least to make videos over the web even if streaming is not always full frame rate.

Mar 03 06:22 PM

[logicalthought:]

I'm not sure about what a "virtual hardware" product is, but just to be clear, you *can* stream video today over a 3G mobile network and it looks okay on a small screen. (And the new 4G LTE network that Verizon will start rolling out next year will supposedly be 100x faster, and thus easily suitable for HD video.) But last time I streamed video over my cellular card, it used data at the rate of over 100 mb/hour, which would give me 50 hours of usage (around 1.7 hours/day) for the month before the massive overage charges would've kicked in. (And I'm sure that HD video would be massively MORE data-intensive.) So, if the future of TV and movie delivery is the internet, it won't be over cellular networks unless the pricing plan is completely restructured.


On Mar 03 03:21 PM paultaut wrote:

> L: I stand corrected, For a while anyway.
>
> I read some where, about the ability to create Virtual Hardware via
> software. When installed on a Mobile or cell phone, it would be able
> to simulate the creation of Mobile Hardwired Networks.
>
> Would something like this work in re the requirements necessary for
> heavy graphics streaming.

Mar 03 07:18 PM

[Conan the B...:]

All of the apps I use on the Internet are virtual. There is nothing for a virus or trojan to latch onto. And if one manages to lock on something, when I leave it gets left behind.

The way I understood it, the hardware necessary to stream video is too large to embed on a Cell phone but the software emulates the Hardware.

I saw it exactly Once, been trying to find it again since.

To no avail.

Mar 04 01:36 AM

[Mobile Broa...:]

In one word; No.

Well, not for a very long time. ISP's would need to massively increase not only speeds but download allowances so enable consumers to use mobile broadband as they do fixed line.

T-Mobile have confirmed that they are investigating their upload speeds to around 14mbps, however it is unlikely that any normal user would have access to speeds anywhere near this, even if implemented.

A price reduction also wouldn't go amiss. 3 have recently taken a step in the right direction by reducing their 15GB service to just £15 per month, from £30 per month.

Mar 17 04:21 PM