Fed Up with the Generalizing About CEE Markets

I am fed up with the generalization of emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe. You can listen everyday on CNBC or read at Financial Times how bad thins are in the CEE markets. This is Completely wrong. As bad as things are with CEE countries with high debt (Baltic countries, Hungary), it does not concern the Czech Republic or Poland.

It seems that many people understand that it is impossible to throw all countries into one bag. There is an indication that the forint depreciated significantly in the middle. In the market, according to the spreading fears, Hungary will need additional help from the International Monetary Fund.

You can see below that the Czech crown appreciated against all currencies, but mostly against the Hungarian forint.

• Exchange Rates 04.03.2009
• EMU EUR 27.710 -0.876%
• U.S. USD 22.076 -0.402%
• Hungary HUF 8.935 -1.910%
• Poland PLN 5.878 -0.424%
• Romania RON 6.461 -0.646%

Comments

[Mad Hedge F...:]

I thing eastern europe is worse of than people realize. While American banks have their subprime crisis, European banks are being dragged under by their lending to emerging economies in Eastern Europe. Led by UniCredit in Italy, Austria’s Erste Group Bank and Raiffeisen International, France’s Societe Generale, Belgium’s KBC, and Hungary’s OTP, banks have lent $1.6 trillion to companies in these formerly communist countries at cheap rates, with minimal documentation, and few questions asked. The easily available credit caused local money supplies to explode, and sparked bull markets in both stocks and currencies. Emerging Europe grew at double and triple rates in the West, as local companies pumped up on steroids became the master of leverage. Now $400-$600 billion is due for rollovers this year from nonexistent credit markets, and the chickens….make that vultures, have come home to roost. Economic growth has fallen off a cliff, with Poland’s seasonally adjusted industrial output down in December a precipitous 7.4% YOY. The Polish stock market fell 48% last year and the zloty is off 40% against the dollar from its June peak. The Central European Equity Fund (CEE) has crashed 80% in eight months. The crisis is so severe, it may postpone Poland’s entry into the Euro block, which had been scheduled for 2011. Home mortgage borrowers are in especially bad shape. Up to 50% of their loans were denominated in Swiss francs, so the collapsing Polish currency has caused a near doubling of borrowers’ monthly payments and principals since last year. Austria really has its knickers in a twist, as these heavily syndicated loans account for 80% of GDP. A 10% default rate could wipe out the entire banking system there. Germany has the smallest loan exposure, but has the most to lose, with 25% of its exports headed east. It is now in negotiation with its partners in the EC to cobble together a bailout with the help of the IMF to provide bridge financing for these loans, and hopefully ward off a further economic collapse. It looks like the headlines in Europe are about to get uncharacteristically sensational.

Mar 05 01:01 PM