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"Felix" means lucky, in Latin. But this Felix hasn't had much luck: after investing a whopping 50% downpayment into his $600,000 California dream home, he's seen the value of his house fall to $270,000, even as the amount outstanding on his mortgage has ballooned to $350,000, putting him among the 8.3 million Americans with negative equity. This is what CNBC calls a "Dollar Dilemma":

Felix asks, quite sensibly, why he shouldn't just walk away from his house. California is a non-recourse state, which means that the lender, was fully aware from day one that if the value of the mortgage ever exceeded the value of the house, there would be a strong financial incentive for the borrower to do just that.

The reaction of the CNBC hosts makes it seem as though Felix had asked whether he should sell his grandmother into slavery. "If you agreed and you signed that contract, you have to stick to it," admonishes Carmen Wong Ulrich. "It's all about that commitment that you made to the house."

To the house? How can anybody make a commitment to a house? I can see that Felix signed a contract with a lender, but remember that the lender was writing negative-amortization interest-only mortgages and then turning around and selling them off to an investment bank to securitize, pocketing an up-front profit. Such lenders kept on making this trade until there was no more appetite for such loans any more, at which point they closed their doors, keeping all their old profits and leaving the losses with the investment banks and the banks' clients.

So I don't think that Felix has any kind of moral obligation to the lender, nor to the sophisticated financial institutions which ended up buying the lenders' mortgages and who should have known exactly what they were doing.

I've quoted Mark Gimein on this subject in the past, more than once, but he really did write the best single blog entry when it comes to such matters, so I'd urge Felix to listen to Mark rather than to the shills of the financial-services industry on CNBC. Mark explains the morality of the situation very well, and ends with a bit more on how such decisions are likely to play out in practice:

Journalists are mistaken when they imagine that a credit score is a judgment on the character of borrowers. It's not. It's a judgment about the likelihood of someone repaying a loan. Bad marks like a foreclosure affect this. But being overextended on credit affects this even more. You might imagine that if you have the magic word "foreclosure" on your record you are automatically a worse risk than someone who doesn't. That's just not true. Lenders don't like to lend money to people who have not paid their debts in the past. But what they like even less is lending money to people who have a mortgage they can't afford and are likely to stop paying their debts in the future.

Now there might be good reasons for Felix to stay in his home: for one thing, he can happily continue paying interest only and no principal for another year or so, which wouldn't harm him very much. And, of course, this is his dream house: if he rents somewhere else, he probably won't be as happy with his home. But his wife is urging him to just walk away, and a happy wife is always a good thing.

The CNBC hosts, however, get unbelievably holier-than-thou with Felix, accusing this man -- who, remember, has just lost his entire $300,000 downpayment -- of profligacy and of trying to beggar his neighbors by bringing down property values even further.

At the very least, I think that Felix should consider a strategic delinquency, when his interest-only period expires. If the servicer isn't talking to him now, then they surely will after receiving no mortgage payments for a couple of months. At that point, he can request a large principal reduction and make a credible threat that if he doesn't get it, he'll mail in the keys to the house. And if the servicer is sensible, they'll give him what he's asking for. They hold no cards at all in this negotation -- although they do seem to have done a magnificent job with the CNBC types.

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This article has 66 comments:

  •  
    Felix, you are obviously a socialist, maexist and/or communist. Don't make me berate you in public.

    Sincerely,
    Rick Santelli
    Mar 05 02:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There is something more important. Stop watching CNBC and switch to the Cartoon Network.
    Mar 05 03:02 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Felix, if you do decide to walk you should throw a party for Top 100 posters on Seeking Alpha. Wait, that's not you on the show? Oh snap. That Felix is going to pay rent anyway, so he might as well stay in his home.
    Mar 05 03:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good call. We should all just stop paying on our debts when the value of the item drops below our loan amount. I guess everyone who drives a new car doesn't owe the dealer anything because we all know that the car loses a significant amount of its value as soon as it leaves the lot. If you sign a contract to pay, just pay the bill. It's not an overly difficult concept.

    We may be on the way to being a socialist country but please don't encourage it.
    Mar 05 03:07 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It is unlikely that Felix would be facing this dilemma had the mortgage note contained recourse provisions for the lender.

    And It should be no surprise that many of the states with the highest foreclosure rates also happen to be non-recourse states.
    Mar 05 03:07 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I guess anyone who buys a new car shouldn't have to pay the loan because of the value the car loses when it is driven off the lot.

    Be realistic. Pay the bill you owe. It's not a difficult concept.
    Mar 05 03:09 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good for you Felix, walk away! Stick it to these rogue bankster. It is everybody for himself/herself. Individuals acting lawfully in their self interest is the cornerstone of a capitalistic society. All these do-gooders like Obama who can't leave us alone, will end up harming us more.
    Mar 05 03:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    As much as it sickens me, if I were in his place, I would probably walk away. A contract is a contract, but both parties should always re-negotiate if it is an item of mutual self interest.
    Mar 05 03:16 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Debt is secured. Felix by law can walk out of the mortgage if he feels like that. What's wrong with this picture? By walking out Felix doesn't break contract, bank takes collateral, everybody should be happy. Bank took this risk when it wrote the contract, bank expected home values to go up forever. Well, assumption was wrong and bank lost money.

    Don't bother me with morals. Felix is no more morally obligated to continue paying this mortgage than bank was obligated to properly estimate risk and write sensible contract.
    Mar 05 03:18 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Society invented contracts and laws so that the question of whether to pay or not could be considered a legal issue, rather than an unsolvable moral issue. Your obligation under your contract is exactly what the contract says and exactly what the law requires. You can walk away from the collateral under the terms of the contract and state law, just as the person who sold you the house for $600k is able to walk away with that cash and you have no recourse to him/her now that the house is worth less. Those are the rules.

    Does this have a negative impact on society or innocent bystanders? Yes and no. Neighbors' houses decline in value, which equals the better deal that new buyers can get, which nets to zero cost/benefit. Property tax collections go down, the effect of which is good or bad depending on your ideology. Your lender loses hundreds of thousands of dollars processing the foreclosure but the lender's money has flowed to the person who sold you the house - another net effect of zero. Expenses are incurred in the foreclosure process, moving, selling, storage, redecorating, etc. but one man's cost is another's revenue - another net effect of zero.

    If you worry about these kinds of moral dilemmas, you might as well agonize about which car company you want to keep in business when you buy a car.
    Mar 05 03:19 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There's a very important distinction between recourse and non-recourse states, and when you look at the economics of busted mortgages, the financial choices faced by a homeowner in a recourse vs a non-recourse state are so different as to essentially be a different country. We risk opening up a major "fissure" in the US, by having incentives that are so radically different between states.

    In fact, when you think about it, that fissure has already opened: the states with the massive foreclosure rates are all non-recourse states. California, Florida, Nevada (a bit more complicated there, but basically non-recourse)

    Basically, the non-recourse option is an "implicit put" from a legal/financial perspective. People who have puts would, all other things being equal, be more likely to take on more debt and more risk in the pursuit of gain, because their downside is minimized.

    And the "Felix" of the call is atypical -- he put down a very big down payment. . . if you think about a California buyer, who put down %10 and is now deeply underwater; he's heavily incentivized to "walk away".

    We should take care to structure our incentives to do the things which are for the public good, and the low down payment, non-recourse mortgage is not that at all.
    Mar 05 03:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Felix should stay in his house and sue his lender for fraud. That way, he might be able to keep the house and his money.

    How can the justification that "Felix should've known better" be taken seriously when the lender told him he qualified for the loan?

    If the should-have-known-bett... blame should be placed on anyone, it should be the financial professionals that told Felix he was qualified.
    Mar 05 03:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Get real, comparing the purchase of a House and the purchase of an auto is stupid, I think that the person confronted with Felix's problem has to pencil out rent versus mortgage, mortgage versus the delights of homeownership like maintenance, taxes, insurance, landscaping and the possibility of someone putting a mobile home on the lot next door. If it doesn't come close then give the lender the option of "renegotiate the loan or I walk".


    On Mar 05 03:09 PM Jarid wrote:

    > I guess anyone who buys a new car shouldn't have to pay the loan
    > because of the value the car loses when it is driven off the lot.
    >
    >
    > Be realistic. Pay the bill you owe. It's not a difficult concept.
    Mar 05 03:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I guess not paying your mortgage is like divorcing your wife because she isnt as young as when you married her. WAIT A MINUTE. . .that is what most of us Americans do. . . wow
    Mar 05 03:27 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Reading Mr. Salmon's post and most of the responses gives us all a nice view of why the U.S. and U.K. are collapsing as economies and as societies.

    Non-recourse mortgages simply transfer the cost of default from deadbeats (like Felix) onto creditworthy and ethical borrowers, or onto taxpayers if the bank itself defaults. This is called "socializing the costs".

    Socializing costs reduces the economic efficiency of the society and make it poorer. There are limits to socializing costs and Obama is testing them.
    Mar 05 03:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If the markets were regulated, this caller would lose his down payment if he walked away and that would have been the cost of walking away. If Felix hasn't paid any down payment, he is better off walking away obviously. But the call was suspicious, someone with relatively high income and 300k question would have referred to a lawyer rather than a TV talking heads - so the caller is just making a rubbish call as a form of entertainment.

    I wonder if Felix the author made this call.
    Mar 05 03:44 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I wonder where Felix lives? He seems like a yuppie type who would live in L.A. or S.F, but you can't by for 600k there. So he must be in the central valley or inland empire to lose more than 50%.
    Mar 05 03:48 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I just remembered something else. If everyone put 50% down like Felix we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.
    Mar 05 04:01 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    CNBC is a joke.
    Mar 05 04:02 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There's no information in the article to indicate Felix was not qualified. He simply got a negative amortization mortgage, which does not speak to his ability to pay, only to the structure of the repayments. He's not contemplating walking away because he can't afford the house. He's simply considering his financial options.


    On Mar 05 03:20 PM Adam O. wrote:

    > Felix should stay in his house and sue his lender for fraud. That
    > way, he might be able to keep the house and his money.
    >
    > How can the justification that "Felix should've known better" be
    > taken seriously when the lender told him he qualified for the loan?
    >
    >
    > If the should-have-known-bett... blame should be placed on anyone,
    > it should be the financial professionals that told Felix he was qualified.
    Mar 05 04:07 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Why does this make Felix a "deadbeat?" The bank gets the collateral (the house) back. Felix loses his down payment and any monthly payments he has made. Granted in this particular scenario the bank is going to take a loss as they made a loan for more than what the collateral was worth but that isn't Felix's fault.

    On Mar 05 03:43 PM Steve in Greensboro wrote:

    > Reading Mr. Salmon's post and most of the responses gives us all
    > a nice view of why the U.S. and U.K. are collapsing as economies
    > and as societies.
    >
    > Non-recourse mortgages simply transfer the cost of default from deadbeats
    > (like Felix) onto creditworthy and ethical borrowers, or onto taxpayers
    > if the bank itself defaults. This is called "socializing the costs".
    >
    >
    > Socializing costs reduces the economic efficiency of the society
    > and make it poorer. There are limits to socializing costs and Obama
    > is testing them.
    Mar 05 04:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  

    Herbie,

    Your days were up exactly 77 years ago. And you can't even spell "Marxist". Whooey, what kind of half-ass John Bircher ARE you, anyway?

    On Mar 05 02:58 PM Herbert Hoover wrote:

    > Felix, you are obviously a socialist, maexist and/or communist. Don't
    > make me berate you in public.
    >
    > Sincerely,
    > Rick Santelli
    Mar 05 04:45 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The LAST thing Felix needs to worry about is ANY admonishment from that Kool-Aid drinking Cornucopian Carmen Wong Ulrich or any of the Kool-Aid Drinkers on CNBC think.

    You guys have to watch this clip from the Daily Show. You will never see CNBC the same again.....gauranteed!!...

    www.thedailyshow.com/f...
    Mar 05 04:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Can we discuss the morality of the bank executives paying themselves huge compensation packages for the past 6 years while they were bankrupting their companies with derivative liability? I'm not thrilled with people walking away from their mortgages but I am far more concerned with the white collar criminals in the financial industry who have cost our country trillions of dollars.
    Mar 05 04:51 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I wonder if Felix considered the consequences when he got his "dream home"

    I don't blame him for walking away but don't act like he isn't at least partially at fault here.

    I have my doubts about people who call CNBC for financial advice.
    Mar 05 04:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  

    Alex,

    Spot on! The debt is secured by the house and nothing more. To default on the note is NOT "breaking the contract"; any such secured loan contract specifically includes provisions to be invoked in the event of default.

    The loan negotiators knew that neither they nor the bank "lending" the money was really on the hook for losses in the event of default; they and the loan analysts at Countrywide, Golden West and WaMu are the genuine perps in the line-up. The bank which approved the loan planned from the first second that the request landed in it's electronic in-box to package the debt with other similar contracts, hash them up, and sell them on the unsophisticated and gullible investors around the world.

    Now it's true that those investors have been cruelly served by the system and were misled by the connivance of the rating agencies, who should be immediately broken up, pulverized, and cast to the winds. But those investors will still have something after the dust (from the agencies) settles: they'll own Felix's house and should be able to recover something on the order of 50% of their investment.

    The oldest saying in the books about investing pertains: "If it's too good to be true, it probably isn't."

    On Mar 05 03:18 PM Alex Filonov wrote:

    > Debt is secured. Felix by law can walk out of the mortgage if he
    > feels like that. What's wrong with this picture? By walking out Felix
    > doesn't break contract, bank takes collateral, everybody should be
    > happy. Bank took this risk when it wrote the contract, bank expected
    > home values to go up forever. Well, assumption was wrong and bank
    > lost money.
    >
    > Don't bother me with morals. Felix is no more morally obligated to
    > continue paying this mortgage than bank was obligated to properly
    > estimate risk and write sensible contract.
    Mar 05 04:57 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Sounds like the moral weight is shared equally. Most of us are to blame for this mess.
    Mar 05 05:12 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "So I don't think that Felix has any kind of moral obligation to the lender, nor to the sophisticated financial institutions which ended up buying the lenders' mortgages and who should have known exactly what they were doing."

    WHAT?????????
    Thats the reason I am torn whether I should stay in America or go back to the old country (i immigrated here 20 years ago). What happened to the country I loved? Probably people like Salmon, who claim IT IS AN OK TO SCREW PEOPLE WHO LENT YOU MONEY!!!!! What a moral decay!!! It is actually getting more and more pronounced in the whole culture... it is called "SCREW EVERYBODY".. IS NOT IT ONE OF THE DEADLY SINS, FELIX?
    Mar 05 05:24 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Rick you are a free market socialist, a communist, a marxist, don't let me berate you in public.


    On Mar 05 02:58 PM Herbert Hoover wrote:

    > Felix, you are obviously a socialist, maexist and/or communist. Don't
    > make me berate you in public.
    >
    > Sincerely,
    > Rick Santelli
    Mar 05 05:42 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You are bringing over this Russian mentality of "high moral standard" here to this society, thank you Alex! Why dont you think of moving back there, to good old Russia, where they wont think twice before phucking with you and your money? Dont bother you with morals? So why is it an OKEY for you to live without morals, but expect others to have them, huh? By the looks of it, you prefer living in Cali, rather than Moscow, I really wonder why?


    On Mar 05 03:18 PM Alex Filonov wrote:

    > Debt is secured. Felix by law can walk out of the mortgage if he
    > feels like that. What's wrong with this picture? By walking out Felix
    > doesn't break contract, bank takes collateral, everybody should be
    > happy. Bank took this risk when it wrote the contract, bank expected
    > home values to go up forever. Well, assumption was wrong and bank
    > lost money.
    >
    > Don't bother me with morals. Felix is no more morally obligated to
    > continue paying this mortgage than bank was obligated to properly
    > estimate risk and write sensible contract.
    Mar 05 05:48 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    those of you commenting on contract law and morality might consider that the lender made a promise to loan and the borrower made a promise to pay. that pretty much sums it up. you may have a legal right to walk away, but you don't have anything to stand on when it comes to keeping your promises. almost anyone will forgive you if you lose your job and cannot pay, but no one will trust you if you have the ability to pay and refuse.
    Mar 05 05:50 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It is exactly this attitude that got us into trouble in the first place...

    Unreal.
    Mar 05 05:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Screw CNBC AND THEIR CARMEN, KRAMER, KUDLOW CROC OF KAKA!
    Mar 05 06:12 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If Felix simply can not keep up with the payment, it is not just wise for Felix to just walk away, it is also his only option. You can't pay then you can't pay. That's it.

    On the other hand, if Felix is capable to maintain the payment, should he walk away just because his equity is upside down? I don't think so. Just like you should not sell a stock at the low, you should not walk away from a house at the low point of equity. You walk away and you have realized your total loss of the down payment and you have nothing to keep. You stay with the house, the equity may come back.

    In the current market condition, house prices are depressed BELOW their rightful value. Is the house which was bought for $600K really worth only $300K today? I challenge any one to show me that exactly the same hosue can be put together at a total cost of mere $300K. It can not be done. Every home builders are losing heavily. That means every house is sold far below their cost.

    Cash buyers of houses can pick up very good deals nowadays.
    tinyurl.com/d25abb

    I think people should try to keep their homes as much as possible, regardless of the equity situation. The home is a shelter to keep you healthy and is an invaluable asset as the US dollar loses value quick.
    Mar 05 06:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    A house is an investment. Morality has no place in investing. If this were a stock, you would cut your loses and move on. Grow up people.
    Mar 05 06:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Another brilliant moment on CNBC ...
    Mar 05 06:27 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Jon Stewart does an excellent number on CNBC; classic!
    www.hulu.com/watch/608...
    Mar 05 06:47 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Should corporations do the same, or should they calculate how best to maximize profits? If the latter, then won't there be cases where breaking the contract would best maximize profits. If we are all supposed to be capitalists, then shouldn't we walk away from mortgages that are not benefitting us financially as long as walking away won't cause more financial damage than staying? In fact, it looks to me like the self-interested capitalist should walk away from a house that isn't working out for him or her. Thus, the contemporary phenomenon of people walking away from houses is not a sign of encroaching socialism; it is a sign of the success of a certain sort of capitalism that promotes the model of the rational maximizer.


    On Mar 05 03:07 PM Jarid wrote:

    > Good call. We should all just stop paying on our debts when the
    > value of the item drops below our loan amount. I guess everyone
    > who drives a new car doesn't owe the dealer anything because we all
    > know that the car loses a significant amount of its value as soon
    > as it leaves the lot. If you sign a contract to pay, just pay the
    > bill. It's not an overly difficult concept.
    >
    > We may be on the way to being a socialist country but please don't
    > encourage it.
    Mar 05 07:16 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Remember, it is a secured loan. When the closing papers are signed, the bank gets the deed and the borrower gets the keys.The contract explicitly states that the borrower is responsible for the loan *or* the bank gets the house. It is an implicit put option that the borrower is getting, and in no way is there a moral quandary were it to be exercised.
    Mar 05 07:33 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The comment "In the current market condition, house prices are depressed BELOW their rightful value" is the dumbest thing I've heard all year. So you're calling the bottom? It think the crack you smoke is priced below rightful value.

    As for "the promise to repay", people need to rethink what a mortgage contract is. It's not a promise to repay. It's a promise to live up to the remedies spelled out in the contract in the event that you do or do not pay.
    Mar 05 08:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Felix- It's you and your ilk who got us into this mess. You're a scumbag.
    Mar 05 08:31 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I can't believe it took as long as Mark Anthony to come up with the obvious. Investment is a second (but important) consideration in owning a home.

    If you can keep paying the mortgage continue to do so and live in your house. Otherwise I think you should change your name to Niki Santoro.
    Mar 05 08:42 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I think Felix has taken his fair share of a beating. Just sort of reminds me of the Warren Beatty as Bugsy Siegal line.."Everybody needs a fresh start once in a while"
    Mar 05 08:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Don't walk, Felix. Run. Run as fast as possible.

    It's a rational default and would be a far better allocation of your capital and productivity. The golden rule of capitalism is to maximize your returns. This house is a negative return and it would be against the principles of capitalism for you to stay. There is no moral quandary here. Your prime commitment is not to your neighbours, but your own financial well-being. Paying into negative equity is anti-capitalist.

    Landlords are desperate for your business. You will have plenty of more affordable housing options and in the end may be able to purchase your dream house back at a price more in line with its real market value.
    Mar 05 09:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Thanks for the clip. It's a hoot.


    On Mar 05 04:49 PM Sentinel wrote:

    > The LAST thing Felix needs to worry about is ANY admonishment from
    > that Kool-Aid drinking Cornucopian Carmen Wong Ulrich or any of the
    > Kool-Aid Drinkers on CNBC think.
    >
    > You guys have to watch this clip from the Daily Show. You will never
    > see CNBC the same again.....gauranteed!!...
    >
    > www.thedailyshow.com/f...
    Mar 05 10:16 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Felix, few people would actually share a REAL story like this -- so I congratulate you. The financial institutions have zero morality and they would take advantage of you in a heartbeat if they could make money on it. Capitalism works by pushing morality down to the 90% of the population, while they themselves cut people off at the knees for a profit using the excuse that, "they are just following business practices," or some such BS. Capitalism works OK (I own a business myself), but a business is not a moral organization. It only creates a lot of PR so the population BELIEVES it has some moral obligation. My suggestion is to do what is best for YOU just as the corporation will always do what is best for it. But, wharever you do, don't quit writing articles. Yours are some of the best.
    Mar 05 10:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I think it's a different Felix.


    On Mar 05 10:26 PM hoover wrote:

    > Felix, few people would actually share a REAL story like this --
    > so I congratulate you. The financial institutions have zero morality
    > and they would take advantage of you in a heartbeat if they could
    > make money on it. Capitalism works by pushing morality down to the
    > 90% of the population, while they themselves cut people off at the
    > knees for a profit using the excuse that, "they are just following
    > business practices," or some such BS. Capitalism works OK (I own
    > a business myself), but a business is not a moral organization.
    > It only creates a lot of PR so the population BELIEVES it has some
    > moral obligation. My suggestion is to do what is best for YOU just
    > as the corporation will always do what is best for it. But, wharever
    > you do, don't quit writing articles. Yours are some of the best.
    Mar 05 10:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You know, killing a person is against the law, but so? You kill, you get caught, you get convicted, you go to prison. What's the problem here? There is nothing stopping me from murder, it is just I could go to jail if I do it.

    Felix, you say the house was your dream house, correct? You are certainly not getting any of your money back if you walk out on it. Stay in the beautiful house, entertain your guests, live out the dream. I have a nice house too, our guests wow with the view when they first enter it (however, I doubt it approaches your view). I love it and am fighting to keep it.

    You know the old saying, "make hay when the sun shines", well the sun shone for way too long and everyone in the housing industry from builders, to financiers, to speculators were out in the fields making hay. Sooner or later you gotta leave the hay alone to get stores up for the winter (or if you are an apiarist you gotta let the bees keep enough honey to overwinter). Unfortunately, people kept making hay and eventually the we killed the hay field.

    Everyone kept doubling down and pushing it. Anytime inflation started to rear its head and the Fed would start to focus on inflation how many pundits would we hear scream bloody murder about that? Well, we are paying for pumping the bubble.

    Its like the party in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, it kept going and going and going, but when it ended it ended in a very bad way.
    Mar 05 10:51 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    On Mar 05 08:25 PM cadoggy wrote:

    > The comment "In the current market condition, house prices are depressed
    > BELOW their rightful value" is the dumbest thing I've heard all year.
    > So you're calling the bottom? It think the crack you smoke is priced
    > below rightful value.

    Am I calling a bottom? Of course I am not calling a bottom. Houses, just like stocks, can go below their rightful value. But it doesn't mean it is the bottom. It can go further lower, stay there for further time, before the value goes up again. Houses have very long period for adjusting supply and demand. They do not move as quick as stocks.

    It is a FACT that house prices are now BELOW their rightful value. Virtually every home builders are sellig houses at LOSS. That is a fact and that tells you houses are below fair value. Economy 101 will work and many home builders will go out of business, cutting off supply and eventually bring the price back up. But I see very few home builder actually going bankrupt yet. So we may still have some room to go and home builders stillneed to go out of business to bring the over-supply under-control. But from an investment point of view, any thing that is below fair value is a long term buy.

    > As for "the promise to repay", people need to rethink what a mortgage
    > contract is. It's not a promise to repay. It's a promise to live
    > up to the remedies spelled out in the contract in the event that
    > you do or do not pay.

    You can't pay then you walk away. You can pay and you stay in your home. Simple as that.
    Mar 05 10:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    #01^ $#!+ Mark Anthony,

    An actual believer in supply & demand on a finance site, I thought they were extinct here.

    Here in our housing market we had a number of builders building absolute $#!+ homes. A buddy of mine was talking about a few homes he was looking at and talked about how shoddily they were built, basically he said most of the homes were only good for the lot they sat on, and those are brand new constructions.

    Those builders are long gone from our area. However, builders on the other end of the spectrum are also in dire straits. One builder who specialized in top dollar homes (building for Packer players & the like, my recollection is he built Brett Favre's Green Bay house and others), is now sitting around twiddling his thumbs.

    My brother who works for a guy that builds average homes is now spending most of his time on commercial jobs (to be fair, residential construction season probably does not kick off for about one month from now).

    The junk bottom-feeder builders are dead, the easy money is gone.
    Mar 05 11:13 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Houses are not below their rightful value because there is persistent deflation. Therefore the real value can also decline, as it did in the Great Depression.

    Felix should walk precisely because he will never recover his value. He has already paid for his house with his $300k. Anything after that is utter foolishness.

    There were millions of homes in the US built to be be sold to non-prime borrowers, like Felix. The only way the supply and demand can be brought to balance is if deflation stops, and if millions of borrowers who are in arrears already foreclosed, or about to enter rational default are replaced by prime worthy borrowers. Those borrowers are not readily available and the economy is actually shedding them faster than they are entering the workforce.

    In the Great Depression (and in Japan still) housing prices took decades to recover and the cost of housing (buying land, building, permits) declined along with it. It is happening again.
    Mar 06 07:30 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    In CA, only purchase money mortgages (mortgages originated to finance the purchase of a home) are non-recourse. However, most, if not all, mortgages originated to refinance an existing mortgage are recourse. That's a big hook for a homeowner to consider before doing a refi.

    So, it's important before deciding whether to walk to first determine whether the mortgage you gave the bank is recourse or non-recourse.
    Mar 06 11:25 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    We put 20% down on our condo in CA as well. ($78K in our case) We have a 30 yr fixed rate. We've been making our payments for 4 yrs. Now moving out of state for a better job. What do you do? You can't sell it without still owing money, you can't refinance to lower the payment. We don't want to take on the expense of trying to rent an out of state property when current rents don't even cover the monthly nut. We've lost considerably in our 401K, etc. I don't know what we're going to do. You can't even make an informed decision because the bottom hasn't hit yet. Our only sensible choice for financial survival may be to walk. If anyone has constructive suggestions, please share them.


    On Mar 05 03:20 PM Crocodilian wrote:

    > There's a very important distinction between recourse and non-recourse
    > states, and when you look at the economics of busted mortgages, the
    > financial choices faced by a homeowner in a recourse vs a non-recourse
    > state are so different as to essentially be a different country.
    > We risk opening up a major "fissure" in the US, by having incentives
    > that are so radically different between states.
    >
    > In fact, when you think about it, that fissure has already opened:
    > the states with the massive foreclosure rates are all non-recourse
    > states. California, Florida, Nevada (a bit more complicated there,
    > but basically non-recourse)
    >
    > Basically, the non-recourse option is an "implicit put" from a legal/financial
    > perspective. People who have puts would, all other things being equal,
    > be more likely to take on more debt and more risk in the pursuit
    > of gain, because their downside is minimized.
    >
    > And the "Felix" of the call is atypical -- he put down a very big
    > down payment. . . if you think about a California buyer, who put
    > down %10 and is now deeply underwater; he's heavily incentivized
    > to "walk away".
    >
    > We should take care to structure our incentives to do the things
    > which are for the public good, and the low down payment, non-recourse
    > mortgage is not that at all.
    Mar 06 01:18 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    In any state that offers the lender a choice of judicial foreclosure versus non-judicial foreclosure the lender almost always choose non. And in most states that means even a recourse loan carries no further liability.

    In essence, all first liens are de facto non recourse.
    Mar 06 01:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    On Mar 06 01:18 PM House Poor wrote:

    > We put 20% down on our condo in CA as well. ($78K in our case) We
    > have a 30 yr fixed rate. We've been making our payments for 4 yrs.
    > Now moving out of state for a better job. What do you do? You can't
    > sell it without still owing money, you can't refinance to lower the
    > payment. We don't want to take on the expense of trying to rent an
    > out of state property when current rents don't even cover the monthly
    > nut. We've lost considerably in our 401K, etc. I don't know what
    > we're going to do. You can't even make an informed decision because
    > the bottom hasn't hit yet. Our only sensible choice for financial
    > survival may be to walk. If anyone has constructive suggestions,
    > please share them.

    House Poor:

    Try to keep the house and rent it out. The rental may or may not cover the whole expense but at least it makes it easier for you to keep the house. Hopefully as more and more people lsoe their homes and enter the rental market, the rental will go up.

    Keeping a house is an invaliable physical asset amid a looming dollar collapse. Your house will soon be worth $10M while you only owe the banks $300K. Don't assume you are rich as $10M in US$ only buys you an average house by then.

    If you lose your house now, by walking away, you may never be able to buy another house again. Keep it as much as you can.

    Mar 06 01:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Regarding the question of homes being undervalued in comparison to replacement costs... keep in mind that commodities prices (stuff used to build homes) have come way down.

    The replacement cost of a home during the boom was much higher than it is today due to the cliff diving demand for things like concrete, wood, and roofing. Just check UFPI stock ticker for example.
    Mar 06 02:03 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cadoggy,

    My wife and I started the construction of our house in October of 2007. I don't know how many times I had the subs and my buddy (who was the real genius behind this project - same guy I talk about who looking at those junk houses) tell me I missed 25% or similar increases in product pricing. However, some of that was made up by having to heat an uninsulated & unsided building in a Wisconsin January.

    I was speculating whether or not I should have held off till now to build given the rates, commodities, and labor costs. Our general consensus was that financing the project would have been a lot harder.
    Mar 06 05:47 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Mortgage Lenders should have known that borrowers in Lotus Land would be deadbeats. It is just the culture in that part of the country to try to screw someone who trusted you with money. As a practical matter, I expect that they hold contests to see who can screw lenders out of more money.
    Mar 06 06:13 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good luck getting a mortgage loan in the future if you walk away from an underwater home with a larger loan. You will now become a renter. We need more renters for all of these California homes that are being dumped on lenders. After you are a renter for a while, you might just scratch you head and say: "Should I have done that?"


    On Mar 05 03:19 PM Chris B wrote:

    > Society invented contracts and laws so that the question of whether
    > to pay or not could be considered a legal issue, rather than an unsolvable
    > moral issue. Your obligation under your contract is exactly what
    > the contract says and exactly what the law requires. You can walk
    > away from the collateral under the terms of the contract and state
    > law, just as the person who sold you the house for $600k is able
    > to walk away with that cash and you have no recourse to him/her now
    > that the house is worth less. Those are the rules.
    >
    > Does this have a negative impact on society or innocent bystanders?
    > Yes and no. Neighbors' houses decline in value, which equals the
    > better deal that new buyers can get, which nets to zero cost/benefit.
    > Property tax collections go down, the effect of which is good or
    > bad depending on your ideology. Your lender loses hundreds of thousands
    > of dollars processing the foreclosure but the lender's money has
    > flowed to the person who sold you the house - another net effect
    > of zero. Expenses are incurred in the foreclosure process, moving,
    > selling, storage, redecorating, etc. but one man's cost is another's
    > revenue - another net effect of zero.
    >
    > If you worry about these kinds of moral dilemmas, you might as well
    > agonize about which car company you want to keep in business when
    > you buy a car.
    Mar 06 06:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The most rational outcome for you is to walk. Do so quickly and surely.

    In fact, it is the only solution. Rents are dropping as housing supply rises. You would be in a market competing with everyone in the same boat as yourself if you try and rent..

    The entire point of foreclosure in contract law is to take the moral arguments out of the process. The moral hazard was exceeded when greedy lenders lent to stupid people (encouraged by the government) and folk like you are the collateral damage. Being "house poor" is not your fault. Cut your losses and get away from that mortgage.

    You are foolish to keep paying into negative equity. It is anti-capitalistic. Save your financial future.

    Also, it is a myth that foreclosure hurts credit. Foreclosures are secured loans. Credit agencies are far more concerned about stressed out owners with negative equity ramping up non-secured credit and then declaring bankruptcy.

    Finally, owning is over-rated. You are far, far better renting and banking your savings. You'll get a better housing deal with almost no risk.


    On Mar 06 01:18 PM House Poor wrote:

    > We put 20% down on our condo in CA as well. ($78K in our case)
    > We have a 30 yr fixed rate. We've been making our payments for 4
    > yrs. Now moving out of state for a better job. What do you do?
    > You can't sell it without still owing money, you can't refinance
    > to lower the payment. We don't want to take on the expense of trying
    > to rent an out of state property when current rents don't even cover
    > the monthly nut. We've lost considerably in our 401K, etc. I don't
    > know what we're going to do. You can't even make an informed decision
    > because the bottom hasn't hit yet. Our only sensible choice for
    > financial survival may be to walk. If anyone has constructive suggestions,
    > please share them.
    Mar 06 06:38 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Crocodilian--When you say that Nevada is

    (a bit more complicated there,
    > but basically non-recourse)

    can you point me to specifics? I've been under the impression that it's a recourse state, and the foreclosed-upon homeowner can get taken to court for the balance when a foreclosure sale falls short of the mortgage total.....

    thanks!
    Mar 06 06:41 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    On Mar 06 06:41 PM vinnyv wrote:

    Crocodilian--When you say that Nevada is

    (a bit more complicated there,
    > but basically non-recourse)

    can you point me to specifics? I've been under the impression that it's a recourse state, and the foreclosed-upon homeowner can get taken to court for the balance when a foreclosure sale falls short of the mortgage total.....

    thanks!
    ----------------------...
    @VinnyV
    My understanding -- and you should check with a Nevada attorney on this, is that Nevada is a "one action" state. This means that your lender can only file against you only once; in practice this _sometimes_ has the effect of limiting the size of a deficiency judgment . . . this is a technical issue and requires experienced local counsel, which I am not.

    This complexity does speak to the larger point I was making: that the United States has "balkanized" the finance of the most important asset class, for no good reason. There really is no reason that Arizona should have one set of rules, Minnesota another, and New York another.

    Sure, you can point to a "laboratory of democracy/economics" thing, but as we have national lenders, and national insurance, it really doesn't make a lot of sense for different states to have radically different rules on something that's so important. Its hard to see any advantage, and easy to see the costs.
    Mar 07 12:10 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "If everyone put 50% down like Felix we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place. """"""

    THAT WAS THE SMALL LESSON THE GOV. LEARNED ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

    MAYBE NOW HOUSE'S WILL REQUIRE 50% DOWN,
    JUST LIKE STOCKS.
    Mar 07 01:33 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The spirit in much of this conversation is there is no morality in contracts, just contracts. I say that ignores what contracts are in the first place -- an attempt to mechanize morality and make the morals in play clear and enforceable with consequences.

    Moral people do not need contracts, contracts are worthless with immoral people, and the vast majority of us in between those two poles need contracts. Note, my point about how contracts are ineffective with immoral people.

    The notion to walk from the contract and send the bank a "jingle-letter" is anticipated and may be provisioned in the contract, but it is hardly moral. On the other hand, if we were talking about property that was 100% investment property from the get-go I would be a lot more understanding. That is generally why the principal home mortgages are more favorable to the homeowner than loans for investment properties.
    Mar 07 10:06 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It was a deal. The buyer knew what he was getting and so did the lender--including the non-recourse loan.

    Like Felix, the blogger, I think the best approach for Felix, mortgager, is a strategic one: Force a re-negotiation at the right time or walk.
    Mar 07 11:34 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There is morality in contracts. It is called risk. If both parties agree to a no equity mortgage structure, then the bank is risking it all without collateral. Collateral is a moral obligation to reserve against risk. No down payment, no equity loans are immoral, at the bank's instigation. They write the terms. They are the first party.

    You can make contracts with immoral people. You just need collateral to take into account their risk premium.

    There is an entire world of immoral criminals who take contracts very seriously. The Mafia, drug gangs, etc. Studies have shown they are more likely than average citizens to honour their contracts, likely because the consequences are more dramatic and thoroughly communicated at the contract's inception.

    What is immoral is to hold people accountable for non-contractual obligations based on some greater "read in" context, such as the "think of your neighbours" comments in the CNBC blurb in the article. If it is in a person's best interests to walk from a mortgage, and that is legally permissible, then there is no morality at play here. Perhaps they need to leave suddenly due to cancer, or to take care of a loved one, or they invested with Bernie Madoff. The contact does not judge nor discriminate; it executes. The reasons are irrelevant in the vast majority of cases. Thousands of years of jurisprudence have made this clear.

    On Mar 07 10:06 AM Marcus Aurelius wrote:

    > The spirit in much of this conversation is there is no morality in
    > contracts, just contracts. I say that ignores what contracts are
    > in the first place -- an attempt to mechanize morality and make the
    > morals in play clear and enforceable with consequences.
    >
    > Moral people do not need contracts, contracts are worthless with
    > immoral people, and the vast majority of us in between those two
    > poles need contracts. Note, my point about how contracts are ineffective
    > with immoral people.
    >
    > The notion to walk from the contract and send the bank a "jingle-letter"
    > is anticipated and may be provisioned in the contract, but it is
    > hardly moral. On the other hand, if we were talking about property
    > that was 100% investment property from the get-go I would be a lot
    > more understanding. That is generally why the principal home mortgages
    > are more favorable to the homeowner than loans for investment properties.
    Mar 11 09:49 AM | Link | Reply