Bearishness at 20 Year High: Big Bounce in the Waiting? 41 comments
March 05, 2009
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This week's American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey reported the level of individual investor bearishness hit 70.27%. This is the highest bearishness level report by AAII since it began tracking investor sentiment in 1987 when the bearish sentiment reached 67% in 1990. Bullish sentiment fell to 18.92% resulting in a bull/bear spread of -51%.
- The widest bull/bear spread occurred in 1990 when it reached -54%.
- This week's bullishness level was reported at 18.92%.
- The prior low on bullishness was reported in 1990 at 12%.
(click to enlarge)
If we could get any sort of positive news flow, the market would likely make a significant move to the upside.
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Post receipts, Post returns, Call You.
Why would I? Who are you that I would ever need to prove anything to you, or anyone else on this board. Get over yourself, and don't take your moniker so seriously. Don't bother posting a reply. I will not respond.
Its mindless drivel about nothing more than a corrupt gambling pit.
Why people who speak about economics think they are smart is beyond me. Seems they all should be thrown in the trash heap at this point.
On Mar 05 09:25 PM User 370723 wrote:
> The stock market hates every word that's coming out of Obama's mouth.
>
> His presidency seems to be going downhill fast...
On Mar 05 07:15 PM Nick Waddell wrote:
> I am leery of people who say with complete confidence that this bear
> is only this far through or that we have so much more pain to go.
> I don't know and neither do they.
>
> The reason we get rallies or busts is because of unexpected positive
> or negative news. Otherwise librarians would run the investment banks.
>
> The fact that people are completely bearish and discount the possibility
> of anything positive happening might even be a contrarian indicator.
>
>
> So if you are tired of know-it-alls jumping all over any positive
> comment here, don't buy it. Despite the "incredulous scoffing guru"
> persona that about 10% of the participants here seem to cultivate,
> they don't have a playbook you haven't seen.
Banks are going to be in meltdown through 2012 when the wave of ARM resets will peak.
There will be few sustained upside rallies. The reality of where we are is going to be too much for the market to bear.
Figure a recovery sometime around 2013. From that point the Dow will recover from 1500 hitting 10,000 again by 2017.
Haha ... trust me my friend ... I am ALL IN. All you guys are a bunch of suckers ...
Just think about it ... the herd is ALWAYS a bunch of suckers ... and its REALLY easy to spot the herd mentality here. As yourself ... am I spouting nothing but utter fear? Gee ... that seems to be exactly what the rest of the herd is doing. Am I really just a part of the herd? Well if it looks like it, tastes like it and smells like it ...
That is why the bearish indicator is good ... it tells you what the herd is thinking. So you bet against it. You best against it because eventually the herd will turn ... and then you can sell them your stocks when they come stampeding for them ...
And oh they (you) will .... haha ...
You're the joke.
On Mar 05 08:35 PM SmartAss_Asian wrote:
> Well well well, here are the americans once again, rolling their
> R's.With all due contempt, you guys have been stripped naked and
> defecated upon.But you still haven't lost your smarts , have ya?
>
> The world doesn't run according to your theories ;-) poppadums!!!!
>
> There's no one, repeat no-one here who even has an inkling of what's
> going to happen in the short short term.Of course, in the long short
> term, you're well and trully and royally buggerred.In the long long
> term? , well, who gives a shit.
> This blog is a joke.
On Mar 05 09:53 PM mr freddo wrote:
> The markets will continue downward for the rest of 2009. Gold and
> Silver will do well as will gold mines.
>
> Banks are going to be in meltdown through 2012 when the wave of ARM
> resets will peak.
>
> There will be few sustained upside rallies. The reality of where
> we are is going to be too much for the market to bear.
>
> Figure a recovery sometime around 2013. From that point the Dow will
> recover from 1500 hitting 10,000 again by 2017.
Haha ... yeah ... we survived and prospered for the last 100 thousand years, have went through plagues, wars and natural disasters ... and NOW because a bunch of people in Vegas and California bought houses they couldn't afford the entire world and civilization as we know it is coming to an end.
I HOPE the market does go to 0 ... I'll buy it and when it goes back to 1 ... I'll have increased my wealth infinitely!
Hey .. if you have a house and want to give it to me for 0 ... I'll take it.
Steelers baby!
Well with Citi at a buck ... the pickin's is gettin' slim grandpa ...
On Mar 05 08:52 PM APM wrote:
> If 70.27% bearish sentiment indicates a rebound soon, and the previous
> record was 67%, what happened in the last couple of months when it
> was 68%, 69%, or 70%?
>
> What makes 70.27 a magic number?
>> it's an odds thing man....it simply means we are closer to an upside bounce or explosion than we were at 67 or 68 etc.
Also ... if you want to buy a house that you thought had long term value would you want to do it when most people DIDN'T want the house or when most people DID? I high bearish indicator means no one wants to buy the house you want.
Me? I prefer to buy things that have long term value when I have the least competition for them. This may be a strange concept for you ... but chances are you will get them MUCH cheaper that way.
And that is why my friends ... all you super-bears out there ... you are now about to get a classical education is suckers buying at the top ... and selling (NOT BUYING) at the bottom.
It happens over and over. And it happens over and over because the herd is stupid. They get scared because everyone around them is scared. Like now.
Each time everyone in the herd gets scared ... everyone in the herd thinks ... this time is IT! This time the world is going to end. You think it simply because EVERYONE else is thinking it ... and for no other reason.
This world is not built on some impersonal 'fundamental' or 'technical' indicator out there. It is composed of PEOPLE! And when PEOPLE get scared everything goes downhill ... and that is the ONLY reason things go downhill.
So when it is downhill you buy things from the herd that they are panicked to sell. Eventually the herd gets tired of running ... they get worn out ... they see that the world has not ended. Then they see the other cows in the herd eating some good grass 'over there' ... and they want it for themselves (since why should I be left out of the good grass ... I want my share) ... and they ALL come running back.
OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER. Sweet ....
I guess I should add the second part too.
Then the herd is all running in the same direction, each buying and selling a patch of grass hoping the next cow will pay more. And they do this over and over. Like with houses or internet stocks or whatever. And at this time all the cows are just beaming about what geniuses they are. This time it is different ... this time the good times will last forever.
Eventually some of them pay so much for the grass that no cow wants to buy it from them ...
... and down we go again until all the cows are saying that the world is about to end. And this time its different. This time the world REALLY is going to end.
And it doesn't ... and up we go again! Sweet.
That is a pretty good Karl Marx impression. What is the need for human beings in all this when events are simply going to unfold in the obvious logical sequence you have laid out? I can't even tell what my wife is going to do from one second to another and you seem to have laid out the unalterable sequence of events on the path to global destruction.
What people seem to have a tendency to do over and over is extend into the future a straight line trajectory based on the current set of events. You can pluck out of the billions of things happening in this world (99.99999999999% of which you know nothing about) what ever set of 10-20 things your brain can juggle and make up what ever result suits your mood. And you can believe it as firmly as the nose on your face.
But you are going to be wrong. The world doesn't work in the straight line you imagine .. and that is the reason the herd is the herd. 99.9% of people all think in the same linear fashion and can't accept the fact that they can't know tomorrow. We evolved to handle the basic tasks of survival and extending out into the future a complex set of world events is not something we are that good at ... although we can't seem to ever understand that.
So you pick out of the world what you want to see ... create an opinion based on it ... and maybe that opinion will save you from the tiger in the dark. At least it feels better to believe that.
On Mar 05 06:28 PM market ace wrote:
> The bear has a long way to go. Many of the gov't welfare projects
> - i.e. GM, Citi and AIG will soon be history and really start a turn
> to the downside. Banks are still using bailout money to trade diravatives
> instead of supporting the economy making loans and supporting troubled
> businesses, so all of the gov't programs inept. .
>
> Hank tough with cash and nibble at the bargains, but protect yourself
> with inverse ETF's. This may be the strategy we will have to live
> with for many years.
While everyone's doing their share of predictions , here's mine too:
1. You will lose your job.
2. You will lose your house.
3. You will lose your retirement savings
4. Your government and your kids will do you in completely.
Oops.....Some of these seem to have come true already.