Historical Patterns Predict This Crisis Will Last Through 2025

The cycle of generations in the US shows us the patterns of history. And those patterns predict that the crisis we are in will not be over until around 2025.

One of the most significant aspects of generational research for me is its predictive ability. The cycle of generations described by Neil Howe and William Strauss in their books (starting with “Generations“) has an amazing predictive ability. Their book “The Fourth Turning“, written in 1997, predicts many of the events we have seen in the last few years with amazing accuracy. But this is not astrology or soothsaying. The predictions are based on strong social science that shows how the character of generations creates specific changes in society. Information about "turnings" can also be found on the Lifecourse Website.

Howe and Strauss point out that there are four cycles in history, that they call “turnings”, which are very similar to the four seasons of the year. It begins with the “High”, similar to spring, a period in which life is growing, the days are getting longer and optimism abounds. The last High in the US was between 1946 and 1964. The next turning is the “Awakening” which is like the summer, a period where life flourishes in many forms, perhaps to the point that things are a bit out of control. Our last Awakening was the Consciousness Revolution from 1995-1985, when everything our society was based on during the High was questioned. The third turning is the “Unraveling”, similar to the fall, when life dies back, the days shorten and things feel chaotic and uncontrolled. The last Unraveling in the US were the Culture Wars from 1986-2005, when society fell apart as it answered the questions from the Consciousness Revolution. The fourth turning is the “Crisis” which is most like winter. During the Crisis, the seeds that have been planted in the fall must survive through the short, cold days and life is bleak and unforgiving. We are in the Crisis now, and it will likely last until 2025. Those that survive the Crisis will enjoy warmth and promise of the coming spring/High.

click to enlarge image

The chart above shows the turnings since 1900 (click on the image to enlarge). The red line represents the “High” and “Low” of the cycle. At the top of the curve, there is maximum unity in society as well as a simple worldview. At the bottom there is maximum discord and a complex worldview.

Just like the cycles of the seasons, the turning are of a specific length. Most vary from 20-25 years in duration. Just like the seasons in nature, it is difficult to change the timing of the turnings because they are guided by a natural force. The natural force in play is the length of an average human lifetime, 85 - 100 years (also known as a saeculum). This period is significant because it is the amount of time required for us to forget the lessons of previous generational cycles. The cycle makes a full revolution from the High through the Crisis (and then repeats).

So while it is possible that financial crisis we are in will end soon, perhaps in the next few years, the larger crisis will last for at least 10-15 years (until 2025 or perhaps as early as 2020). Think back to our most recent historical example, the Crisis turning from 1929-1945. It began with the Great Depression. By the time the Depression was “over” (in the late 1930s) Europe was already marching toward WWII. Think of what the outlook must have seemed like in the late 1930s. If you had managed to survive the Depression you were wary and protective. Although the economy was improving, there were much bigger storm clouds gathering on the horizon. And by 1939 it was clear that the Great Depression was nothing in comparison to what was coming in the War. The world looked very bleak indeed (just like the middle of winter), and few would have predicted the glory that was in store in 1945. We are in a similar period now, and we are building towards that climax which is still 10-15 years away.

The climax will be the final reconciliation of the Boomer (born 1943-1960) generation who play the role of prophets in our current cycle. The ideological battle for how society should look will be debated by the Boomers and fought by the Millennials (born 1982-200?). This was true in the last cycle when the Missionary generation led (Stalin and FDR) and the GI Generation fought (all the war heroes). Does this climax need to be a war? No, but the climax has always been a major war historically (WWII, Civil War, American Revolution, Glorious Revolution, etc..)

I see this coming war taking one of two shapes. It will either be a war against Global Warming/Peak Oil/Water Shortage and other threats to our living environment, or it will be a battle against another nation or group of nations (Arab or Chinese being most likely). I would prefer the former, but as a Generation X’er I have little influence. Fortunately, there is one person in my generation does have some influence on this direction, and his name is Barack Obama (no guarantee that he will have the answer either).

The good news is that society will pull together during this crisis and we will forge a new direction for our entire country (and perhaps world) before it is over. That is how the next High will arise, but it will be a long time before it arrives. Although our situation may seem dire, it will be useful to be aware of the fundamental changes happening in our society as we face this immense struggle. And, as I have said many times, it will require a huge effort from all the living generations who must work together despite their different views.

If you want a primer on the research of William Strauss and Neil Howe, see my “start here” section.

Comments

[Steven Hansen:]

a great post by James Quinn was made on this subject:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Mar 08 04:06 AM

[untiringeagle:]

Cycles are a common subconcious archetype. Yeats believed in overlapping and opposing vortices of time called gyres (see is poem The Second Coming) with intervals of 2000 years. Mark Twain said that history may not repeat...but it sure does rhyme. The next war will be over competition for dwindling resources and most likely with China. Alea iacta est.

Mar 08 04:40 AM

[Rob Viglione:]

I can't help but think of the Bonner and Wiggin book "Empire of Debt".

The American empire appears to be on the precipice...

Mar 08 04:59 AM

[Moon Kil Woong:]

I tend to lay my money with business cycles. The fact this downturn coincides with this downturn may be coincidence. The reason for this is simple.

If you bet your money based on this cycle analysis you would notice during the awakening there was a 1970s stagflation crisis, during the 60's you had Vietnam and Nixon. I really doubt the author believes that is when institutions were the strongest?

During the unraveling you has the 1987 crash followed by years and years of great stock gains leading only to an Internet Bubble burst. This was probably more a strong institution time thanthe 60s. Especially since government waved a magic wand and let banks do whatever they wanted accounting wise to avoid posting losses (off balance sheet acounting and letting them offload risk onto brokerage type business models).

So you could say that in each cycle has a financial meltdown of sorts. Drawing sign wave between here and the great depression and calling it an economic theory is bunkus to me.

Looking at the large economic cycles you may wish to look at population growth and aging. There is a strong and economically viable link between baby boom and upcycles and a population drop coupled with an aging population that lives longer and longer. Even without a financial meltdown those problems would have found a place to roost around this time.

We don't need astrology and pseudo-science consciousness cycles to justify such things. Forgive me, I come from the age of cynacism.

Mar 08 05:20 AM

[Glen L.:]

This is psychobabble, worthy only of someone whose mind has been corrupted and compromised by a government school education. The idea that whole generations behave according to mystical cycles is just ludicrous. How can the author talk about forgetting the lessons learned by prior generations while simultaneously remembering them? The fact is that there are no clearly delineated "generations" in the first place, just artificial spikes in the birth rate caused by the interruptions of major wars, which do NOT occur according to generational cycles; we had no major wars in America for "four score and seven years".

If this "theory" were true, it would apply to all human societies. Try to match it up with the history of other nations and see how quickly it breaks down.

Mar 08 09:39 AM

[Schawacker:]

Interesting, but probably wrong. The underlying premise of the article, that, "the natural force in play is the length of an average human lifetime, 85 - 100 years factually, and grossly incorrect. The current worldwide average is about 66 (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...). The 2009 average expected lifespan is 78.11 (www.cia.gov/library/pu...).

I would also point out that 100 years does not provide enough evidence "cycles" to make reasonable claims. In other words, the sample size of cycles, which appears by the graph to be about 1 and a half, not not constitute anything that even looks like a trend.

Alas, like so many others, the author is speculating. Now, get ahold of 1,000 years of post-industrial economic activity and a couple of hundred putative cycles, then you might have the ability start making well-founded claims.

Mar 08 10:40 AM

[Brad Castro:]

"The last Unraveling in the US were the Culture Wars from 1986-2005, when society fell apart as it answered the questions from the Consciousness Revolution."

LOL - boy, that was a pretty bloody and horrific era wasn't it? It was almost as bad as the Civil War, what with all those ballot initiatives and broadcasts of "Crossfire."

Look, I've long considered the work of Howe and Strauss to be intriguing. But it's a bit reckless to approach their work ideologically and as predictive ("We are in the Crisis now, and it will likely last until 2025.")

It's like what George Lucas has done with the "Monomyth" theory of the comparative mythologist/scholar Joseph Campbell, who claimed (not without justification) that all stories in all societies and in all forms are components of a much larger, universal story.

There may be some academic validity in such analysis, but when artists and storytellers themselves adopt that kind of philosophy, their work suffers. George Lucas is a special effects genius, but, because he believes that "there's nothing new under the sun" when it comes to actual stories, his work is what it is: contrived, predictable, repetitive, and weak.

OK - the above isn't a tangent, but the best example I could come up with why trying to use a highly interpretive view of history as a means of forecasting social, cultural, and economic conditions two decades out is, at best, silly.

Mar 08 12:03 PM

[old.frt:]

PA Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics, provided a better read because he looked backward at cycles.

Sohigian should remember Yogi Berra's comment about predictions: "... very difficult, especially about the future."

Mar 08 01:45 PM

[sourceview:]

This essay is long on a theory most respectable social scientists would eschew. It is born out of the science fantasy movement. This 10th grade level essay is long on IDEOLOGICAL STATEMENTS and short on facts. Bergmann defines an ideological statement as a statement of belief stated as it is factual, when it is not.

For instance: "The natural force in play is the length of an average human lifetime, 85 - 100 years (also known as a saeculum)." Please tell me when the mean life span was this high? Maybe next century. This age cohort is now the 3rd standard deviation of the population curve and represents only about 1% of the world population!

When this author starts making factual statements derived from factual data he will have more impact.

Kants model: thesis-antithesis-synt... is more coherent and resonant with the history of mankind, but it failed to account for the process of unionization, and so Marx's adaptation of Kant and his prediction that Capitalism will fail and move into communism failed.

Why does Alpha allow such drivel?

Mar 08 03:21 PM

[acrumb:]

What about the K-cycle?
www.thelongwaveanalyst...
There is that Chinese saying about wealth lasting only 3 generations. Henry Dent also has another theory he has promoted.

But, these cycles assume certain things are not going to change. Global Warming won't end by 2025.
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sc...
Global warming is 'irreversible'
Meanwhile in US, the minorities will be the new majority by 2040 (of whom 50% cannot graduate high school let alone college), by which time Social security will run out funds and US debt's interest are due to subsume all other costs.
Oh yes, global warming will most likely lead to reverse of migration to sunbelt....

Mar 08 09:30 PM

[derryl:]

acrumb wrote, "But, these cycles assume certain things are not going to change. Global Warming won't end by 2025.
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sc...
Global warming is 'irreversible' "

So suppose we were living 70000 years ago at the end of the 10000 year long 'global warming' of the Sangamon interglacial. I suppose the cave men were telling each other 'global warming is irreversible, with all these damn fires we're starting to encourage berry growth and to make hunting easier'. Then came 60000 years of Wisconsin glaciation with ice sheets 2 miles thick extending for thousands of miles.

Global warming is irreversible.
Real estate always goes up because they're not making land anymore.
Over the long term equities provide a 10% return.
Bullshit is always contradicted by reality.

Mar 08 11:18 PM

[svkoho:]

"strong social science?"s an oxymoron. Economics is another one of those "strong" social sciences!

Mar 09 10:12 AM

[Fred Voetsch:]

On Mar 08 05:20 AM Moon Kil Woon wrote:

> I tend to lay my money with business cycles. The fact this downturn
> coincides with this downturn may be coincidence. The reason for this
> is simple.
>...
> We don't need astrology and pseudo-science consciousness cycles to
> justify such things.


Ignorance is worse. That fact that you can't see the obvious cycles and then are unwilling to do a bit of research shows you are much worse than a cynic. BTW, if you believe that business cycles exist why wouldn't you give generational cycles a chance? The reason they are not as well know is that great patience is required to take advantage of them and only people with an ability to see with a wide perspective need apply.

I strongly suggest that anyone with an open mind and a love of history and hard data search Google for "4th turning" and go to www.generationaldynami...

These generational patterns will not tell you what the stock market is going to do, they tell you what the patterns are and from that, and the world around you, you can get a good idea of where we are headed.

By knowing a "4th turning" crisis period is coming you can become more aware of the effects of the build up towards it. The "unraveling" of the last turning looks like wonderful stuff to most but to someone educated in these generational patterns it is truly the desctruction of our culture so that we may rebuild it once again.

Given the debasement of our culture with pornography almost everywhere and the greed that IS everywhere it is not hard to see that the crisis at hand is quite severe and will shock us to our very core, even as we keep telling ourselves, "it can't get any worse."

Mar 09 04:43 PM

[Ben Hall:]

The problem with Stauss and Howe's generational cycle theory is that it lacks empirical data to support their conclusion.

A better reference is the science of socionomics which is the study of social mood and its results in social actions. It studies how waves of endogenously regulated social mood in turn regulate changes in the economy, political preferences, financial markets, pop culture, etc. You can watch a full length documentary entitled History's Hidden Engine here: socionomics.net/histor...

Mar 09 05:02 PM

[Dave Sohigian:]

I made a mistake in the article. The sentence that reads:


"The natural force in play is the length of an average human lifetime, 85 - 100 years (also known as a saeculum)."

Strauss and Howe state that a saeculum is the length of a LONG human lifetime, not an average lifetime. Thank you @sourceview for pointing out the error. The reason why this length is important is because the lessons of the previous generational archetype are bound to be forgotten once most of it's members are gone.

@Schawacker - Strauss and Howe's research goes back over 500 years, but I only showed the last 100 years in my chart.

@freddyv - I agree. It is worth checking out Fourth Turning.

@svkoho - Yeah, I can see some truth to that :-)

@The hand - Yes, James' post is great and has a lot more detail.

Mar 10 05:56 PM