Bespoke Reader Poll: Dow 5,000 It Is

On Friday we asked readers what they thought the low of the Dow would be between now and the end of 2009. Back in November when the index was around 7,500, the number that got the most responses was 6,000. This time around, after a weekend of voting, 5,000 has gotten the most number of responses. The consensus just keeps getting lower and lower.

Comments

[Steven Hansen]

this reminds me of slow news days where the journalists start interviewing each other asking them what they think.

i would like the same poll taken from members of congress. that would be interesting.

2009 Mar 10 04:29 AM

[Zircon - 212]

there were no votes for higher year end levels? contrarians pee in their pants over data like this

2009 Mar 10 11:03 AM

[AndrewBaker]

If you look at a chart of the dow going back to the start, then Dow less than 5000 is on the cards. Good thing I like shorts.

2009 Mar 10 04:25 PM

[GoMyLittleSheep]

Let's see, the rule is always give a number 1,500 points lower than the current level.

Very smart.

2009 Mar 10 06:21 PM

[jstratt]

A couple days ago I was finding it hard to invest. It took planning as if 5000 would happen and how I would feel.

Then a long term view of the assets I wanted helped me see that this was and still is a lifetime opportunity.

If you want to retire in the next 10 years and want some income from say T or VZ look past the noise.

I concluded that I also wanted income from banking and purchased several banks including JPM, USB and BK from the safest banks list. I threw in a flyer and bought BAC as well.

I also want some future income from the manufacturers such as MMM, UTR, EMR and HON. Finally I bought some GE as I just felt the risk/reward ratio was right.

I acknowledge the risk but think GE will survive and 5 years from now it will trade at $30 a share.

I may be wrong on some of these but I write this to offer the idea that you might also want to think ahead and look past this crisis.

A note of caution however. This is a dangerous market. If you cant hold on through a drop to 5000 in the meantime stay away.

2009 Mar 10 08:35 PM

[perceptions_now]

Caution should be exercised, this downturn is not the usual confidence related recession.

This is a structural, long term downturn.

Why is it structural, because the basic sources of the current economic symptoms, are"
1) Population - Total & Aging (Baby Boomer Bust)
2) Peak Oil
3) Climate Change

These are the basic drivers of Supply & Demand, but there will also be other Geo-Political considerations

Assuming something more serious doesn't intervene,I expect this event will take 10-20 years and there may be no change out of DOW 1500-2000, before it ends.

2009 Mar 10 11:07 PM