Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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I spent the better part of 7 hours today dealing with support people at Dell, ATI and McAfee since my PC crashed. I think “support” is misnamed and the antonym “frustration” would be more appropriate. Toward the end of these conversations, I was ready to throw the PC out the window.

Well, enough about the Fryguy’s day, eh?

Bulls think today was a great victory in that there wasn’t another reversal. Bears on the other hand didn’t see any bullish follow-through. Me? So far I just see a low volume oversold short squeeze. But, I could be mistaken and only time will tell. But, overall I’m comfortable on the sidelines despite a few small positions that are frustrating in their trends.

There may be some fun and games as traders start the rollover process from March stock futures contracts to June. But, it seems there’s always something.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in IEF, TLT, GLD, FXE and DBB.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going for forward.

Comments

[cyclingscholar:]

Thanks for the brief comment on each chart and your overall perspective on a 'low volume short covering rally" which I have noticed as well in the SPY and DIA indexes.

One comment on the gold H&S: Edwards and MaGee, the tech bible editors, make it clear that a valid H&S top has less volume on the rally to the head than on the left shoulder; this does not appear to be the case with your GLD chart. Still, I agree GLD looks toppy. A multiyear chart shows a triple top at these levels over the last 16 months.

Mar 12 10:21 AM

[vince v:]

Think about getting a MAC and taking a blue screen holiday

Mar 12 10:29 AM

[AndrewBaker:]

Thanks, David. It's looking messy but on the down side. You can't have such a drop across so many markets without people looking for a recovery somewhere at some time. I feel that that is what's happening now, but I do not know when the next down-leg will be or what will cause it, but any long positions I take will be short term (like, eg: day trades, or a few days at best). Trouble is these rallies eat into the shorts' returns, and it's tough to trade in and out having to deal with charges and uncertainty at the same time. Ummm ... no clear direction, and it makes it tough.

Mar 12 11:30 AM

[David Fry:]

Lots have recommended a MAC today but it won't work on some of my programs even with VMware, etc.

I would love one though based on all the comments I get.

Mar 12 12:04 PM

[Maxe Paul:]

This baby has some legs in it! The bulls are back....CHARGE!

I think we may test the moving average on the s&p, which is quite a hike at this stage. This is the wave 4 rally before the final 5th devastating wave down.

Mar 12 01:18 PM

[mtndew:]

Dave got a great sense of humor... is there a way to display the daily percentage changes next to the charts? I always have to remind myself the % changes displayed is monthly even though it is a daily update.

Mar 12 02:18 PM

[goalposts:]

I hope you have XP and not Vista. If you have an ATI video card, make sure you have the latest driver, but I'm sure my friends at Dell support told you that, if you could understand them. And be very suspicious of McAfee!

Mar 12 06:01 PM