Thank you for joining us this morning. It's an early start to our Wednesday activities but it's my pleasure to introduce Anadarko Petroleum and CFO, Bob Gwin.
Robert G. Gwin
Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everybody. I appreciate you getting up early after what sounded like a relatively loud and rockest night in the bar last night, thanks for being here this morning, and listening to Anadarko's story. Andrew, thanks for having us. We're glad to be here at the conference and it's a great location you guys have chosen.
So, the first slide is called 'Anadarko's Competitive Advantage'. In short, we're really proud of what we've been able to do at Anadarko and it's mostly about the people. The people obviously are united around a culture and a set of values that Jim Hackett instituted about five or six years ago, and they've really served to guide us in what we've done over the last few years.
One of the key things we've done is pull together a very attractive portfolio of assets, let me just spend a little bit of time talking about this morning and trying to show you how we think we differentiate ourselves relative to the market. That is through predictable, repeatable onshore growth in the U.S., high-margin oil projects around the world, and then a differentiated exploration program that gives us a lot of optionality in the portfolio. So what we believe is a fairly unique investment proposition amongst the larger cap E&Ps in the industry today.
I mentioned portfolio. This slide tries to lay out what is a fairly big global portfolio in one slide. Three key parts to keep in mind if you want to get in your minds kind of the framework of Anadarko. U.S. onshore, it's high-growth, it's predictable, it's repeatable, it's margins focused, we're going to dive into a couple of the key assets there in a minute. Second part are these high-margin oil megaprojects we call. These are discrete projects which will come on as I'll show you one after another over the course of the next several years, giving us tremendous margin improvement and growth over a longer period of time. And then the world-class exploration portfolio that I'm going to tell you, I mean as the CFO of a company that has roughly twice the industry success rate on deepwater exploration and appraisal over the course of the last several years, we've got a slide in here to show you the value that's truly created already. It makes me really proud because it gives us the opportunity to offer at a truncated downside, for lack of a better word, with this optionality of the upside, and that's fairly unique in a company our size.
We'll talk about Mozambique. That's a classic example of what exploration has been able to bring to the table. They've been able to add material upside to a company that is already very large, so really big scale growth projects that our exploration and global efforts are exposing us to and we'll talk about those in a little more detail in a moment.
Let's step back and look at 2012 first. 2012 was a fantastic year for Anadarko, record results on a number of metrics. I won't read the slide to you but there's a lot of numbers on here we're quite happy with. Not only did we get bigger, but we got better. We continue to drive efficiencies and reduce costs, primarily that's in our U.S. onshore business. We outperformed on resource identification in our exploration team. They were seeking around 800 million barrels of resource, delivered over 1 billion barrels of resource globally. We did a really good job on portfolio management. We were able to continue to hydrate the portfolio, monetize some transactions, the size of $1 billion plus, it was a little over $1.3 billion this past year.
Something that's not on this slide – you see what we've done from a cash standpoint and a leverage reduction standpoint, we'll talk about in a little bit, but something that's not on here is that it also had a resolution of our Algerian excess profits tax dispute that went on for a number of years, with an NPV to Anadarko (indiscernible) of about $4.4 billion. So a tremendous year in 2012 and then the challenge of course in our business or any other is how do you – what you've done for me lately, and what you're going to do in 2013 and beyond?
2013, we got sales volume target is about a 5% growth rate. Importantly though, that's about a 10% growth rate on a per net debt adjusted share basis. Those of you that follow the industry and our generalists that are in the room, understand that shareholder returns are highly correlated to debt adjusted per-share metrics in production growth, reserve growth and cash flow growth. So that's an area that we focused on for a number of years, and our performance has also been correlated to that.
So, we're quite happy with the 10% rate, we've risked that number. The footnote is relatively small, but what it in essence says is, this is risked for weather, potential downtime in the Gulf of Mexico due to hurricane season and the Rockies due to a rough winter. And it is also risked for ethane rejection. We're in a difficult ethane environment in the U.S. today, and as we discussed in our investor call recently, we've got about 3 million barrels of ethane rejection built into this model. So we think there's some puts to the upside.
Capital budget, the key thing for us is to spend within cash flow. This would generate a few hundred million dollars of free cash flow depending upon where we are relative to our range, and then we continue to replace production at a rate in excess of 150% and to do so at a very attractive cost. That cost is not only a one year metric, but over a number of years, you'll see that that's a number that we're proud to have delivered on a repeatable basis. And then you can see where we're investing the money as well, continuing to invest in these high-growth liquids assets onshore in the U.S., high-margin oil assets around the globe, and the exploration portfolio that continues to give us visibility about long-term growth and value creation.
We talked in our U.S. onshore about predictable growth. This actually is U.S. onshore and international, and we've fixed into this a timeline out through 2020. So to point out to you, these are the things we can touch and we can feel and we know where it's coming from. This is transparent, it's not stuff that we expect to be able to deliver, but rather things that we have a game-plan for delivering and a multi-year financial model to deliver it with really solid returns and a very healthy capital structure.
The green at the bottom is our higher margin liquids growth. The red – for those of you that are general, the green is liquids rich gas. That gas shows that that's at the roughly current strip, 350 gas, you'll see a 5% to 7% growth rate CAGR over a number of years. To the extent gas prices improve, we've got a lot of leverage to gas assets that we're currently not invested in. At 450 gas, you can see that we can bump our CAGR between now and 2020 by an additional 2% or so. So we like the leveraged upside to gas but we are not reliant upon gas prices to recover in order to deliver this type of growth.
So, I want to take down first on the U.S. for a few slides, then on our megaprojects around the world, and then to talk about explorations, these three legs of the stool. Onshore in the U.S., these are our core assets. We're putting the 2013 capital budget again for the generalists, the red is the gas, the green is liquids. As you can see, much of our investment is in liquids business, absent Marcellus where we're making attractive returns in the current gas price environment and that foray is running.
We're putting a lot of our capital budget into the Wattenberg and the Eagle Ford. I'll talk about those assets over the next couple of slides, but you can see that this is not just one or two assets but several assets in the U.S. where we're delivering very good growth in liquids and we will drill liquids this year by about 30,000 barrels a day, which is the size, that alone is the size of several smaller E&P companies that are out there with successful business models today. So, the business is large but yet growing despite the math that (indiscernible) growth rate in the large denominator we're able to grow the liquids business here, and obviously that enhances the economic returns in the U.S. pretty substantially.
So Wattenberg, Wattenberg is, I can say it as a finance person, I think it's the best resource play in North America if not the world, and the reason I can say that is, the economics here are absolutely phenomenal. This is about a 16 year old field that we drilled conventionally for a number of years vertical wells, had a very successful run. As you can see in the chart down there in the lower left, we've begun to grow this field very substantially, and this is aggregate production to the bottom left, we're now focusing entirely on the horizontal plays, and our team put together 1 billion to 1.5 billion barrel oilfield underlying a significant legacy field here. 1 billion to 1.5 billion barrel field doesn't come along every day and we had one that current technology, horizontal drilling and fracing allows us to extract this kind of resource potential. We get about 50% of our product slate here is oil, the other 50% NGLs and natural gas, very valuable asset.
The reason I like it from an economic standpoint is not only because it's offering 30% to 100% rates of return on a substantial investment year after year, but because we own a significant amount, a little more than 60%, of the fee mineral acreage that this production is on. So, our margins, the graph to the bottom right, shows you our margins are better than other people's margins in this basin and because we own the minerals, we pay the minerals functionally to ourselves. That both protects you in a lower price environment because it helps you to protect margins more significantly than someone who is paying royalties to a third-party, but in addition it really improves the returns on a per well basis.
As you can see, it's a huge opportunity going forward, a little more than 4,000 identified drill sites in this field. It is very well mapped out and we understand the subsurface very well, and that's from two existing formations, the Niobrara primarily as well as the Codell, and each of these wells has approaching $7 million of NPV each has before tax value. So, very valuable, very scalable, returns are phenomenal, and they get a little bit better when you look to the midstream.
Increasingly onshore in the United States, midstream is a governing constraint. It's a governing constraint to several basins. I'm sure you've talked and heard from other producers that identify this. We as an enterprise about five years ago decided to focus our activity on our midstream with a much greater amount of intensity than we had previously. We have created a public MLB, called Western Gas Partners, which has been very successful since the IPO in the middle of '08. We have IPOed its general partner here at the end of 2012, and it's been very successful as well, and it gives us the ability to put a lot of capital, hundreds of millions of dollars of capital a year into our midstream infrastructure and then rather than have the capital sit shallow or sit earning only the returns through the fee structure from ourselves and third parties, we are able to sell those assets and recycle the capital back into the upstream. So a very valuable model, it adds leverage to the model that obviously enhances our returns and helps us to manage our capital budget very efficiently.
What we've tried to do here is to manage our drilling relative to our takeaway capacity, rather than get our spending. Now we've got 11 rigs running here this year, we're going to drill about twice as many wells in this field as we did last year. You can see the charts on the right, red is the gas at the bottom, the green is the liquids at the top. We're matching our productive capacity to our takeaway capacity. That takeaway capacity is increasing. It's increasing through our investment and processing and takeaway capacity through additional lines to take NGLs to Mont Belvieu, through looping the White Cliffs Pipeline that we're a part owner in at our MLP to manage oil takeaway capacity, entering into an arrangement with (indiscernible) for an oil terminal that's coming on. We're putting the capital into this but we also think we can recycle that capital and get it back into our E&P business pretty reasonably.
Now as you might imagine, if you consider all of the economics here and the fact that we control a significant amount of our own infrastructure, you can see why we're pretty excited about this being, as I said earlier, one of the best, if not the best, resource plays. It is fabulous subsurface, it's fabulous from a geologic standpoint, but from a financial standpoint, I think it's a clear homerun and something I'm really excited to put a lot of capital into over the next several years.
Not to diminish with those comments, our Eagle Ford position, we love the Eagle Ford, we love what we've been able to accomplish there really from a standing start just a few years ago. You can see the compounded annual growth rate to the bottom left. While we've grown, we've capitalized upon our scale to improve efficiencies here, driving down costs, becoming a top quartile company from a cost standpoint, improving drilling efficiencies, extending lateral lengths while drilling more wells per rig year-over-year. It's been a fabulous amount of performance by our people. The creativity they brought to the table and their ability to leverage off their learnings in other fields to drive performance in the Eagle Ford has been fantastic. We'll be bringing an additional plant on down here and we think that the growth should be a significant driver in 2013 and beyond.
So the second area after that U.S. onshore, and you'll be able to find this information on operations reports and online, but there's more detail on the other assets obviously, but we're time constrained today. Second area is our mega projects, our global high-margin oil mega projects around the world. I love both of the charts on this stable. The one on the right essentially says, we've got the visibility of where these margins and where this cash flow is going to come from to support the one at the bottom. The one at the bottom is the one that gets me pretty darn excited.
For those of you who can't really see from the back, the orange bars are capital and the blue bars are EBITDAX. S, you can see that what we're essentially doing is plateauing our capital spend and we're using transactions like the one announced yesterday, with Heidelberg, the one announced previously with Lucius, one we are working on in Mozambique, and those are included in these forward-looking draft. We're using that to drive growth with lower capital investment. We plateau, we continue to increase the gross spend, we plateau our net spend, and the net BITDAX in the blue speaks for itself, billions upon billions of dollars of cash flow with high visibility between now and 2020.
So, when you see the earlier chart to 2020, that shows the production side of it, this is where the rubber meets the road, it's got superior returns and the ability to generate a lot of cash for us in the coming decade. So, something that's exceptionally exciting. You can see if you just – we're talking about his ability – you look over at the top right, I don't know if you can – you might be able to read it all the way out, but in essence, we'll bring El Merk on here in the coming weeks, it will ramp up over the course of the year. I'll talk about it in a second. We've got Lucius coming on in '14, Heidelberg coming on in '16, the TEN Complex in offshore Ghana that we submitted a plan of development to the government for, Mozambique everybody's fairly familiar with. So, there's enough flying in the sky, this is stuff that's sitting there, only thing going is about execution and our ops teams have done a great job executing through the last number of years.
We'll touch on a couple of those assets in a little more detail. I won't attempt to read the slides to you, there's a lot of detail here. John Colglazier and Brian Kuck are here from our Investor Relations, they have boards that they can share with you as well. But at Lucius, we've talked about, about a 300 million barrel field or bigger. As we like to do these things, we'd like to put a number out there and then expect them to increase in size over time.
Lucius Spar is under construction and in the arc today. We have talked about a design to build one strategy with regard to Heidelberg. In essence, it is, we have an 80,000 barrel a day spar under construction with Lucius that was designed by our team. I guess it would be our ninth floating facility, ninth facility in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico. That team realized that Lucius was very similar in terms of size and capacity and they were able to take about a year and a half out of the development stream by following the same design structure for Heidelberg and letting the construction crews and the shipyard move straight from the Lucius spar to the Heidelberg spar.
So rather than normal process, that would take about another year and a half, they've been able to accelerate the development timeline and that enables us to bring Heidelberg on two years right behind the Lucius, 2014, 2016. Both of these are supported by what really excites me is a couple of really neat financing structures, $556 million at Lucius we announced yesterday for $860 million (indiscernible). Each of these essentially carries our capital to first production. Obviously that enhances project returns significantly and it allows us to redeploy that capital into our shorter cycle onshore North American portfolio to accelerate returns and recycle capital more quickly. From an economic standpoint, these are real homerun transactions, they work very well for us, they work very well for our partners as well, because the high returns of these large oil projects obviously create some substantial economics that we share with the partner.
Caesar/Tonga came on production last year. We're bringing a fourth well on soon to continue to ramp up Caesar/Tonga. That was just another before Lucius and before Heidelberg, that was just another in a series of these repeatable high-margin oil projects in the Gulf of Mexico. We'll talk about the exploration program a little bit in the future.
We touched on the Shenandoah Mini-Basin here. Obviously we had a discovery of Shenandoah, we are on the appraisal well now and we'll be talking a little bit more in coming weeks about what's after Heidelberg as we continue to focus on being back and active in the Gulf of Mexico.
A quick word on Ghana and Algeria, a quick update. Ghana is doing exceptionally well. The asset jobs on the wells offshore in Ghana worked very well to increase the productive capacity and we've said all along that was a completion issue there, not a reservoir issue, and the reservoir is performing very well now. This is a 120,000 barrel a day capacity FPSO, so it's obviously ramping towards full capacity. We are drilling Phase 1A right now and so Phase 1A comes on beneath this to extend that plateau of production much further into the future.
And I mentioned the TEN Complex. You see the (indiscernible) of the additional FPSO to the west to develop the deepwater channel block, we call this the TEN Complex, named after the 20 (indiscernible) wells. We have submitted the plan of development, we'll be working with the government and our partners to move to a sanctioning there.
Algeria, I mentioned El Merk earlier. El Merk would be working on for a number of years, very excited about the project, it's very close to completion, we're in final testing, we expect to bring that on with an announcement of first well in the coming weeks. There is 30,000 barrels of capacity here, we expect it to ramp up from first oil through the end of the year to deliver about 10% growth in Algeria year-over-year, and obviously then our exit rate being at that 30,000 barrel number then. 2014 will also have a significant amount of growth from the benefit of having the production online for the entire year.
Mozambique, what can you say about Mozambique. It is a fabulous resource. It is a superb reservoir and it is enormous. 50 million tons per annum at the top is about 10 trains. What you see here is a ramp of where we are today starting with first production in 2018 and then ramping over the course of that slope, up to the full 10 trains, and then the beauty of it is, you can extend this horizon out, where once these things come on, you're able to basically look at long-term gas supply, oil linked pricing in the Pacific Basin, at least for that first several trains based on a shortage of supply relative to demand in that basin. Tremendous economics, low-cost structure, really a fabulous, fabulous world-class project supported through discoveries in this past year, Golfinho and Atum, they are entirely on our block which gives us running room for a long time to come. We'll talk about some additional exploration here as well.
There was a little bit of press yesterday around sell down of 10% of our interest. We're on 36.5% working interest, there's a 10% interest that we've talked previously, I talked about it a couple of weeks ago on our earnings call, where we are in the market with that working with Videocon who also has a 10% interest working in market. Our interests jointly have combined 20% interest, and that continues to be on track for what we would expect to be 2013, and it's a structure, if it works as a structure, like the ones at Heidelberg and Lucius, it continues to add to what I mentioned previously, helping us to plateau our capital, use other partner's capital and so on like longer spending projects and recycle our capital into shorter spending, high return and onshore U.S. projects, like the Wattenberg, the Eagle Ford, and the others that were on that earlier slide.
So the thirds area that we think adds a lot of value and differentiates us from the market is our exploration efforts. I think our exploration efforts really speak for themselves, around 5 billion barrels of discovered resources since 2004, and that's been increasing. We will drill around 25 deepwater exploration and appraisal wells this year and we've done that, roughly a number like that, for about the last three years. We believe that makes us the most active deepwater explorer in the world and what's really cool about that if you're going to put a lot of capital like that into it, is the success rate. We touched on to 67% success rate in 2012, our success rate across the last few years is pretty close to that. Industry, I'm told is around a third. So, obviously our guys have figured something out that they've done very well with.
Now, obviously year in and year out, success rates go up and down, but what we believe is that our exploration team outperforms the industry in exploration and that gives us optionality where if they have more discoveries, we don't have to take them all to development. We can sell some down, we can monetize some, et cetera, and we'll talk about that and how we've done it historically on a slide, because I think it's pretty important that investors understand the economics of our exploration program, and I think in a few slides, you'll see why I'm fairly excited about it.
The key thing here is that we are looking for high in tech exploration and appraisal wells in the Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, East Africa. You can see the well counts on here that we would expect during the year, and then we also are looking longer term. This is I would think of it as a finance guy and saying, this is raw materials, work in process and finished goods. They've got a multiyear plan here where they are acquiring land and they are performing seismic work and trying to understand the nature of some of these play opening structures. There's another part of the portfolio where they are drill ready and they're going to be drilling them during the year, and there's another part of the portfolio where we move into an appraisal process to really lineate and decide, what it is we have and what direction we'd like to go with in the future.
So Mozambique, this is I think a fairly well understood play. You see the red are the discoveries, the prospects are the blue dots here. First, we move to Orca, then we'll go to Linguado and drill the other prospects. You can see the seismic line between Orca and Linguado to the bottom right here, and this is likely more gas, this is a gas rich great neighborhood. The marginal TCF of gas here is, people have asked us what it's worth, it's worth something. It may not be worth a lot on an NPV basis because we're talking about that large growth profile and this would just add to that growth profile, but it makes this resources, big resource get bigger, and we're excited about that as we work through the remainder of the exploration period in Mozambique, and as you can tell, these structures are also entirely on our block.
We moved one of our rigs, one rig will handle that program and we moved another rig last year, late last year from Mozambique up in the Kenya. We kept this Kiboko prospect to the south and moved up to Kubwa where we will drill Kubwa, and then go back to Kiboko and finish the prospect. Kubwa, I learned this morning, mean big. So we hope that it's aptly named and Kiboko means hippo, and so we hope that's aptly named. But we've got a lot of encouragement based on what we've seen in Kenya and we've got about 6 million acres here gross, maybe 5 million net, it's about twice the size of our offshore acreage position in Mozambique. So, to the extent this works, we think it's another superb area.
I won't spend a lot of time on the Gulf of Mexico. We have an active drilling program there, five wells currently active, we've got three development projects we are also working on, so we're back at really a highway speed in the Gulf of Mexico. We are really excited about what we've seen so far in Shenandoah, the rig is still there and doing some logging work, and we hope to be talking to you about that in coming weeks.
In this slide, I want to spend a moment on exploration. Since 2004, these guys have discovered 5 billion barrels of resources. Down at the bottom right, you can see that we've taken a lot of those resources into development and this is a variation with slightly different assets on the slide you saw earlier, about our visibility through 2020, but this shows you the growth in the production from our own exploration portfolio. We found it, it's organic growth, we've developed it, and we bring it online and it added significant cash flow and significant shareholder value.
But, we are doing that while having monetized $8 billion worth of exploration successes, which is equivalent to the entire amount of money our exploration team spent from 2004 to 2012 to find all of this. So what they are able to do, when you see down there at the bottom, they have a discovery, we work through appraisal, some things we work to divest, other things we work to monetize through structures like we were able to do with Lucius and Heidelberg, and there's certain things that we take to development entirely on our own nickel. So, exploration is something where it's not a matter if you spend the dollars, you can see the value roll down the road. Over the course of the last eight years, they've been able to recapture everything they've spent and so with a net very low investment, we've been able to develop the production timeline like the one we see at the bottom right, and that's I think is pretty impressive. From a finance standpoint, I absolutely love that slide.
Once slide on finance. I don't know if the ops guys include this, but I always like to. We had a great year last year. We got $2.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet at the end of the year and that was after paying down $2.5 billion of borrowings on our revolver that we incurred solely to help fund our settlement with BP around Macondo. So our liquidity position is now about $7.5 billion plus a little bit of cash we've been able to generate earlier this year.
We're going to spend within cash flow this year and in fact generate some free cash flow, and there's a presentation I believe still on our website where I had a slide that looked a little more detailed on our investor call a few weeks ago. We've got hedges in place to protect the downside on about 50% round number of our aggregate production. We feel good about that because it helps us to fund these longer cycle mega projects where capital spending is no longer elective, and to fund our exploration program where, as I mentioned, we need to have a multiyear commitment and therefore capital spending is not elective.
We've got some monetizations planned and you can see the math here. We went from 41% to 34% leverage last year, we are bringing $700 million of cash this year related to our TPE settlement in Algeria, when we combine that with some monetization and cash flow from operations, and we expect to get our debt to capital down to 30% this year, improved credit quality, and then if we have other monetizations during the year, we can enhance the portfolio and the economics, we could do even better than that.
So, the final slide. I'm really proud of what our ops teams do. I can't imagine a better finance job in this business because these guys for the last several years running since we completed the integrations of Kerr-McGee, Anadarko and Western Gas resources, these guys through last five years are able to deliver better and better results each year while driving down costs and improving the quality of the balance sheet and improving and building shareholder value. It is we think a fairly simple model, we think it's one that's unique within the industry, and we don't have much time left but would be happy to answer any questions anybody has in the remaining one minute or so.
Robert G. Gwin
The Tronox update? I'll tell you there's really not one. The case and everything besides rest of the judge at the end of January got his last briefing and we don't know any more than anybody else does about when the judge might rule. We've estimated just based on historical stuff that we might see a three to six months kind of a window, and that when we are now about a month and a half past that into that. So, we hope that it's soon. We remain every bit as confident of our position as we were previously, didn't change our accrual this last quarter, we think it's appropriate, we think it's right, and we're looking forward to hearing from the judge.
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