Solar, Wind and Biofuels' Impressive Growth Surge in '08

Despite growing economic uncertainty over the last year, three major clean-energy sectors — solar photovoltaics [PV], wind power, and biofuels — kept up a blistering growth rate, increasing 53 percent from $75.8 billion in 2007 to $115.9 billion in revenues in 2008, according to the Clean Energy Trends 2009 report released today by Clean Edge, Inc. By 2018, Clean Edge forecasts that these three sectors will have revenues of $325.1 billion.

During the conference call discussion of the report, Joel Makower, one of the report’s authors, acknowledged that a 2009 shakeout will happen. He observed, “2009 will not be a happy year for start-ups.” A number of renewable energy and biofuel plants and projects have been delayed or canceled due to lack of project financing. OptiSolar's sale to First Solar for $400 million shows that major players are eager to acquire technology leaders faced with this credit crisis.

In spite of short-term challenges, Clean Edge forecasts strong growth over the mid- to long-term. Their past reports have forecasted growth and been correct.

Global production and wholesale pricing of biofuels reached $34.8 billion in 2008 and are projected to a total of $105.4 billion by 2018. Last year, the global biofuels market consisted of more than 19 billion gallons of ethanol and biodiesel production worldwide. In Brazil, ethanol from sugarcane surpassed petroleum use for the first time.

Wind power became the first clean-energy sector to surpass the $50 billion mark. Its $51.4 billion in worldwide revenue in 2008 is expected to grow to $139.1 billion in 2018. Last year’s global wind power installations reached a record 27,000 MW, including more than 8,000 MW in the U.S., pushing the U.S. ahead of Germany as the world’s leading generator of wind energy.

Solar PV (including modules, system components, and installation) totaled $29.6 billion last year and will reach $80.6 billion globally by 2018. Annual solar PV installations reached more than 4 GW worldwide in 2008, a fourfold increase from four years earlier, when the solar PV market reached the gigawatt milestone for the first time.

For the first time, the report examines the “green jobs dividend.” Solar PV and wind power provided more than 600,000 direct and indirect jobs globally in 2008 and are expected to generate 2.7 million jobs by 2018.

Clean Energy Trends 2009 also outlines five trends poised to make an impact on the markets in the coming year. It describes:

• What happens when the smart grid goes online
• How energy storage will become a key issue for utilities
• Where new clean-energy markets are emerging around the world
• Why grid transmission capacity will be making headlines in 2009
• The unseen growth in “micropower” grids

Smart grids often include smart charging of electric vehicles. Some smart grid trails, such as Boulder, Colorado, include vehicle-to-grid [V2G] pilot projects. During the conference call, report co-author Clint Wilder answered a question by stating that active utility investment in smart charging was not predicted until there are many more electric vehicles on the road – there are about 40,000 EVs in use in the United States. Joel Makower observed that innovators such as Coulomb Technologies and Better Place are active in the build-out of a charging infrastructure. Gridpoint’s acquisition of V2Green was also identified as a boost for smart grid and smart charging. Gridpoint has raised over $220 million to date.

“The clean-energy sector, like the broader economy, faces many challenges,” said Clean Edge co-founder and managing director Ron Pernick. “But while 2009 will be a difficult year, we believe that clean energy will play a central role in any global economic recovery.”

Free download is available for the Clean Energy Trends report (20+ pages).

Disclosure: None

Comments

[SubsidyEye:]

"Last year, the global biofuels market consisted of more than 19 billion gallons of ethanol and biodiesel production worldwide. In Brazil, ethanol from sugarcane surpassed petroleum use for the first time."

That was then, this is now:

royaldutchshellplc.com.../

"Brazil, the world’s leading producer of sugar and sugarcane-based ethanol, has seen billions of dollars poured into the industry during the past several years. As many as 200 sugar and ethanol mills have been created and were thriving during the periods of high gasoline prices. But now many mills are strapped for cash from the global credit crunch and face a shortage of funds to repay loans and for the working capital needed to survive."

Mar 11 08:58 AM

[A Barrel Full:]

Investors beware.

There will be very big winners in the clean energy field, but a rising tide will not raise all boats.

Take a careful note of the technological edge of each company. If someone makes a breakthrough in unit cost of PV cells for example, today's leaders could be dead in the water.

Also note to what extent each depends on government largesse, as policies can change.

Many of the best looking prospects are still not public.

In ten years time, noone will believe that we actually wasted money on PV and Corn Ethanol, as their replacements will be so much better.

Mar 11 09:05 AM

[billp37:]

Electricity supply problems soon?

"[A]ccording to a recent USGS study (Assessment of Coal Geology, Resources and Reserves in the Gillette Coalfield, Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USGS open-file report 2008-1202),

pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/.../

the coal reserve estimate for the Gillette coal field is 10.1 billion short tons, which is a mere 5% of the original 200 billion ton resource total. In other words, the USGS has just revised the Gillette resource base down by 95%.

www.energybulletin.net..."

Mar 11 09:31 AM

[Ferdinand E...:]

You might be correct when you say that clean energy will play a central role in a global economic recovery, however in the energy picture that I would like to see turned into reality, this is NOT the role that it should play. It should play a subsidiary though possibly important role, and the new president should get the new nuclear show on the road.

Mar 11 10:26 AM

[zircon70:]

With all the problems of coal in this country in the area of air quality, where are we going to easily get rid of coal for power generation, Wind energy will require over 20,000 miles of new transmissition lines to get the power to the substations and the people. that is a major right of way problem and will get solved by eminient domain I'm afraid in the years to come. We need to enhance our coal resources natioanlly and burn it as clean as possible. Coal is not an enemy but Obama can't see it at all.

Mar 11 11:06 AM

[User 267708:]

According to FERC energy tables, solar and wind power generation constitute approximately .55% of total energy generation. Doubling the generation will bring it up to 1.0%. The increase is not significant and definitely does not warrant the projected costs or grid construction. Nuclear energy is a much more cost productive source of energy and is the most neglected source. Approximately 400 new nuclear plants are being projected worldwide by 2030, but the US government and greens are treating it like the plague. It's time to accept that the environmental movement is political, not economical or scientific.
dickm

Mar 11 12:44 PM

[Amitabha Mu...:]

When a purely engineering problem is attempted to be solved by the politicians who know little about engineering then this type of situation develops. The technological softening of America took place quite a few decades earler from when the very best boys and girls of the country opted for medicine, law , financial management and literatures totally avoiding engineering and technology fields. The country would be in a far more comfortable position if it could produce hundreds of thousands of top quality engineers.
Then this madness for technologies which are primitive and of low density would not get priorities.
America could do better if it could produce better atomic power plants and breeder reactors. But instead it is walking backwards. That day is near when the country would work to install sails in ships instead of turbines.

Mar 11 02:13 PM

[SubsidyEye:]

Amitabha, I agree that the country needs more good engineers. But you shouldn't believe that with more engineers the policies would be much different than they are now. For one, there are around 38 senators from farm states. That gives biofuels a good head start in the political market. For another, I have known plenty of engineers who know little about economics (other than the economics of individual projects).

And I've known many engineers (and chemists) who just LOVE the challenge of the improbable. (Think ocean thermal energy conversion, for example.) The popularity of technologies which are primitive and of low density is not just a result of stupid policymakers, or green dreams: they are precisely the kinds of technologies that attract big research grants.

Mar 11 02:44 PM