The Battle Lines Are Drawn in the War for Mobile Developers

Microsoft (MSFT) has offered up more details on its mobile developer strategy, matched Apple’s (AAPL) App Store revenue split and offered a more transparent process for app approval. With the details of Microsoft’s plans revealed developers are hit with a conundrum: What mobile platform do you bet on? After all, Apple, Microsoft, Research in Motion (RIMM), Palm (PALM), Nokia (NOK) and Google’s Android all have application markets launched or planned.

But here’s the problem: There are only so many developers and there is only so much time. At some point developers will have to choose sides–or at least eliminate a few platforms as options. In the end, this selection process is likely to come down to a few obvious items:

• Money;
• Reach of the platform;
• Developer relations.

In the grand scheme of things all three of those items are probably equal. Meanwhile, all of these application markets offer similar revenue splits–developers get at least 70 percent of the revenue.

From there the winnowing down process becomes a game of market share and relations with developers.

In that context, Microsoft’s moves Wednesday make a lot of sense (statement, Techmeme). As Mary Jo Foley reports, Microsoft may have homely Windows Mobile software relative to sexier operating systems, but it is compensating in other areas.

Foley writes:

Microsoft will allow devs to see detailed feedback about their app-certification application throughout the approval process via the developer portal, officials emphasized.

(The transparent-feedback perk is no doubt in response to Apple, whose iPhone app store approval policies have been criticized by a number of developers for being murky.)

Microsoft is allowing Win Mobile developers to set different prices for their applications in each market. Developers also will have the option of distributing apps for no cost via the Windows Mobile Marketplace. Microsoft is allowing up to five application submissions as part of the introductory annual $99 registration fee. Student developers won’t be charged the registration fee if they enroll in the Microsoft DreamSpark program.

Microsoft’s message: We’re going to be better to developers. That’s not entirely surprising since I think developer relations are Microsoft’s real secret sauce anyway.

Given Microsoft’s Windows Mobile penetration–it powers millions of devices in the U.S.–I’ll assume that the software giant won’t be cut out of the developer picture even if the pace of Windows Mobile releases needs to pick up.

I’d love to hear from developers on this matter since their platform selections will unfold in the months and years to come. It’s a topic I’ll revisit too. Simply put, what follows is a first crack at how developers may pare their platform selections (it’s premature to make any rash decisions since many of these app markets are just about to launch).

Here’s a look at the various platforms:

Apple: Based on sex appeal Apple’s App Store is a must have platform for developers. Simply put, Apple can pull developers along based on its brand. The revenue split–70 percent to developers–is good, but other processes such as the app approval process are a bit murky. However, the sheer number of applications on App Store means that these processes will be smoothed out. Apple is creating the market for applications that everyone else is trying to copy. One downside: The App Store has a lot of me-too applications so the competition is fierce. It remains to be seen if Apple’s App Store becomes cluttered with too much junk.

Bottom line: Mobile app developers have to do the iPhone thing. And for mobile game developers Apple is almost the only game in town. The enterprise app market is developing on the App Store too.

RIM: For the corporate app developers, you have to play ball with an applications market associated with the BlackBerry. For all its fascination with the consumer market, RIM is all business. And RIM’s recently revealed pricing tiers lean enterprise too. If you’re a game or consumer app developer, however, RIM isn’t the slam dunk that Apple is. Another wild card is RIM’s developer relations and how easy it is to develop on the BlackBerry platform.

Android: Android’s market is up and running and the revenue split is the usual 70 percent. Despite all the Google love that Android gets there are a few big questions for developers to ponder:

• Where are the devices? Right now, you’re developing for the G1 on one carrier—T-Mobile. Neither scream huge dollars.
• What’s the potential? The potential is that Android could be huge with its open source roots and Google’s clout. However, there’s a need for more devices and they aren’t expected to arrive until next year.
• Is it worth allocating resources to Android today? Answering that question will solely rest with the resources available. My hunch: You can dabble with Android applications, but it’s hard to justify putting all the developer eggs in the Android basket.

Palm: Palm has its mobile app store planned too. The problem here is that Palm’s entire business largely rides on the success of the Pre launch and the marketplace is just a hyperlink. Pre could be the next big thing. Or it may only be a moderate success. Hell, maybe the Pre and Palm flop. In any case, the decision to develop Pre apps will depend on how easy it is relative to others. Simply put, there really is no Palm platform today and the company’s WebOS is a complete wild-card.

Nokia: Nokia also has a store planned, but the appeal will be limited in the U.S. Why? Nokia is a no-show among U.S. carriers. For international developers, however, Nokia’s app marketplace may be a big deal.

These aforementioned issues are at a high-level. Let me know other issues that I neglected to mention for future posts on the subject.

Comments

[davesmall:]

This war is already over and done. Game, set, and match to Apple.

Mar 11 12:50 PM

[iJah420:]

The APPROVAL process is NOT the problem....Get a grip PEOPLE!!!

The development of the Apps with AAPL's SDK is LIGHT YEARS ahead of any and ALL competitors @ this time.

The headaches for Windoze Mobile developers for wannabe iPhones is just in its infant stages. You NAYSAYERS STILL DO NOT GET IT AFTER ALL THESE YEARS!!!

$30B in cash and NO DEBT with a HEALTHY product lineup and an OS that has YET to show its true colors..... Get a GRIP!!!!!

IJah420 is fed up with stodgy corporate types that don't know their !@# from their elbow when it comes to tech.... Good GRIEF!!!

Mar 11 12:55 PM

[Johnnymack:]

How can anyone beat Apple?
You need software for the masses, with an ability to sync effortlessly, or do firmwares updates, etc. Apple uses iTunes, which MILLIONS of people have installed TODAY. (I don't have a RIMM or Nokia data sync program on any computers in my home. Will they work easily, support what platforms, have any bugs??)
Millions of people have accounts with iTunes Music Store, tied to credit cards, etc. They've sold BILLIONs of songs since opening.
The iPhone works just like an iPod for syncing, Apps for iPhone download just like songs.
It's so rock solid I don't see anyone doing better!
I HAD a Palm (650?) and installed Palm Desktop software for OSX on my mac, to help sync data. I also needed something called a "conduit" for Palm, etc. I NEVER got it working correctly. It sucked, and that was mostly just for Contact info, not movies, music, photos, etc.

Mar 11 01:36 PM

[Zoltan L. K...:]

Apple has a solid lead in this competition. It has not only developed the AppStore but has a huge experience with the iTunes Store. Anyway, the market for smartphones will grow much faster because of the emerging ecosystems built by manufacturers.

Mar 11 01:45 PM

[PaulFD:]

Apple also has the advantage of the iPod touch which will grow to become a much larger piece of its ipod sales. The iPod touch is aimed right at the teenage market who cannot afford the expensive data plans which go along with all of the smart phones.

The iPod touch gets the teenagers hooked and when they can afford a smart phone, guess which one they buy?

Mar 11 01:58 PM

[Tom B:]

I agree with iJah420. MSFT has never put together a credible set of programming API's for MS Windows; it seems unlikely they have the competence to deliver anything decent for Windows Mobile. Moreover, any app would have to run on diverse WM phones, of varying hardware quality; you'd get the same driver/firmware issues that plague Windows PC's.

Mar 11 02:07 PM

[peter02l:]

"developer relations are Microsoft’s real secret sauce anyway."

Like stringing them along for years over new technologies that never materialize. Like waiting to see you develop a market and then moving in to take over it.

Mar 11 02:11 PM

[peter02l:]

"The App Store has a lot of me-too applications so the competition is fierce."

The only me-too applications on Windows Mobile store will be from Microsoft.


Here is the latest innovation from Microsoft:

www.electronista.com/a.../

Microsoft put the best minds in the business to design it.

Mar 11 02:20 PM

[iJah420:]

This is so very true. These kids LOVE iTunes. Yes it has some quirks but nothing on the scale that the new MSFT App marketplace will encounter.
The kids WILL buy iPhones.... it has Exchange BUILT IN for crying out loud...

Look folks... MSFT to THIS DAY! CAN NOT get the Zune marketplace to take off.... MSFT DEVELOPED IT!!!! AND Can't get that right.

What makes naysayers of AAPL believe by some MIRACLE that this App Marketplace by MSFT will be easy to use and available to millions of people who possess a cornucopia of hand sets????

People People People....... lets please get a reality check here.

Apple Develops their own software and designs their own hardware for the desktop and the mobile space.

Name ONE (1) other OEM handset/smart phone Co. that owns a desktop OS that runs EXCLUSIVLY on their hardware (Desktop/Laptop AND Smartphone)?

As a side note Macs boot to OSX, Windows and multiple flavors of Linux and to ad insult to injury Apple is Certified UNIX. Snow Leopard will have exchange support built in and it will be entirely 64bit . It is just a shame IT dweebs can't see the light due to the fact that they have their heads so far shoved up their collective hind quarters.

People. Microsoft DOES NOT DO HARWARE!!!!! Hello. Anyone? Bueller?
BALLMER????

IJah420 says wait second I forgot about Windows 7!!! That OS will be ROCKING!!!!!! ;) OH YEAH!....... Good luck with the enterprise roll out of that house of cards.....some people you just can't reach.

ps. Please do not come back with What about the XBox... as a hardware desktop solution from MSFT.... I say Spinning Red light death message.....

need I say more..... BILLIONS $$$$$$$ in RMA... What a JOKE!!!





On Mar 11 01:58 PM PaulFD wrote:

> Apple also has the advantage of the iPod touch which will grow to
> become a much larger piece of its ipod sales. The iPod touch is
> aimed right at the teenage market who cannot afford the expensive
> data plans which go along with all of the smart phones.
>
> The iPod touch gets the teenagers hooked and when they can afford
> a smart phone, guess which one they buy?

Mar 11 03:31 PM

[Miamicanes:]

In two years, there will be three viable phone platforms: iPhone, Windows Mobile, and Google Android. RIM will end up being acquired by either Microsoft or Google, and quickly adopt the platform of whatever company ends up owning them.

The biggest threat to Microsoft isn't Apple... it's Android. Why? Out of the box, a phone running Windows Mobile is just about the most dysfunctional telephony device you can possibly suffer the pain of using. It's almost as if WinMo's development team lives on a strange planet where voice calls are rare and unimportant distractions. For years, exactly one thing has saved Microsoft: thirdparty developers who inevitably make the system extensions, enhancements, and utilities that make it tolerable, if not good.

Here's the problem: the majority of those core apps aren't commercial products, and for the most part they came about as recreational development projects by programmers who bought a phone for themselves, then set out to make it tolerable.

That group of developers is now head over heels in love with Android. Just search Youtube for videos made by guys who've already ported Android to run as a guerrilla operating system on Windows Mobile phones used by Sprint, Verizon, and AT&T.

I think you can see where this is going. If Windows Mobile 7 is anywhere near as ugly and dysfunctional as Windows mobile 5 and 6 were on the PPC-6700 & Touch, it's now likely to STAY that way. The guys who saved the 6700, Touch, and Mogul from Microsoft's disaster of a UI have new hobbies now, and their main interest in phones like the Touch Pro lies mainly with porting Android to it so they can have Android without leaving Sprint.

One thing is almost certain: regardless of what might happen to Apple or Microsoft, Android is here to stay. It might not flourish or become mainstream without the backing of Google, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, and Verizon... but the phone genie is now out of the bottle. If the cellcos abandon Android, it'll get hacked onto their new phones *anyway*. When Microsoft or Apple decides a phone is officially end of life, that's it. The phone is dead, and might as well be chucked in the trash. That's NOT the case with Android.

In the long run, I think Android is less of a threat to Microsoft than it is to Apple. If Microsoft buys RIM, it can happily settle into a role where it's the corporate-managed phone of choice. Upper-management types hate Linux with a passion and don't trust it, regardless of how much love it might get from their underlings.

Apple, in contrast, is scared to DEATH of Android. There are ALREADY Chinese companies selling phones running LiMo (which is quickly converging towards Android and will likely end up as the equivalent of another Mobile Linux distro within a year or two anyway) that give their users everything the iPhone does... but without Apple's annoying restrictions and arbitrary limits. At the end of the day, anyone can hack an Android phone's UI to look and act like an iPhone's, regardless of whether it's blessed or approved by Google, the carrier, or Apple. Android won't destroy Apple anymore than Linux has, but it most certainly WILL cannibalize a good part of what would otherwise be Apple's core target market.

I can't speak for the rest of the world (Symbian is quite popular outside America, but almost completely irrelevant here), but I see the "Phone OS" market ending up very much like the desktop PC market: Microsoft dominating the "enterprise" phone market, Apple dominating the "trendy/fashionable/ce... phone market, and Android -- with Android depriving Microsoft and Apple of lots of money, even if it ultimately makes very little money for Google and Android's developers.

Mar 11 03:43 PM

[iJah420:]

Miamicanes

Some valid points. However Linux is for the PC Tinker. yes some compelling features but the mass market appeal is minimal.

These kids do not have the patience today to deal with dowload patch r1.5 A-00021-G but before u run that you must first make sure that your firmware is up to date on the latest version fm 2.665-1 but that only applies to the Nokia e series 3 but does not include the series S which by the way needs a different firmware rev which is available only from Android exlusive Nokia site which has no affiliation with the G1 series made by HTC but does not include the upcoming G6 Andriod phones only available through Google's exclusive site.

You see where I'm going with this?

Mar 11 04:19 PM

[teedee1198:]

Good article, whats needed is one development platform that is capable of allowing developers to develop once for all platforms. It works for 80% of the applications.

Cascada Mobile breeze platform is the answer

Mar 11 04:55 PM

[argosy:]

Miamicanes,

I agree. Short term Microsoft needs to worry most about Android. It is a competing OS to Winmobile and it is free. MS will have to come up with something really compelling to entice handset/carriers to pay for an OS when Android is free for the taking.

In the long run Apple needs to worry about Android. Apple will combat this with:
-close control over hardware (ie. making sure that most if not all incarnations of the iPhone operate similarly and can run most if not all the current applications).

-Legacy tie in. Current iPhone users are becoming addicted to the App. store and will think twice about abandoning their current apps when upgrading to a new phone (one of MS's saving graces over the last couple of years on the PC side, how ironic ;v)

-Remember, Apple's purchase of PA Semi? Apple now has "control" of it's own mobile processor destiny. Even if everyone catches up on the Mobile OS, iTunes syncing, and App store fronts, Apple could have unique hardware/processor capabilities

Lastly
-Remember Apple's lead in the music/movie/podcast and movie rental download side. The tremendous success of the App. Store has kind of overshadowed their success in that arena. The iPhone is still a kick ass iPod!

Regardless of what Apple does with it's "lead" in all these areas, the ensuing battle is going to be great for all of us!

Cheers,
Argosy

Mar 12 12:02 PM

[User 359396:]

I enjoyed your article. In your opinion, which of these platforms has the potential to become a "must have" with the masses? Perhaps I am being silly, but can you imagine a tiping point,simular to various media format wars, where someone takes a brand killing lead?

Mar 12 08:48 PM

[KenC:]

The article raises an interesting question, where will developers go, and then all the comments talk about where the users will go. Okay, so they're related.

I would say that the article doesn't develop the various choices very much, but what really struck me is the total non-comment about device fragmentation. Sure there are lots of WinMo users, but they are on dozens of devices, as MS is so happy to tell us. Dozens of devices all with different configurations and specs. Any developer who is considering a platform to develop on is going to look at installed base by how many iterations of an app he will have to develop. If he develops for OS X, there's essentially one config, though the iPod touch is missing a couple things like camera, mic, etc. If he develops for WinMo, there are so many possible combinations of OS, cpu, gpu, screensize, etc., etc., etc.. This is a key consideration and totally unaddressed by the author.

Mar 13 02:23 PM

[ArtfulDodger:]

Good article. Good points on each company. Thank you.

Mar 17 12:07 AM