Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday March 6.
Stocks That Are Safe At Any Speed: Starwood Hotels (HOT), KeyCorp (KEY), AFC Enterprises (AFCE), American Realty Capital Properties (ARCP), Linn Energy (LINE), Linn Co (LNCO), Celgene (CELG). Other stocks mentioned: Toll Brothers (TOL), J.C. Penney (JCP), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Apple (AAPL), Berry Petroleum (BRY).
Since the Dow took out its all-time high on Tuesday and gained 42 points on Wednesday, many wonder if the market is breaking the speed limit. Stocks have run right through the "red lights" of sequestration worries, the end of the payroll tax holiday, renewed European concerns and fuel prices. Some stocks seemed to have experienced "undeserved" rises, including Toll Brothers (TOL), which has worked its way up after poor earnings and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), up 47% even after a bad quarter. Best Buy (BBY) has risen 58% on mixed results. Apple (AAPL) and J.C. Penney (JCP) are getting punished, the former for its inability to return capital and the latter for its returned merchandise. Bears say stocks are artificially propped up by the Fed's policies. Cramer recommended stocks that are likely to be safe even in the face of an impending correction in the market. He suggests buying any of them at their current levels, except for Celgene, which he would buy on a decline.
Starwood Hotels (HOT) has a great set of international known brands and is building hundreds of new hotels. The company reported a 5 cent earnings beat, with rising revenues per room. If HOT splits into a hotel company and a hospitality management segment, the stock could see a rise from $60 to $75 in one session. While the stock was sitting at $75 five years ago, Cramer thinks HOT is a better company than it was half a decade ago.
KeyCorp (KEY) has been buying back stock aggressively, has a clean balance sheet and trades at a discount to book value. After the next round of stress tests, KEY might be able to boost its dividend to 2%. Cramer thinks 2013 will be the year the regional banks take off, thanks to the housing recovery.
AFC Enterprises (AFCE) has seen a miraculous move of 109% since last year, and its business model has been successful. The company has been growing stores and does not yet have much analyst coverage.
American Realty Capital Properties (ARCP) is a REIT with diverse tenants and is buying back stock. It has risen $1, but is still cheap.
Linn Energy (LINE) and Linn Co (LNCO) are buying Berry Petroleum (BRY) which should create value. There have been questions about LINE's hedging strategies, and this has held down the stock. Linn is growing assets and yields 7.7%.
Celgene (CELG) is at an all-time high, but still trades at a modest 12 times earnings. Cramer would wait for a decline to buy this best-of-breed stock.
Xilinx (XLNX) is a leader in producing programmable chips. The company shares a duopoly with Altera (ALTR), although, given the latter's deal with Intel (INTC), there are concerns about competition. XLNX's chips are designed to use less power and are used in data systems, medical devices and defense technology. XLNX's gross margins reached a near record 66.6%, but management issued downside guidance for the next quarter. At its Analyst Meeting, CEO Moshe Gavrielov said he expected growth to pick up in the latter half of the year.
Gavrielov said he is not worried about competition from Altera and Intel, because "we have the best product on the market." While defense has been a concern for many companies, because of worries over sequestration, it is a "growth area" for XLNX. The company's chips address the "insatiable demand for bandwidth." Cramer praised XLNX for raising the dividend for 8 consecutive years, even as XLNX remains committed to growth and for doubling the company's value in 5 years.
With Cramer's new bullishness on airlines, he dedicated a segment to the online travel industry, which is also seeing an upside. In the last year, Expedia (EXPE) has doubled, Orbitz (OWW) has rallied 110% in just the last few months, but Priceline (PCLN) has risen only 11% since last year. While at first glance, PCLN seems to be a laggard, it is actually a leader; the reason for its less dramatic rise is that, of the three, it has seen the most consistent gains, in the double digits every year. Priceline has the best exposure to international markets; 75% of its revenues come from outside of the U.S. This is important, because the U.S. market is becoming largely saturated. Priceline has more hotel than airline bookings, which is an advantage, because airline bookings are lower margin transactions. Its acquisition of Kayak (KYAK) was a smart move, since Kayak has great mobile apps for online bookings. Priceline beat earnings by 27 cents with a 20.2% increase in revenues, total bookings up 33% and international bookings up 43%. Expedia is Cramer's second choice, but reported a 2 cent earnings miss, with gross bookings up 19%. Orbitz has rallied so much because it has been a loser for so long, and the popularity of the sector brought the stock up. Cramer's pick is Priceline, with a multiple of 18, matched by Expedia. However, Expedia has a lower growth rate at 13% compared to PCLN at 18%.
Ancillary travel plays like HomeAway (AWAY) and TripAdvisor (TRIP), might be alright as speculative plays, but AWAY has run up 50% since November following a strong quarter. However, these companies trade at rich valuations and their technology has low barriers to entry. Cramer prefers waiting for a pullback in these stocks and buying Priceline instead.
Cramer took some calls:
Disney (DIS) is a great stock; "CEO Bob Iger has done well."
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