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Today's 5.26% gain the S&P 500 has placed it at the top of the recent downtrend which began on February 10th. It has traded lower in the channel highlighted below and has tested the upper limit several times today.

click to enlarge

Can the market buck the trend? The chart below is excerpted from a Birinyi research bulletin this morning highlighting market performance on days that are up 3% by 10:00. Granted the chart is for the DJIA, but the composite indicates that on average the market closes at the high. (There have been eight such occurrences since 1990.)

It is probably too late in the day to place any bets on afternoon action, but a breakout above 715 for the S&P 500 might make for a comforting, stomach settling, rally.

Source: S&P 500 at Top of Downtrend