Apple Netbook Will Fill Newspaper Void 51 comments
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As a dedicated reader of newspapers since I was 5 years old, it’s really sad to see the downfall of this great American tradition. Print subscriptions are way down, ad revenue is drying up, and Americans are becoming more and more accustomed to the up-to-date news found on the Internet. The New York Times (NYT) stock is down below $4 a share. Gannett (GCI), the owner of USA Today is down to $2 a share. McClatchy (MNI), the owner of papers like the Miami Herald, The Sacramento Bee, and the Charlotte Observer, is down to $.45 a share. Mike Simonton, an industry analyst, says “In 2009 and 2010, all the two newspaper markets will become one-newspaper markets and you will start to see the one-newspaper markets become no-newspaper markets" (NY Times).
In the end, we all knew that mainstream reliance on newspapers couldn’t last forever but it’s still hard to watch. As if newspapers didn’t have enough to worry about, now they are about to get hit by the Apple (AAPL) train. Reports that Apple is ordering 10-inch touchscreens have been confirmed by Dow Jones, The Wall Street Journal, and Reuters. Many are speculating that these will be used for Apple’s new netbook but I think this device will be much different than what we’re used to seeing in the netbook space. As Apple has done with the Mac, the iPod, and the iPhone, I expect it to revolutionize this sector of the market.
There currently exists a major void of access with the Internet. I’ll call this void the newspaper void. Newspapers are the perfect size to read and they’re portable. The iPhone screen is not the perfect size to sit down and read a newspaper, I’m good for ten minutes of reading on the iPhone screen; anything more is too much for my eyes to handle. It’s great as a quick reference, but it is primarily a phone. My laptop has a good sized screen but the clunky keyboard and lack of universal WiFi access make it hard to use as a newspaper replacement. This new netbook/tablet/E-book reader/whatever you want to call it will fill a niche. Users will be able to take it on the subway, take it in the car, take it on the back porch, take it to breakfast, take it to the pool, take it wherever you would normally go to read a magazine or newspaper.
Apple has seen enough evidence that the netbook space is big enough for them to enter. IT research company Gartner expects PC sales to drop by 12% in 2009, but they don’t think that drop will come from netbooks. In fact, they are forecasting netbook sales to grow from 11.7 million units sold in 2008 to 21 million in 2009. In this recession, consumers are shopping price and Apple will benefit from having a sub $600 alternative. I would imagine that this device will come with a built in 3G Internet connection so that universal internet access is not a problem. It won’t have a keyboard like the other netbooks do, and it won’t be made to do much more than read the news from the Internet, watch television shows and movies, and play games from the app store. Once again, Apple is the true innovator of the technology revolution going on in this day and age.
Disclosure: Long AAPL.
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This article has 51 comments:
Weren't you the same writer who a few months ago was bragging about how wonderful the world is for short sellers of bank stocks?
You spew nonsense on your best days.
Jay Fredrickson
i-95south.com
One word: Newton.
Nice try, Jay!
"This is a demographically necessary product, an iTablet that is big enough for the aging population to see web pages clearly and watch movies and play games without eye strain.
"This will be THE ultimate portable PDA / computer / gaming device. It will incorporate all the perks of the iPhone plus a better camera, videocam, videoconferencing, voice recognition, cut-n-paste, the whole shebang.
"It will be far more than the sweet resurrection of the Newton and like the Newton it will be embraced by the medical community, scientists, business ppl and all those who want to stay connected and organized and keep everything easily accessible on the go at their fingertips.
"The iTablet will be a major success, fun, extremely useful and a total gamechanger."
To which I added: "Don't forget the e-book reader and digital voice recorder!" I believe that Amazon's recent announcement that it will make its Kindle-format items (including periodicals) viewable on the iPhone is a precursor to doing so on the iWidget (or whatever apple calls it).
Of course you so proudly bend over backwards to get on TV and deal with the crooks at thestreet.com that you are part of the problem. They'll take anyone willing to serve their agendas to screw investors. They especially like green guys like you because they use you as a puppet, without you understanding what's going on. Good luck.
Then compare this idea with the success of the Kindle - which shouldn't exist based on the "Bill Gates" comments above. Add in the ability for newspapers to sell advertising in their editorial space (which the Kindle does not allow) and you've got more than a strong niche, you've got real progress.
What difference does it make what Bill Gates had in his office in 1996? Where do I buy one of those Bill Gates tablets? Did it have internet access everywhere? The point of the article isn't that Apple invented anything, only an really dense person would fail to figure that out. The article speculates about a complete product with key features being low price, built-in 3G internet, and Apple's focus on usability. That thing you are thinking of had none of those features.
On Mar 13 08:47 AM jay fredrickson wrote:
> Bill Gates had a tablet in his office in 1996 and at that time he
> said this is where the future of newspapers is going. To say that
> Apple is an innovator is ridiculous. Gates and his team have had
> this idea for more than a decade. This news is so old, I wonder what
> credibility you have in this space.
> Weren't you the same writer who a few months ago was bragging about
> how wonderful the world is for short sellers of bank stocks?
> You spew nonsense on your best days.
>
> Jay Fredrickson
>
> i-95south.com
i expect something like a larger iTouch, maybe the size of a kindle... i read books on my iphone all the time and also listen to audio books there, but it's hard to speed read on the iphone because there's not enough viewable content all at once. i'd prefer a paperback book size to a 10 inch screen that was mentioned above but i'm sure Apple will make whatever they do great, lightweight, intuitive and reliable...and cool.
... Anywhere, anytime access to our content via the web at MobileMe.
Apple can charge whatever it wants for the MacCloud, for the connectivity, and for a subscription to MobileMe. And it can collect for purchases of software, books, audio, video, whatever, which can then reside online, always available to the MacCloud user. All of these revenues can flow directly to Apple.
... Money is the ultimate content stream.
Google around for "Knowledge Navigator" and you'll see Apple was over a decade ahead of Bill Gates and his copy cat criminals.
Apple has set the direction for the computer industry since 1976, Microsoft has done nothing to contribute, so get your facts straight.
On Mar 13 08:47 AM jay fredrickson wrote:
> Bill Gates had a tablet in his office in 1996 and at that time he
> said this is where the future of newspapers is going. To say that
> Apple is an innovator is ridiculous.
A true iTablet with good battery life would be a welcome product in many schools with few of the drawbacks of the Gates device.
You can read a bit more here:
<adverlab.blogspot.com/...;
Before the lab was set up, individual KR newspapers were looking at electronic alternatives to printed newspapers, such as delivery by fax, dial-up bulletin boards (this was before the Web took off), etc.
Many in the industry knew times were a-changin' way back then.
If newspapers go away, as so many people now want to predict, the flow of reporting also dries up on the internet, as well as tv and radio (which get much of their material from newspapers as well).
The internet isn't a source of news, just a way to access it. Someone, in the end, has to finance the gathering of news.
Hold and read it with two hands. Right thumb squeeze to move page down. Left thumb squeeze to move page up. Use your finger to highlight words, sentences and information. Talk into it to annotate or to remind yourself to pick up milk and toilet paper on the rare day it goes on sale. Plug in earphones to listen to music while you read. Finger gesture to fill screen with ten inches of Porn. Finger gesture again to zoom into NASDAQ for the latest price of Apple stock. All while standing on the Unemployment line.
Oh, yeah, there are no more newspapers!
[For Jay above to credit Gates demonstrates utter ignorance - and it's inexcusable to attack the writer the way he has.]
Everyone who is using the iPhone, or Mac computers, know that this is going to be the product that truly revolutionises our computing lifestyles, of that there is no doubt.
Apples' OSX is already shown to be a mighty flexible OS, and it is impossible to see it not creating a touch based game changer sitting between the laptop and the iPhone.
Expect long long lines (queues)...
Thanks,
Stephen Heywood
thetechbuzz.net
ttbn.thetechbuzz.net
The looming question is, however, which OS is it going to run? Is it going to be a modified OS X or a modified iPhone/Touch OS? I'm hoping the former. OS X has had gesture/touch support for a decade. Will there be stylus support for easier handwriting translation? Will they open development of the OS with App tools like in the iPhone and then meld this concept with something that looks more like OS X whilst still making it a transparent peripheral that works with Widows and Mac?
Let's stop bashing and talk about what matters.
The iPhone and Touch already run a slim version of OSX. A stylus will never appear on an iPhone / Touch or Tablet, Apple forever got rid of them during the 2007 keynote. Search ebay if you want one for the iPhone, etc.
Development is already open for OSX and the iPhone, google iPhone Developer for more info.
More importantly, the WSJ, Reuters and DowJones did not name their industry sources, and two of those just cited the oft-cited Commercial Times of Taiwan, which is written in Chinese, and often wrong.
Third, there is NO WAY that a 10" multitouch screen device is going to be $600. Just not going to happen. You'd need something like 8 of the current iPhone screens to make a 10" multitouch screen. It'd be beautiful, but ridiculously expensive at the present time.
Fourth, any such device will be at best take two iPhone screens side-by-side to make a VGA 640x480 size. This has huge advantages. One, they have economies of scale with this screen already. Two, they can price it at $400 to $500, the sweetspot of the netbook market. Three, the iPhone GUI nor apps would not need to be altered. This is a big deal. The iPhone AppStore attracts so many developers because there is an installed base of about 23M iPhones and iPod touches that all have mostly the same specs. Of course, a few apps that need a mic, like Ocarina, won't work on the touch. Or if an app needs better GPS than wifi-localization. Or if an app needs the camera, the touch won't do. But, for the vast majority, the developer need only develop the one app. No mods whatsoever. A VGA sized iTab could still use the same UI, just scaled, and it will look fine. Of course, developers who want the detail, can modify, but for the most part, it won't be necessary. This is important. Device fragmentation is why the other app stores on Android and WinMo and Symbian will have a difficult time catching up to the iPhone, because developers will have to modify any app for the many different handset combinations out there.
That's why a 10" screen iTab makes no sense right now. A VGA sized 5" screen that folds in half, exactly the size of the current iPhone, makes the most sense.
On Mar 13 09:56 AM Mike Stathis wrote:
> Sad to see the end of the newspapers? Are you kidding? They are
> imploding as is the rest if the media industry because people are
> sick of the lies, agendas and BS.
>
They said multi touch would be way too expensive shortly before the iPhone was announced. The industry at that time was recently blown away with what they were doing in Berkely w/ multi toch and was previewed to larger audiences at the TED conference in '06. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple has contracted a proprietary high res touch interface that could be squeezed in 10".
What about the WiMax standard? It's getting traction. Too early?
I don't see this iCloud as a Kindle killer, since the Kindle's e-ink would still be superior for reading books, which has always been the Kindle's target audience. It's easier on the eyes for long-term reading, and it consumes much less power. Amazon has not priced the Kindle as a mass market device, and Bezos specifically stated that he doesn't want the Kindle to be a multi-function device, both of which I suspect indicate a desire to cooperate with Apple in promoting the Kindle-format and Amazon's content-selling site.
Well, that's not what the future looks like. Yes, newspapers used to be the bastion of reliable reporting... but then local TV took over in the 60's... so we are just seeing the next logical jump to Twitter, Blogs and real time iPhone cameras (in the near future) to do reporting on local news.
Apple doesn't have to lift a finger, hit ratings and user ratings will determine who is honest and accurate, not someone sitting behind a desk or "network" camera.
It's all very "generational", so do worry... the demise of the newspaper has been predicted for decades and slowly but surely it is happening...
Get a Mac, learn iMovie, get an iPhone and you'll be powerful over the next few decades.
All this was mapped out by Apple in the 80's, so it's no massive surprise.
---
TV did not "take over" local news in the 1960s. Most local TV stations still rely on their local paper for a lot of their news. It worked out that way because newspapers traditionally have had much larger staffs than any other news medium. You need boots on the ground to dig up new, and that's what we lose when we lose newspapers.
As for Twitter, bloggers and iPhones ... don't make me laugh. While people making note of events with such technology has its place, it is no substitute for actual journalism. Who's will attend city council meetings and legislative hearings? Who will spend months investigating corruption in politics and business? Bloggers? Not if they have a day job. And Twitter is a social medium, not a news medium.
The iPod will get bigger and become MacCloud. The computer for the rest of us. Actually that would be MacTROU. And indeed, it should still fit in a front jeans pocket. See features above.
All the rest of the eye line, shuffles, nanos, touches, can continue on. But the MacCloud and the itty bitty iPhone are the dreadnoughts of the line.
Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Apple cancel their order for iPod or iBook chips or screens when the manufacturer leaked information about their product being used for an iPod or iBook?
This questionable "leak" or "news" article, does nothing but drive up Apple's stock price. Why hasn't Apple canceled their order? A better question is, if a ten inch newspaper reader is not forthcoming from Apple, can Microsoft jump in with a ten inch Zune?
"As an investor I want to see Apple continue to expand the list of innovative products that fill real needs that all humans world wide are dealing with."
At the shareholders meeting I wanted to ask (but time ran out) them to talk about the philosophy of how they decide how many products to produce. Early on it seemed important to slash the product lines and focus on a few well selling devices. Now that Apple's share has grown and OS X is stable and legacy technology has been left behind would it make sense for Apple to enter more markets and capture more revenue? For example, why not make a small sized tower, or a hardened laptop, or a laptop with a much larger screen or other such variations? I'm not advocating for these in particular, just thinking that Apple may be leaving revenue on the table by not having a broader product line.
PS: The Knowledge Navigator is one of my favorite Apple videos. There have been various threads discussing how close we are to that idea. iChat is now commonplace. Voice recognition and synthesis are now quite good. The internet provides access to a large amount of information. The hardware is there to make a device as thin as that in the video. I think the key part missing is the ability of a software program to understand general instructions.
@ Thomas Jefferson: You're right, of course. Newspapers perform an irreplaceable function.
I'm still confused as whether the Apple tablet is going to be the double-size iPod Touch or is it going to be a completely different product.
The arrogance of the mass media in promoting agendas has been too obvious for a looonnngg time and their reporting has suffered greatly for awhile. Due to their mental constipation, media concentration by only a few owners and increasing financial constraints.
They have reacted like GM and what's left of them needs to change or die. How about innovate? But, what value have they had bringing on any advance information about the looming financial meltdown before it happened? Where are whistleblowers? A thing of the past with the industry in it's present decadent, dying state.
DynaMac!
The death of the printed newspaper is great thing for the environment- think of the number of trees it would save. The countless pounds of less trash that needs to be hauled around or finds itself in on the streets. If you want to read a newspaper, subscribing to a web edition or buying a Kindle is the way to go. Or if you're a Mac user, find the sight that reports want you want and use Apple's simple and elegant widget maker- talk about getting to the point.
As for Apple getting into the net-book market, I don't think so. The margins will simply not be there. Why make 3 or 5% on a product when you could make 30% or more on others??? Leave that to the Acers of the world.
What would be great, and maybe this would come with iPhone 3.0, would be if you could make a widget on your Mac, as described above, and then incorporate it as your own app onto your iphone. With this approach, apps can go from 25,000 today to millions in a month!!!!
You are right about saving millions of trees.
If all the newspapers just stop printing for one week, this whole world will be much greener.
The next point is, most of these newspapaers have gone wild and too political. Thus, they created their own demise. The young generations won't touch any newspaper
for any reason. They say "This is for you old folks."
The future of Newspaper is slowly dying. Period.
Yes, but just think how much more coal & oil is burned to keep those computers on and displaying the same information.
Newspapers & books wipe out whole forests each and every day, but the heat from coal and oil wipes out huge sections of ice which keeps us cool, just like trees.
The only solution is conservation and nuclear power if we are to continue to lead the lifestyle we enjoy. Watch the wonderful "Story of Stuff" to get a feel of the whole picture...
www.storyofstuff.com/
@Ted,
Think about all the trees, fuel and energy it takes to write all those newspaper. Then think all the trees plus energy we'll save by not publishing them. 50 million more trees per year means a hey of a lot of CO2 being absorbed.
What is news? Lets face it, Madoff was a crook. Is it news? And to whom?
A man is murdered. Is it news? Not really. I want to know where it was, and what the crime rate in that neighborhood is so I can avoid going there. Now that is information I can use. Do I get that now ? No. Newspapers are past their usefulness and will need to change or die.
The gathering of the news isn't the issue, it is the selection and editing of what is gathered that is noteworthy.
CNN is filling up their airwaves with free content from iReporters. I think it will only be a matter of time (24 months) before the reporter is outsourced and only editors remain. Streams of videos will be analyzed by computers and then selected at the end of the stream with a bit of framing by humans. Streams of writing coming in to newspapers. Local people gathering news about what is news will no longer be news, it will just be the status quo.
On Mar 13 11:18 AM newsman wrote:
> Apple's device, whatever it is, would be just one more way to READ
> the news, which is primarily produced by reporters guess where? Newspapers.
>
> If newspapers go away, as so many people now want to predict, the
> flow of reporting also dries up on the internet, as well as tv and
> radio (which get much of their material from newspapers as well).
>
> The internet isn't a source of news, just a way to access it. Someone,
> in the end, has to finance the gathering of news.
yes, but if you net it all out, using computers is far more damaging to the earth than newspapers is my point.
as a society we have brainwashed our own selves into thinking computers somehow use little energy, but even on this sunday morning there are 10's of millions of them running in homes and businesses with nary a person in sight.
while there are 10's of millions of newspapers running on coffee tables and couches right now as well... but consuming zero energy.
Congrats! You are the only person in the last two decades to use the words "Bill Gates" and "idea" in the same sentence. I am glad others are not so easily placated and accepting of status quo (think 1984). Sometimes you have to look twice to see a really good idea.
On Mar 13 08:47 AM jay fredrickson wrote:
> Bill Gates had a tablet in his office in 1996 and at that time he
> said this is where the future of newspapers is going. To say that
> Apple is an innovator is ridiculous. Gates and his team have had
> this idea for more than a decade. This news is so old, I wonder what
> credibility you have in this space.
> Weren't you the same writer who a few months ago was bragging about
> how wonderful the world is for short sellers of bank stocks?
> You spew nonsense on your best days.
>
> Jay Fredrickson
>
> i-95south.com
I thought he was vermin then, and still do.
Jay Fredrickson