To Those Who Are Giddy Over 3 Day Rally: Get Ready for a Pullback 11 comments
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We’re overbought, there’s no doubt about that, so I closed my longs at the close yesterday. I can’t wrap my head around how giddy everyone is now that we’ve had a quick three day 11% rally. I can’t see us getting out of the grips of this bear that easily. Where’s my Staples button?
Yesterday, it was easy to pick any stock, go long, and book a gain. If that doesn’t worry you then you’re about to get served to the bears in my opinion. I’m not saying we’re going to go straight down, but a pullback is in order.
Scenario one: significant pop at today's open and rally till noon. Go short.
Scenario two: significant drop at the open cascading till noon. Go long.
My market timing system issued a buy signal yesterday, however I must caution you that every buy signal since August has reversed within a matter of days. One could argue that I should get a better signal. I say, it’s easier to change your perspective. Before, I would buy when I got the signal and now I’ve learned that it’s better to sell the signal. Make sense?
Maybe it will be different this time, but I’m not betting the house on it just yet. You want to know what I find curious about the media and around the blogosphere? I have not heard one peep about a retest of the lows. Isn’t that a prerequisite of a true bottom formation? All bottom-talk aside, a pullback of some magnitude should be in order, and if we continue to rise this fast and furious, then I feel this rally is doomed.
Maybe it will be easier to just stay in bed today, after all it’s unlucky number 13th….
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Keep it up Jeff, you are as good or better than most and you are not selling anything. They way the world works, that makes you more valuable from minute one.
On Mar 13 09:31 AM Jonny Rotten wrote:
> Jeff - you should play a little game with yourself. For the next
> 365 days you should post you predictions about what the stock market
> will do each day at each time (say at 9am, 12pm and 4pm). You can
> then compare the results to reality - see them as being no better
> than chance (my feeling is they will be worse than chance) and then
> you can stop writing such non-sense and spend it doing more worthwhile
> things like smelling flowers or petting kitty-cats.
Wrong on this one.
>> Scenario two: significant drop at the open cascading till noon. Go long.
Wrong on this one.
>> Get Ready for a Pullback?
45 minutes to go and looking to be wrong on this one as well?
Could you really go 3 for 3 wrong?
At least one of us was correct this morning in our predictions.
Jeff my good young fellow - perhaps in future when you get the urge to predict the market behavior you should stop, think about it, then pull out your best spaghetti recipe instead and post that.
At least it will be useful :)
"Scenario two: significant drop at the open cascading till noon. Go long."
I look at the DJIA and he is dead on, the bottom was noon!
The first sentence from Jeff's bio "I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months."
Can you add some value to the discussion board? Your prognostication? Fundamentals to offer?
On Mar 13 04:05 PM Jonny Rotten wrote:
> There you go - 3 for 3 wrong. Even less than chance.
>
> At least one of us was correct this morning in our predictions.<br/>...
>
> Jeff my good young fellow - perhaps in future when you get the urge
> to predict the market behavior you should stop, think about it, then
> pull out your best spaghetti recipe instead and post that.
>
> At least it will be useful :)
What drop do you see at the open? Man ... trying to find some way of interpreting this to be right is just non-sense.
>> the bottom was noon!
Of all the predictions that was the closest ... he could have said bottom was the morning, bottom was around noon, bottom was the afternoon.
1 chance in 3. Lets give them man a total of say 5-6 predictions in this. That is 1 for 6.
Did you ever hear the story of the chicken that was fed a kernel of corn every time he lifted his leg. He soon learned to believe lifting his leg caused corn to magically appear.
>> Can you add some value to the discussion board? Your prognostication? Fundamentals to offer?
I don't think you get it ... I AM offering something. Something VERY valuable. I'm looking at this empirically and rationally and making the judgment that result is nothing better than chance. Knowing that then you should not waste your time on it in future. That is all.
I am completely open to being wrong. If Jeff wants to post his daily predictions for a week say (before the market opens) and have them checked every day with a strict criteria regarding what being 'right' means then that would be a worthwhile article and a worthwhile exercise.
Anything else is hot air.
Logically I view it this way....from a short term quick trade view...no one cares how the market opens.... it just determines how to make money today.
Given that the market followed scenario two: cascading down until noon...if you bought noon as instructed then.......you sold at close or need an exit strategy.
On Mar 13 11:31 PM Jonny Rotten wrote:
> >> "Scenario two: significant drop at the open cascading till noon.
> Go long."
>
> What drop do you see at the open? Man ... trying to find some way
> of interpreting this to be right is just non-sense.