The End of (Most) Newspapers

Clay Shirky has a brilliant essay on newspapers and the internet: go read it now. Here's a taste:

When someone demands to be told how we can replace newspapers, they are really demanding to be told that we are not living through a revolution. They are demanding to be told that old systems won't break before new systems are in place. They are demanding to be told that ancient social bargains aren't in peril, that core institutions will be spared, that new methods of spreading information will improve previous practice rather than upending it. They are demanding to be lied to.

I am hopeful, amid the fear; but that doesn't mean the fear isn't justified. The wreckage in the newspaper industry is already devastating, and it's only going to get worse; my base case is a last-man-standing scenario in which the big boys (NYT, WSJ, Guardian, BBC, Reuters) win, and most smaller publications lose. I just hope that the NYT is big enough to survive the storm; its loss would be irreplaceable.

Comments

[User 215068:]

When I was a journaism student at Ohio U. 40 years ago, my professors predicted the demise of newspapers. I went on to work for newspapers for 40 years. During my working career I hear predictions of the demise of radio and then books. I think as long as people want something cheap and portable they can read on the toilet or the subway newspapers will always be with us.


On Mar 14 03:30 PM ED K wrote:

> Progress frequently causes the demise of even great institution and
> that seems to be the case here.Even the mighty NY Times is rumored
> to go bankrupt,possibly later this year.It's very sad to see these
> newspapers vanishing ,one by one.

Mar 14 04:24 PM

[Bobby Rifle:]

>my base case is a last-man-standing scenario in which the big boys (NYT, WSJ, Guardian, BBC, Reuters) win, and most smaller publications lose.

Depends on what field you're talking about. Community newspapers are doing relatively well, better tha n the big boys, although they may be dragged down by their corporate parent (such as in the case of Lee, which is still posting a 19% operating profit. It just ain't enough to cover all the debt they took out to swallow Pulitzer)

The shakeout is more likely to be specialization. Maybe McClatchy shuts down its DC bureau and relies on the NYT instead, for example, while focusing on local news. Similarly, perhaps Dow Jones divests its Ottaway division and focuses on the WSJ and national/business news.

Mar 14 08:36 PM

[Alex Filonov:]

Deadwood press is dead. Books are OK for now, but no periodicals are safe. Especially newspapers. I wouldn't be surprised if NYT is dead in couple of years.

Mar 14 09:48 PM

[Nik Kondrat...:]

What nobody seems to mention in this prediction of the end of newspapers, is that if you try and find anyone under the age of 40 who actually subscribes to newspapers you'd be hard pressed to come up with names. People of the Internet generation (Xers, Gen Y, Millenials) don't read newspapers they consume online. This, to me, says the printed newspaper industry will go the way of the dodo bird. It's a shame, but it's progress I guess.

Nik

Mar 14 10:23 PM

[elwoodsuggins:]

Good riddance to the NYT

Mar 15 09:03 AM

[billp37:]

"Do not fear the enemy, for your enemy can only take your life. It is far better that you fear the media, for they will steal your HONOR. That awful power, the public opinion of a nation, is created in America by a horde of ignorant, self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditching and shoemaking and fetched up in journalism on their way to the poorhouse."

Mark Twain

"Newspapers don't report the news, they shape the news." quipped Libertad co-founder John Gowan.

Mar 15 09:18 AM

[Bruce Vande...:]

I'm sitting here this morning, my feet propped up on the desk, sipping coffee, and reading this article and comments on the internet. Also reading the St. Petersburg Times on my lap (a wonderful paper). I'm hoping the cat doesn't try to get on my lap also.

I will be very sorry to lose the morning paper but Craigslist is decimating the classifieds and financial sites are devastating the business pages (just two examples). I wonder how long the papers can hold out.

Later today I will haul approximately 60 lbs of old newspapers and ads to the recycling center. That, I won't miss. Plus, think of the trees and energy saved.

Blogs and Financial sites like Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, etc. are our future. They will continue to evolve with hundreds times more info than the paper could ever provide, and no recycling.

Mar 15 09:32 AM

[beentheredo...:]

The NYT has consistently been a dependable advocate or at least a front for left wing causes especially the Democratic Party. It is likely the Obama regime will provide bailout funding for this failed corp. Too big to fail takes on a new meaning

Mar 15 09:41 AM

[john s. gordon:]

nik kond -

you may be right, my daughter & my son-in-law don't look @ newspapers, they like to be insulated from the bad news.
> jack

Mar 15 09:47 AM

[mollytjm:]

AP already has 24 hour online international news coverage. It's just surprising that newspapers waited so long to get on the web in an appealing and full way. i grew up with newspapers... we only got tv when i was 10, but i read everything on the web now, except books...and i even read some of those on my iPhone.
there's no going back. for the NYT to say they don't know how to fix it is sort of like the makers of horse carriages saying, when autos came on the scene, that they didn't know how to make the carriages more appealing...as if that would help. there is no fix. there's just change. i like horses a lot, but i don't want to ride one to work.

Mar 15 10:44 AM

[petyaczar:]

Newspapers, and print media generally are the SlideRule Companies of the early 21St Century.

Try and find a Slide Rule company today, there are none.
The slide rule companies disappeared because they became irrelevant as calculators were a superior technology. It took only 20 years for this to happen.

Newspapers and print = Its been 20 years since the internet became pervasive. Within 10 years 99% of newspapers will no longer be in print.

Bye Bye!!! IMO

Mar 15 11:30 AM

[notsosmart:]

dead papers printing

Mar 15 12:00 PM

[Teutonic Kn...:]

Just a add my 2-cents to all the excellent comments:

1) Isn't it that we see it coming for a long while? So much so that I used to dread or even hate all that extra work of trashing (or re-cycling)heavy loads of newspapers. It is a real chore. They stack up fast and occupy huge spaces in the house fast. Old news: who would want to keep or track so much paper if you could do it online.

2) On the bright side, this trend is good for the environment - less trees being chopped down, and less disposals.

3) Going to be real hard on our Northern neighbor Canada. As newsprint demands dry up so will their much relied upon industry and export. Some say that when our unemployment will perhaps go all the way up to ~ 16% before it starts to retreat. Traditionally the Canadian unemployment rate trails the U.S.'s by an additional 2 percentage points. Sorry for our cousin folks in Canada. They will probably see an ~18% rate before it is all over. Myself am ex-Canadian, I know the pain and I sympathize with them.

Mar 15 01:17 PM

[Sterling:]

Rick's Cabaret is worth almost twice as much as A.H. Belo - the owner of the Dallas Morning News and 3 other papers. The market values a chain of strip clubs to be worth twice as much as the Dallas Morning News.

A. H. Belo Corporation (NYSE: AHC) headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is a distinguished newspaper publishing and local news and information company that owns and operates four daily newspapers and a diverse group of Web sites. A. H. Belo publishes The Dallas Morning News, Texas' leading newspaper and winner of eight Pulitzer Prizes since 1986; The Providence Journal, the oldest continuously-published daily newspaper in the U.S. and winner of four Pulitzer Prizes; The Press-Enterprise (Riverside, CA), serving southern California's Inland Empire region and winner of one Pulitzer Prize; and the Denton Record-Chronicle. The Company publishes various specialty publications targeting niche audiences, and its partnerships and/or investments include the Yahoo! Newspaper Consortium and Classified Ventures, owner of cars.com. A. H. Belo also owns direct mail and commercial printing businesses.

Rick's Cabaret International, Inc. (NASDAQ: RICK) operates upscale adult nightclubs serving primarily businessmen and professionals that offer live adult entertainment, restaurant and bar operations. The company owns, operates or licenses adult nightclubs in New York City, Miami, Philadelphia, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Minneapolis and other cities under the names "Rick's Cabaret," "XTC," "Club Onyx" and "Tootsie's Cabaret". Sexual contact is not permitted at these locations. Rick's Cabaret also owns the adult Internet membership Web site, couplestouch.com; a network of online adult auction sites under the flagship URL naughtybids.com; ED Publications, the national trade magazine and convention for the adult nightclub industry; and Storerotica, the national trade magazine and convention for the adult product and intimate apparel industries. Rick's Cabaret common stock is traded on the NASDAQ Global Market under the symbol RICK.

Mar 15 01:35 PM

[john s. gordon:]

teutonic -

finland is also a major source of newsprint.
> jack

Mar 15 04:17 PM

[Gedankonomist:]

"I just hope that the NYT is big enough to survive the storm; its loss would be irreplaceable."

I don't. Good riddance.

Mar 15 06:03 PM

[relaplan1:]

They do not read newspapers in blue precincts.

The people who read newspapers are conservatives and they do not like what they read.

So, the end of newspapers is near!


On Mar 15 09:03 AM elwoodsuggins wrote:

> Good riddance to the NYT

Mar 15 06:54 PM

[samwise:]

don't live in a real city anymore but when I did i used to get a free newspaper (it wasn't the Washington Post--think it was called the Washington Journal, but can't quite remember) all the time. best part? better "news" (mostly gossip. good juicy stuff, too.) it's all humans want and will always keep the print media alive and kickin'. (never once saw this paper miss a single edition--and it was just given away.) as long people don't want "it" printed (thereby making every idiot in the world know you're an idiot) there will be the printed medium. in other words--why pay money or even worse intellectual capital (as in using an ISP and surfing the web) for juicy tidbits when i can get it splashed across the front pages in bold print for all the world to see? Best part? more often than not it's true. (sure is more accurate than what the government tells, ya--right? and why did the government have to pass the "freedom of information act" anyways? and why does the media still have to access that first before it can find out what even the local clowns in government are doing? that sounds like work? who needs facts anymore?)

Mar 15 08:15 PM

[Teutonic Kn...:]

Thanks for the reminder. I missed that one.
Teutonic


On Mar 15 04:17 PM john s. gordon wrote:

> teutonic -
>
> finland is also a major source of newsprint.

Mar 15 10:35 PM

[antiquary:]

Conservatives, every time you open your mouth about the "liberal media," you shoot yourselves in the foot yet again. It amazes me how people who sincerely believe in capitalism and desperately want more conservative voices in media are still completely incapable of using the one to try to accomplish the other. You can't start your own media outlets? Or take over an existing one?

What you're actually against is the fact that the media have until recently prospered with the approach they have now, because most people aren't as conservative as you, and that the only reason they're not prospering now is due to changing societal communication and information consumption patterns, not to the unattractiveness of their editorial approaches. You're like an ugly person who claims all mirrors must be flawed.

Mar 16 12:16 PM