Smartphone Update: 2008 Q4 Market Share

2008 Q4 smartphone marketshare estimates from Gartner, and the folks at the Symbian Foundation are crowing about the results:

• Symbian 47.1%
• RIM (BlackBerry) 19.5%
• Windows Mobile: 12.4%
• Mac OS X (iPhone) 10.7%
• Palm OS 0.9%
• Other 1.1%

If I were working for Symbian (or Nokia (NOK)), I’d be a little less sanguine. Compared to a year ago, Windows Mobile (MSFT) and Palm OS (PALM) are unchanged, but RIM (RIMM) and Apple (AAPL) have risen from 14% to 30%.

Nokia still doesn’t have a US presence, and until they do, RIM and Apple will continue to clean up here. The question is, will its rivals make significant inroads into Nokia’s dominant smartphone market share in Europe and the Rest Of World.

Apple may have a superior product, but it has two key vulnerabilities. First, in most (but not all) of the world, it has limited distribution through its country exclusives. RIM and Nokia have been trying to get their products distributed as widely as possible.

Secondly, Apple has a single premium-priced product while its rivals have product lines at a wide range of price points. In a price-sensitive economy, even in the high-end, smartphone segment one would expect demand to shift to less expensive models.

Apple will someday have a range of iPhone products, just as it has a range of laptops. It’s possible those products will be announced in June, but Apple could lose a lot of its hard-won share in the meantime.

Comments

[geotopia:]

If I read the text right, this article purports that a narrow product range is a negative for Apple, but there's no empirical evidence that a broad range of offerings have helped any of the entrenched players keep or build marketshare, and in fact, the opposite is likely true. There's only one iPhone, not only in that only Apple builds the iPhone, but that Apple only has one model (with different memory capacities, though that hardly broadens their product range, just the "options" available for said product).

Mar 16 05:33 AM

[Zoltan L. K...:]

Concerning Apple's "two key vulnerabilities":

1. the iPhone is still at the early stages of its product life cycle, so it is probably best served through "country exclusives" and distributors, who really stick to the product and are able to give advice on it. At a later stage AAPL could change this strategy, but I can imagine, that the market itself will change to exclusive partnerships.

2. "Apple has a single premium-priced product" and again it is one at the early stages of its product life cycle. It is better to penetrate the market with a one product innovation and educate users to it, later on you can differentiate the product according to user experience, feed-back, and true customer needs. There is really no need to artificially blow up a product category and to try to melk customers.

Mar 16 05:41 AM

[HereAndNow:]

As HTML5-based applications begin to permeate the mobile space, the smartphone OS will become less & less relevant (i.e. all apps will run on all OSes). Then, consumers will base their smartphone decisions on the hardware they like and the user interface they are comfortable with.

Anyone who is not familiar with HTML5 should check out this demo of Gmail using HTML5:
www.youtube.com/watch?...

Also, there is a cool open source tool called PhoneGap that builds cross-platform apps using HTML and Javascript:
phonegap.com/

Mar 16 05:54 AM

[Kontra:]

So Nokia has the widest range and the volume, but it's losing market share.

Apple has a single product, but is gaining market share.

And you're claiming Apple has to ape Nokia?

Well done.

Mar 16 06:20 AM

[Yagottabe K...:]

> ...As HTML5-based applications begin to permeate the
> mobile space...

Those do not hold a candle to native applications and developers understandably are WAY leery of an environment that reveals their source code to all.

It is doubtful there is a huge market for cloud-based applications that allow hiding one's source on a server "out there".

Mar 16 08:19 AM

[SKR MBA:]

Don't ya just love it when a financial journalist (or any journalist for that matter) makes a citation to an off-site source that completely contradicts his premise. Indeed, when it makes him look an utter rhubarb?

Click through on the link above "are crowing", IN RE Symbian's elation over this year's OS usage.

If I were Symbian, based on these numbers, I'd be severely freaking out!

• Q4 year on year growth DOWN 21%
• 07-08 Year on Year growth DOWN 6.1%

Now compare this to iPhone/Mac OS:

• Q4 year on year growth UP 111.6%
• 07-08 Year on Year growth DOWN 245.7%

And if I were Joel West, I'd be severely embarrassed.

Mar 16 08:37 AM

[Edward, Lor...:]

SKR MBA
Please check the definition of "sanguine," as in West suggests Symbian should be less.

If you write you should understand the meanings of the words you employ.

Mar 16 09:15 AM

[SKR MBA:]

Uh, I didn't employ the word... and I'm fully aware of its meaning: cheerfully optimistic. Therefore, I stand on my original point "a little less than sanguine" v "severely freaked out".

But more to the point, the author asks us, the readers, to do our own research, i.e., go to the website wherein the obvious facts point out that his article is nothing more than Monday morning meet-the-deadline fodder and mis-direction.

Why not position the piece to coincide with the facts instead of Old Eaton hyperbole? Symbian is losing share by the bucket loads, and Mac OS is literally taking the market away from everybody? A fact, mind you, that is not expressed on the face of this piece, but rather in the citation off site.

But hey that's just me.

Mar 16 11:42 AM

[optionsgirl:]

Here is the yes "but"... in areas like Japan, where they demand a lot of features, the Apple hasn't made in-roads. I think the point is not to have dumbed down i-Phones, but even greater enhanced products.


On Mar 16 06:20 AM Kontra wrote:

> So Nokia has the widest range and the volume, but it's losing market
> share.
>
> Apple has a single product, but is gaining market share.
>
> And you're claiming Apple has to ape Nokia?
>
> Well done.

Mar 16 11:59 AM

[Thomas Jeff...:]

The reasons Apple makes one version of the iPhone: software, software, software. Any significantly different version of the iPhone would break compatibility with the 25,000 apps in the App Store -- one of the key selling points of the iPhone. That's not a vulnerability.

Mar 16 12:40 PM

[Aryamehr:]

Just because a company is gaining market share is no indication that it will prevail and become the leader of any industry. Its like assuming China is the world's super power based on its growth rate. When you start from zero it is very easy to grow in leaps and bounds, however we all know real growth eventually reaches a plateau. I have no doubt that the Pre and its WebOS will be very successful and initially manifest treble digit growth however no matter how good a product it will be impossible to maintain. To show double digit growth Q on Q for the next couple of years is something that is sustainable if you have a product like the iPhone and now the Palm Pre.

Mar 16 06:02 PM

[ArtfulDodger:]

The author seems worried about Nokia losing more of its share even in Europe, but for investors there's another question: price.

Apple and Rim are priced at premiums, and Nokia is on sale.

Investors have that choice to make: buy the companies that are priced because they're doing well and expected to do even better, or buy the company priced to lose more share.


Joel West wrote:
"The question is, will its rivals make significant inroads into Nokia’s dominant smartphone market share in Europe and the Rest Of World."

Mar 16 11:29 PM

[KenC:]

Apple has more than one product, it has millions of products. If you look at the iPhone and touch as blank slates, and realize that everyone can customize their iPhone and touches with what apps they want and need, Apple has offered millions of different products, at a few price points..

Mar 19 10:21 PM