Joe Foster: Chemistry Is Good for Gold

In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, geologist Joseph M. Foster—a Van Eck Associates portfolio manager who also leads its International Investors Gold Fund—sees nothing but good news for gold in the months and years to come. Joe isn’t holding his breath for mania to set in, but he does see a mix blending that will get gold “firing on all cylinders.” Once a declining dollar, increasing inflation and an improving economy fill the combustion chamber, all it will take is a sustained spark of optimism for gold to forge ahead.

The Gold Report: We appreciate the opportunity to talk with you fresh from site visits in Mexico and the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference in Florida. What do you see for gold in ’09 and ’10?

Joe Foster: Our outlook is quite favorable. We’re into a new phase of this bull market that’s been going on since 2001. The credit crisis, everything that’s happening to the global economy and the reaction of the governments and the monetary authorities set up a very, very positive environment for gold, not only in the near term, but going out many, many years.

TGR:What launched this the new phase?

JF: Earlier in the cycle, it was more an inverse dollar play. We’ve had a bull market in gold. The dollar had embarked on a bear market and gold reacted to the inverse of that. What’s changed is that the level of risk to the financial system has elevated dramatically and we’ve come into an environment where even if we have a strong dollar, we can also have a strong gold price. Investors are genuinely frightened and it’s brought a whole new dynamic to the gold market.

TGR:Where do you see this taking gold?

JF: I’d have to split it into a near-term and a longer-term outlook. First of all, looking at the near term, gold is finding support now because we are in crisis mode. The financial system has not been fixed yet. The economy is in decline. In that environment, investors are seeking gold as a safe haven. They’re also seeking out the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. So that’s creating investment demand for the metal.

Jewelry demand, however, has fallen off a cliff—it’s almost non-existent right now and a lot of scrap is coming into the market. Two dynamics in the gold market are pulling against each other: strong investment demand and very weak jewelry demand. I would see gold somewhat range-bound as long as we’re in crisis mode, being pulled by these two factors. We test $1,000, we pulled back, we’re sitting here around $940 an ounce. It wouldn’t surprise me to see it range-bound between $800 and $1,100 an ounce for the next six months or so until we see some sort of resolution to the situation.

As we look further out, you have to wonder if everything the government is doing will work and whether the laws of unintended consequences play out down the road. Will all this stimulus create inflationary pressure looking out into 2010 and beyond as the economy starts to get back on track? I happen to think it will. At some point, it will come time for the government to withdraw the liquidity they’ve put in the system. However, I think we’ll be in a slow-growth environment that will make that very, very difficult.

We won’t have the access to credit that we had in the past. Credit creation fueled a lot of the growth over the last decade. That will be missing in the next growth phase, so I think we’ll be faced with a low-growth environment that will make it difficult for the Fed to raise rates and rein in liquidity. As the velocity of money begins to pick up when the economy starts to grow a bit, I think we will see some serious inflationary pressures. That will give gold the next leg to stand on and lift it to the next level, which I think will be much higher than what we’ve seen so far.

TGR: In essence, aren’t we going back to an inverse play based on the U.S. dollar? That was the first phase. Now we’re in this crisis phase. As we move into an inflationary era, aren’t we just hedging against the dollar at that point?

JF: Yes, that’s another aspect of what I’m talking about, too. How does the dollar play out in this scenario? As long as we’re in crisis mode, people think of the dollar as a safe haven. As soon as we see a bit of light at the end of the tunnel, equities and other investments will begin to attract investment dollars. At that point, I think money flows out of the dollar. So the dollar could resume its downward trend with a better economic outlook and that would be positive for the gold market.

TGR:So we’d go back to dollar going down, gold going up.

JF: Yes, back to that situation. And then when you layer some inflationary expectations on that, you get gold firing on all cylinders.

TGR:Is that when we begin to see mania or is that the next phase?

JF: As markets go, there probably will be a mania in the gold market as well, but I would guess that’s a number of years off. Who knows? But at least several years off.

TGR: What will trigger the mania? If we’ve made it through the banking and financial and economic crises, and are looking for money to fly back into equities and devalue the dollar, why is mania several years off? Why wouldn’t it be happening as these other shifts begin to occur?

JF: The economy needs to be doing better. Money is too tight. I just don’t think there’s enough liquidity, frankly, to support a mania in the current environment. We need a more positive economic environment to get a true mania going and pull everybody from mom and pop up to the high net worth investors to the institutions, everybody jumping in with both feet. I don’t think there’s enough liquidity in the system at this point, or perhaps it’s all on the sidelines.

TGR: How interesting. So maybe fear won’t spark the mania. You’re almost saying the mania will start when there’s a little bit more optimism.

JF:That’s right, if it happens it will probably occur with more optimism and more entrenched inflationary expectations.

TGR:When you talk about gold, are you talking about bullion or gold stocks?

JF: I’m talking about both, definitely. There’s a different dynamic playing out with the gold stocks because we have to look at earnings and operating risk and political risk and all these other things, but historically there’s been a very high correlation between gold and the gold shares, and I expect that to continue throughout this market.

TGR:Will we see more of that in inflation or in crisis mode?

JF: As far as gold shares go, their crisis was the second half of 2008. They got caught up in the downdraft of the credit crisis and the equities collapse. The stocks have roughly doubled since they bottomed in October of 2008. Gold is up roughly 25% to 30% and we’re seeing money come into the gold sector. A lot of equity financing amongst the gold companies lately tells you there are investment dollars available to the sector. So I think the gold market and gold equities are out of crisis mode. They’re being recognized as an alternative, as a safe-haven hedge.

TGR:And an inflation play, I imagine.

JF: Yeah. The inflation play, or at least a flavor of it, will be with us. People see the Fed printing money to support the financial system, which creates a level of inflationary fear already—and it’s very, very early days. Then the next phase will be if and when we get evidence that inflation is actually taking place, when we see various economic measures telling us that inflation is starting to pick up. Those fears will intensify then. Even though we’re in a deflationary environment at the moment, the seeds of inflation it are already there.

TGR:How do you see silver reacting relative to gold?

JF: Looking at its performance over the last three or four months, I think it’s shown itself to be a currency hedge and a currency alternative like gold. Silver had a tough time last year. It tumbled with the base metals. But again, since October, the performance has been good and we’re seeing high demand for the silver ETF, a shortage of coins and bars. So it’s acting as a currency alternative just like gold now.

TGR:What do you make of the shortage of the coins and the premiums to the spot price?

JF: It’s a small but growing corner of the market, so to me it’s an indicator of investor sentiment. It’s not that big a demand driver. When you look at the tonnage, it’s modest. But it tells me that the sentiment among investors, especially individuals, is very positive. From what I hear, it’s mainly high net worth individuals who are buying the stuff up with a long-term view. It’s quite a leap to go out and invest in physical gold. If a few are actually doing it, then many, many more are probably considering it.

TGR:Would you like to talk about some companies you currently own and think other investors should be considering?

JF:

Growth is a common theme among the larger companies that we overweight. We like a growth story because good news flow comes with growth. Hopefully, we can find managements that can deliver the growth and meet expectations for production and costs. Among the large caps, one of our favorites in that category would be

Goldcorp

(GG). They’re mining mainly throughout the Americas. Most of their mines are in politically safe areas. They’re great operators and are developing some deposits—one in Mexico, called Penasquito; and the other one in a JV with

Barrick Gold Corporation

(ABX) in the Dominican Republic, called Pueblo Viejo. They’re going to drive Goldcorp’s growth for the next several years, and we see some good numbers coming out of Goldcorp looking forward.

TGR:And moving down the ladder?

JF:Going down into the mid-tier group, I guess Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD) would be our favorite in that category. Their operations are in West Africa. Randgold’s growth has come organically, which is really the best kind of growth. They discovered the properties where they’re mining and developing, and that’s the cheapest way to add ounces to the portfolio. Currently they’ve got a developing property in Senegal, which is early days but we see it turning in to a significant mine. Perhaps looking out three or four years, that will add significantly to their bottom line. It’s another internal discovery, so very cheap ounces coming on line for that company. Also, we’ve been to West Africa and Randgold is probably the best connected, knows the Continent probably better than any other company out there. So they’re one of our top mid-tier companies.

Going down to the small caps, we’re seeing exciting plays in several areas with the small caps, mainly in the Americas, particularly Canada. There’s been a resurgence of activity in Canada in some of the old mining camps. We’re seeing new discoveries and new developments that we’re very excited about. Mexico and other parts of Latin America look very favorable to us as well.

In Canada, one of the emerging producers would be Lake Shore Gold Corp (LSGGF.PK). In the Timmins camp, they’ve made a discovery where nobody thought to look before. And Timmins is historically one of the largest producing camps in North America, so there’s still gold to be found there. Lake Shore is developing an underground mine there that we think will be very profitable and should come on line over the next couple of years.

Another Canada small cap is Osisko Mining Corp (OSKFF.PK). They’re in the Val d’Or camp, an old mining camp. They’ve found a very large low-grade deposit that they’re developing there and I guess it will be the first large-scale, low-grade, world-class deposit that’s been developed in Val d’Or. The company just raised enough money to develop it. It’s going to be expensive, costing north of a half a billion dollars, but investors have shown confidence in the company and that they raised over $300 million just this month to build it. They’re well on their way to becoming the next gold producer.

TGR:Does Osisko have a 43-101 on that Val d’Or property?

JF: Yes, it has. After going through several iterations of their resource estimate, more recently they found a new zone they call the Barnett Zone. It’s higher grade than what they’ve found in the past, so it appears to be shaping as a sweetener that will enable them to get a more rapid payback once they begin production. The project is getting better as it moves along.

TGR:Does your website list the stocks you’re invested in?

JF: We publish the full portfolio twice a year with our semi-annual and annual reporting, so for the most recent you’d have to pull up our December 2008 report. Also, our website publishes our top 10 every month.

TGR:Do we do that through the site or we can find that on the site?

JF:Just go to vaneck.com and you can bring up a PDF. (http://vaneck.com/sld/vaneck//offerings/factsheets/IIG_Factsheet.pdf )

Comments

[UserThunder...:]

The Van Eck Fund Precious metals fund is a great vehicle.

Mar 16 02:34 PM

[Avoiding Alpha:]

you have lost all your money havent you


On Mar 16 07:30 PM PAUL&$HARK YACHTING wrote:

> When GC was 250$ I havn't heared of any GC bugs, but with the GC
> going higher, all this losers who lost all their and others people
> money in the 80's, like rats keep coming out of their holes.
> Keep away from GC.

Mar 16 08:51 PM