Chiquita Brands International (NYSE:CQB) is expected to report fiscal fourth quarter earnings on Monday, March 11th. The whisper number is -$0.39, five cents behind the analysts' estimate. CQB has a 0% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 0 of the 3 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 0 qtrs
- Met whisper: 0 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 3 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
The post earnings price movement within five trading days has been negative in two out of the three most recent quarters. The company reported earnings short of the whisper number in two of the three quarters. In May of last year, the company reported earnings twenty-eight cents short of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 29.6% loss in after hours trading, and dropped an additional 5.5% in five trading days. In August of last year, the company reported earnings eight cents short of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 3.4% loss in after hours trading, but turned around with a 9.3% gain in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings twenty-five cents short of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 4.6% gain in after hours trading, but turned around with a 9.6% loss in five trading days. Recent reports indicate significant price volatility following earnings with price weakness being dominant.
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Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.