Costco (COST) is expected to report fiscal first quarter earnings on Tuesday, March 12th. The whisper number is $1.08, two cents ahead of the analysts' estimate. COST has a 38% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 11 of the 29 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 11 qtrs
- Met whisper: 3 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 15 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of +2.4% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +1.4% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number (positive reactor). The average price reaction is consistent (positive) through thirty trading days.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
In the comparable quarter last year, the company reported earnings three cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 1.6% gain in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings in-line with the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 1.0% gain in five trading days. Historical data indicates the stock sees a short term positive reaction when reporting earnings.
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Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report.