As I explained in my article "ChannelAdvisor Numbers Imply Weak Q1 2013 Revenue For Amazon.com," Amazon.com's (AMZN) revenues for Q1 2012 were, as implied by ChannelAdvisor's January 2013 numbers, tracking below consensus.
Today we got a fresh batch of ChannelAdvisor numbers for February 2013. For Amazon.com, they read as follows:
Amazon - In February, Amazon came in at 30.8%. When you compare that to January's 34.3%, and normalize/account for leap year (30.8%+4%=34.8%), it's actually a bit higher than January's pace.
Now, even ignoring that consensus estimates already take into account leap year effects, what do these numbers mean? For Q4 2012, ChannelAdvisor reported an average growth rate of 38.5%. As for Q1 2013, as of February 2013, Amazon.com is now on track towards a 34.6% growth rate taking into account the leap year effect, or 32.6% without it.
This is significant, because ChannelAdvisor's Q4 2012 growth rate translated into Amazon.com growing its revenues 22% year-on-year. Now, with ChannelAdvisor's numbers tracking 3.9%-5.9% lower than the growth rates exhibited in Q4 2012, it stands to reason that Amazon.com's revenue growth will be significantly lower than the 22% it showed in Q4 2012. The problem, however, is that the consensus revenue growth rate for Q1 2013 stands at 22.6% and so is actually marginally higher than what Amazon.com achieved in Q4 2012.
At this moment, the ChannelAdvisor data on Amazon.com implies that Amazon.com continues to track well below consensus revenue expectations for Q1 2013. Additionally, one could add that with Q2 2013 presenting even more aggressive growth estimates (presently at 24.4% year-on-year), it's likely that not only is Amazon.com on track to miss revenue expectations, but it's also on track to guide next quarter lower as well.
Disclosure: I am short AMZN.