What's Been Moving Oil Prices?

Oil prices have risen $12.20 (34%) within this time frame:

March 18th (Wednesday) - Oil falls $1.02 to $48.14 a barrel

The reason: Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that gasoline inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels. Analysts expected a drop of 2.1 million barrels.

March 17th (Tuesday) - Oil rises $1.81 to 49.16 a barrel

The reason: Government data showed that the number of housing starts surprisingly jumped by 22 percent in February, the largest percentage rise since January 1990.

March 16th (Monday) - Oil jumps $1.10 to $47.35 a barrel

The reason: In an interview with "60 Minutes", Ben Bernanke said that "we'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year." This optimism overshadowed OPEC's decision to keep output unchanged.

March 13th (Friday) - Oil falls 78 cents to $46.25 a barrel

The reason: An OPEC report showed world oil demand contracting faster than expected.

March 12th (Thursday) - Oil surges $4.70 to $47.03 a barrel

The reason: Oil rose on better than expected U.S. retail sales data and in anticipation of OPEC's meeting this Sunday.

March 11th (Wednesday) - Oil plunges $3.38 to $42.33 a barrel

The reason: U.S. crude inventories surprisingly increased 700,000 barrels for the week ended March 6th as analysts had expected a drop of 1 million barrels.

March 10th (Tuesday) - Oil drops $1.36 to $45.71 a barrel

The reason: The U.S. Energy Department cut its world oil demand forecast for 2009.

March 9th (Monday) - Oil gains $1.55 to $47.07 a barrel

The reason: Oil hit a two-month high today on speculation that OPEC will cut more production when it meets this Sunday.

March 6th (Friday) - Oil jumps $1.91 to $45.52 a barrel

The reason: The dollar fell against the euro, making oil more attractive to foreign investors, as the U.S. unemployment rate jumped to its highest level in 26 years.

March 5th (Thursday) - Oil drops $1.77 to $43.61 a barrel

The reason: Oil prices followed the U.S. stock market lower as the Dow ended at a new 12-year low. Support also came after China announced it will not add to its $586 billion stimulus package.

March 4th (Wednesday) - Oil soars $3.73 to $45.38 a barrel

The reason: The EIA report revealed a 700,000 barrel drop in crude inventories for the week ended Feb. 27th. Analysts had expected crude stocks to rise 2.2 million barrels. Additional support came from speculation that China will soon announce a hefty stimulus package.

March 3rd (Tuesday) - Oil rises $1.50 to $41.65 a barrel

The reason: Oil prices rose despite more gloomy U.S. economic data after an oil pipeline operated by Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) in Nigeria exploded. Analysts expect tomorrow's EIA report to show a 2.2 million barrel rise in crude inventories and a 600,000 barrel drop in gasoline inventories.

March 2nd (Monday) - Oil plunges $4.61 to $40.15 a barrel
The reason: Oil prices declined sharply on demand worries as the Dow dropped below the 7000 mark for the first time since 1997. In addition, the US Commerce Department reported that construction spending in January fell to a four-year low.

February 27th (Friday) - Oil slips 46 cents to $44.76 a barrel
The reason: U.S. GDP for the last quarter of 2008 was downwardly-revised from -3.8% to -6.2%.

February 26th (Thursday) - Oil surges $2.72 to $45.22 a barrel
The reason: The main oil supplier of the United Arab Emirates unexpectedly announced that it will cut 15%-17% of its April crude supplies to Asia. Support also came from yesterday's EIA report which showed U.S. gasoline demand rising.

February 25th (Wednesday) - Oil rises $2.54 to $42.50 a barrel
The reason: The EIA report revealed that gasoline inventories unexpectedly dropped 3.4 million barrels and that crude inventories only rose 700,000 barrels. Analysts had expected gasoline inventories to fall 100,000 barrels and crude inventories to rise 2 million barrels.

February 24th (Tuesday) - Oil jumps $1.52 to $39.96 a barrel
The reason: Oil followed US stocks higher after Ben Bernanke told Congress that the nationalization of banks is unlikely and that the "severe" recession could end this year. The 25th will be dictated by the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report as analysts expect crude inventories to rise 2 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 20.

February 23rd (Monday) - Oil slides $1.59 to $38.44
The reason: Oil followed the tumbling U.S. stock market today despite a warning that OPEC will likely cut output when members meet next month on March 15th.

February 20th (Friday) - Oil falls 54 cents to $38.94 a barrel
The reason: Pessimism in the stock market spilled over into oil.

February 19th (Thursday) - Oil surges $4.86 to $39.48 a barrel
The reason: The weekly EIA report revealed a surprising drop in U.S. crude inventories. Inventories fell for the first time this year, declining 138,000 barrels. Analysts expected an increase of 1.8 million barrels.

February 18th (Wednesday) - Oil drops 31 cents to $34.62 a barrel
The reason: Investors expect the next day's weekly EIA report to show an increase once again in U.S. crude inventories. Analysts estimate an increase of 1.8 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 13.

February 17th (Tuesday) - Oil tumbles $2.58 to $34.93 a barrel
The reason: Gloomy data around the globe continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Japan reported Monday that it is suffering its worst economic downturn in 35 years.

February 13th (Friday) - Oil shoots up $3.53 to $37.51 a barrel
The reason: The House approved Obama's economic stimulus package today as investors hope this can revitalize demand.

February 12th (Thursday) - Oil slips $1.96 to $33.98 a barrel
The reason: Investors are worrying that inventories will continue to increase due to the overall lack of demand. This is the fifth consecutive day oil has been down.

February 11th (Wednesday) - Oil falls $1.62 to $35.94 a barrel
The reason: A weekly report from the Energy Information Administration revealed a larger-than-expected increase in crude inventories for the week ended Feb. 6. Supplies rose 4.7 million barrels which surpassed the average analyst estimate of ~ 3 million. Crude inventories have gained in 18 of the past 20 weeks. Lack of demand much?

Stock position: None.

Comments

[smilingpilgrim:]

This is great overview - keep going!

Thanks a lot!

Mar 19 03:30 PM

[mattupp:]

Perfect, I've been screaming at the ridiculous reasons given for the daily increase/decrease of oil spot prices, and asking someone, anyone, to find out who these "experts" are that expected "only a X number of barrels increase", or "market reacted to the sudden increase in refining capacity". The EIA is either the craftiest agency to hide it's information, or completely clueless as to the supply & demand of oil and derivatives... I'd opt for the latter.

I'm still waiting for the economic reporter who states "Today's oil prices went up due to no good reason that's plainly visible."

Mar 19 04:41 PM

[Rick of Denver:]

As we can see the correlation between the price of crude vs supply and demand is non existent. It is nice to see such a site with this valuable information. Thanks for taking the time to put this together. It would also be nice to see this data hour by hour.


"A cab driver in New York city collided with a tomato truck causing the price of pizza sauce worldwide to triple."

This Site ROCKS!!!

Mar 19 05:50 PM

[john s. gordon:]

this is like watching a ping-pong match.
> jack

Mar 20 08:47 AM

[Ferdinand E...:]

Not only interesting and useful, but impressive. I think that you might be able to get something from my new energy economics textbook: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF WORLD ENERGY: AN INTRODUCTORY TEXTBOOK.

Mar 20 09:38 AM

[DuffBeer:]

Thanks Konard,
Great post easy to follow even for me . Tell me fellow SA followers
surely supply /demand have something to do with price movement ?
Can it be as simple as I am a seller putting out an ask . Here comes Mr buyer with there bid ?
Freddy your are the think tank member here can you give us a little bit of insight with out giving the book away !!!!
Freddy this is the shortest post you have evr made what 's up were you going to tune into Mr Teleprompter on Leno ???
Konard keep them comong you will get a following with work like this .
I hope my beer comsumption does not move oil price to much !
Cheers, DuffBeer

Mar 20 10:38 AM

[Alex Filonov:]

Hot money is moving oil prices. It's hard to find any logic here. I have a feeling that hot money is moving from gold into oil (of course, most hedgies buy and sell futures or ETFs, not a physical commodity).

Mar 20 10:46 AM

[LR European:]

Reasons, schmeasons. More buyers than sellers, the price will rise. Buyers may have seven reasons between them, sellers may have thirty four - it doesn't really matter.... What counts is the traction of particular ideas. So, slowing economy - good reason to sell - but 4 months later, most of the selling for that idea has been done, so selling is weaker even if the economy is slowing more sharlply unless there is a new idea to sell for that gains its own traction.....

Mar 20 03:36 PM

[Bob van der...:]

"Crudomania" is being kept alive by the same entities feeding the media their garbage and the public is by en large eating it. Meanwhile the US petroleum industry is being kept going by the same basics with supply demand factors affecting our gasoline prices more than what the West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices happens to be on a day-to-basis. For that type of intelligence please to my log and web page by googling my name.

Mar 20 03:47 PM