Attention BlackBerry Shorts: See Order Flow To Vendors

| About: BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY)


Speaking of BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY), analyst Paul Peterson with boutique research firm BlueFin this morning writes that it "appears that management is confident that the BB10 launches will be an unqualified success" given order patterns to parts suppliers for the recently introduced Z10 handset, which show a "significant surge in orders in the past 30 days."

"Our checks indicate that some suppliers are seeing 6-month order coverage that is several orders of magnitude larger than the previous 6 months, with some suppliers believing that they can get back to 2011 revenue levels if the present forecast levels hold up."

Several orders of magnitude?! Uh...... really?

Oh boy you folks who are short the stock had better be right -- if the company is actually putting up order numbers that support this and it's not a load of crap, there's a big-time surprise coming -- perhaps not in this quarterly release, but given production lead times the next quarter should be a blowout.

Now it's certainly possible that BlackBerry is going to channel-stuff like a mofo and wind up eating margins in a nasty way if the phone doesn't sell. But given the reports of actual people on the ground coming in from the markets where it has launched thus far (not the so-called "channel checks" that someone's doing from an office 5,000 miles away), I wouldn't take the channel-stuffing bet unless the person offering it was also giving 10:1 odds on it.

Disclosure: Currently long the common although no guarantees I'll be sticking around.