Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) is expected to report fiscal fourth quarter earnings on Thursday, March 14th. The whisper number is $0.11, one cent behind the analysts' estimate. Whispers range from a low of $0.05 to a high of $0.14. KKD has a 47% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 9 of the 17 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 8 qtrs
- Met whisper: 1 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 8 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of -8.6% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +1.5% within five trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number (opposite reactor). The average price reaction is inconsistent through thirty trading days.
The last quarter the company had a whisper number was in August 2012. The company reported earnings in-line with the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 9.4% gain in five trading days. Historical data indicates the stock sees an inconsistent short term price reaction when reporting earnings.
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Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.