The G20 summit of the world’s largest economies does not officially get underway until Thursday, April 2, but there are already signs that the event could be a significant benchmark in the evolution of the economic crisis.
Obama Stands Alone.
It looks to me as if President Obama really stands alone among the world leaders for his unfailing articulation and re-articulation of the views of the middle/working class. He identifies with them by often referring to them as “us.” As opposed to other leaders who voice a concern about the rising anger of the middle/working class, Obama says “I share their anger.” More substantively, Obama is aggressive in his approach to government action both as a financier of one sort or another and a stimulator of growth.
His aggressiveness in this regard puts him at philosophical odds with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who held a joint news conference on March 12, during which Sarkozy said: “We consider that in Europe we have already invested a lot for the recovery, and that the problem is not about spending more, but putting in place a system of regulation so that the economic and financial catastrophe that the world is seeing does not reproduce itself.”
At the same time, British leader Gordon Brown is being seriously challenged by attacks from within his own party. According to an article dated March 24 in The Chronicle, former trade and industry secretary Stephen Byers claims Brown’s G20 summit agenda is too ambitious and that a cut in VAT, which is the centerpiece of Brown’s domestic economic stimulus plan, should be withdrawn. Byers says that April will prove to be “make or break time” for the prime minister with both the outcome of the G20 summit and the budget later in the month likely to be decisive to the government’s chances of re-election. He says the task for Brown is to prove he is governing, and not just surviving in office.
And now this just in from China, as summed up in a headline of a March 24 story by the BBC: “China has increased the pressure on world leaders just days before the G20 world summit by calling for an overhaul of the global financial system.” Oh. The BBC quotes Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING Financial Markets in Singapore: “China is holding all the cards - and it knows that.”
Meanwhile, the TimesOnline focuses attention on Russia’s agenda with the U.S. in a March 20 story with this headline: “G20 summit: Crisis of capitalism is a recipe for misunderstanding with Russia.” The premise of the story is that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev will use the G20 summit to position Russia relative to the U.S. and Europe, playing it nice because Russia is an active participant in the global economic crisis and needs friends, but it also sees an opportunity to assert the failure of capitalism and be more adversarial.
Obama comes into this setting with strong support from the U.S. electorate, regardless of his support from pundits and politicians of all stripes. He is coming in as the single world leader who isn’t contending with massive protests. Among them all, he is the most charismatic and most attractive to broad populations, especially the middle/working class who happen to be actively engaged in protests against their own governments as they vent their anger at the economic crisis. I have documented the surge in economic protests before. In the few days since then, my premise has been strengthened by events around the world including a nationwide protest in France on March 19 that Reuters reported to be three million strong.
The Critical Question: How Will The Global Media Treat Obama?
If the world’s attention wasn’t going to be drawn to London because of the economic issues that will be addressed there, it will be attracted for a number of other reasons, ranging from a meeting between the Obamas and Queen Elizabeth, and a series of protests from all sorts of groups with all sorts of agendas. The list of protests is too long to include here, but The Guardian has compiled a directory of the protests and who appear to be behind them.
So on this world stage, Barack Obama will stand side-by-side with other leaders who are dealing with their own agendas and political pressures. Will he come out of this meeting elevated as a more global leader? And if so, how might that shape his domestic agenda in the U.S.? Will he begin to accumulate political support outside the U.S.? My guess is that he will, but perhaps not so much with leaders as with general populations. That type of support is familiar to him because that seems to be the type of support he has at home, and the support he is cultivating.
If that occurs, we can expect a non-stop pedal-to-the-metal approach with the balance of his agenda, including major reforms of healthcare, energy policy, and new regulation of industry. Make your bets accordingly.
