Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

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That was an incredible last five minute price spike, wasn’t it? Who has the power to make such a move I wonder? Surely Da Boyz can do that and even our manipulative Treasury and Fed. But, we’ll never know.

Da Boyz Club is an impressive group. I should just give this effort up and throw myself prostrate at the feet of James Simons and friends, pleading to join the game and pledge their club. I’m just not enough of a hard ass probably.

Tomorrow we get more Fed speak with Dennis Lockhart and then Turbo-Tim gets a short. There is a little thing called the GDP and then Jobless Claims but that will be set aside as “old news” in this environment. The bulls have grabbed the tape and won’t let go, especially with the end of month near.

Let’s see what happens.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in GLD, DGP, DBP, DBB, DBC and USL.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward.

Comments

[CautiousInv...:]

Boy yesterday was a trip...........and it was either programmed trading or the Boyz.

The cozy realtionship between the administration and the Boyz or Plummet Protection Force may become strained as Timmy wants to place hedge funds and private equity groups under federal supervision to better control financial risk and derivatives trading.

The administration’s framework would make it mandatory for large hedge funds, private-equity firms and venture-capital funds to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission, subjecting them to new disclosure requirements and inspections by the agency’s staff.

Mar 26 06:57 AM

[karbonkredit:]

I think a lot of yesterdays action was a fight over financials, filling a gap on 60 min chart FAS, trying to move up to a gap in FAZ. Oh, really enjoy your work, David.

Mar 26 07:17 AM

[Dr. O:]

Given the TRILLIONS of dollars in spending here in the US, combined with lessor amounts in China, Europe, etc., one wonders if just a bit of that money has been allocated to buy index futures to prop up asset prices.

If you were a member of "the boyz" club, and had close political contacts, would you know that the Government had your back going long now, just as you could have known the Government was prepared not to intervene in stock market free fall last year?

Is knowledge of what the Government wants or is indifferent to in the financial markets (currency, stock, bond, etc.) the way the same well-connected players make fortunes year after year?

Mar 26 07:18 AM

[EMS:]

Yes Doc.


On Mar 26 07:18 AM Dr. O wrote:

> Given the TRILLIONS of dollars in spending here in the US, combined
> with lessor amounts in China, Europe, etc., one wonders if just a
> bit of that money has been allocated to buy index futures to prop
> up asset prices.
>
> If you were a member of "the boyz" club, and had close political
> contacts, would you know that the Government had your back going
> long now, just as you could have known the Government was prepared
> not to intervene in stock market free fall last year?
>
> Is knowledge of what the Government wants or is indifferent to in
> the financial markets (currency, stock, bond, etc.) the way the same
> well-connected players make fortunes year after year?

Mar 26 07:45 AM

[prudentinve...:]

Yes, David, I am beginning to believe in the existence of "Da Boyz". They must have friends in high places, otherwise the latest toxic asset relief plan would not have been engineered to guarantee them profits. For paper work reduction, perhaps they should just give us the address in Greenwich, CT to mail our tax checks to.

Anyway, back to the markets. Once we accept "Da Boyz" theory, we just need to piggy back on their shennanigans to make some profits too, so we can afford to pay them our taxes. Since they don't tell us what they're up to, we just have to treat it as one more facet of the market's psychology. Personally, I've been taking profits slowly but surely during their spikes, and expect at some point, perhaps next week, perhaps next month or in May, they will own more overpriced stocks than they wish to keep and will start a selling spree (to the chagrin of their govt buddies).

Mar 26 08:11 AM

[schlumpf:]

good work David, thanks

Mar 26 10:21 AM

[sheople:]

Oh, I think we pretty much "know".

Mar 26 10:24 AM

[Mark Bern:]

I suspect that "Da Boyz" have always existed. Jealousy brought too many wannabees into the hedge fund business over the past decade and things got a little messy. The wannabees are getting tested or hung out to dry by those in the know. If you are not properly connected you are not going to survive.

The club will always be highly secretive and relatively small, but their reach is being ever extended. I suspect that the rules to regulate this group will be watered down but sold to the public as transparent and we'll never know the difference.

Could it be that future members of the club are serving their country in government positions now? Boy this all seems so scandalously conspiratorial! It is hard to consider the possibility, but then again, where there are $ Billion to be made...

Mar 26 10:51 AM

[sethbru:]

Your best commentary yet - keep up the good work!

Mar 26 10:59 AM

[frank90291:]

A terrific article !!
One thing for sure, the charts don't lie........... I use a 120 week SMA for GLD.......... got out at 74 and back in at 75 and am a happy camper............. GLD and IEF is all I have............. 95% of ppl have no reason to be in this highly volatile market......... this market is purely "pump and dump"......... believe it !!

Mar 26 11:31 AM

[sboardemc:]

i completely agree on the inverse H&S.

Mar 26 04:14 PM

[carey_jim:]

There's no need to regulate the market.

If you're right, Da boyz are already regulating it.

Mar 27 01:29 AM

[ptgkc:]

A+ today. Not only great charts and a few running jokes (we need them), but poetry in the prelude. Just keep on pressing that altruistic quest, even if it doesn't quite get you to the Cayman Islands . You've earned the Don Quixote seal of approval. Da Boyz are the modern day wind mills that we tilt against at our own pearl. Let's all hope for a better outcome.

Mar 27 02:15 AM