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Executives

Vivek Ranadivé – Chairman and CEO

Murray Rode – COO

Sydney Carey – EVP and CFO

Analysts

John DiFucci – JPMorgan Securities Inc.

Derek Bingham – Goldman Sachs

Yun Kim – Broadpoint Amtech

Brian Schwartz – Piper Jaffray

Tim Klasell – Thomas Weisel Partners

David Hilal – FBR

TIBCO Software Inc. (TIBX) Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript March 26, 2009 4:30 PM ET

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I’m Chad. Welcome to TIBCO’s first quarter 2009 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. You can also listen to this call via the Internet at www.tibco.com.

Today’s call is being recorded and will be available for playback from TIBCO Software’s website at tibco.com. In addition, replay will be available through Premier Global Services for one month following today’s call by dialing 888-203-1112 from the US or 719-457-0820 internationally. The confirmation code is 2014411.

The following conference call includes forward-looking statements, which represent TIBCO Software’s outlook and guidance only as of today and which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, forecasts of revenues, operating margins, operating expenses, operating shares, and earnings per share for future periods.

Our actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are discussed in the Risk Factors section of TIBCO’s most recent reports on forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. TIBCO assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements included in this call whether as a result of new development or otherwise.

The conference call also includes certain financial information that has not been prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, as we believe that such information is useful for understanding our financial condition and results of operations. For a presentation of the most directly comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP and a reconciliation of the differences between non-GAAP and GAAP financial information, please see our website at tibco.com.

The participants on the call are Vivek Ranadivé, TIBCO’s Chairman and CEO; Chief Operating Officer, Murray Rode; and Chief Financial Officer, Sydney Carey. I’d now like to turn the call over to Vivek. Please go ahead.

Vivek Ranadivé

Murray and Sydney to discuss details. Overall, we had a solid quarter despite both a weak macroeconomic environment as well as our usual Q1 seasonality. Today, our total revenue for the quarter was $132.9 million. License revenue was $44.8 million. Non-GAAP operating margin was 16% versus 13% a year ago. And fully taxed non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter were $0.09 versus $0.07 a year ago.

Having completed our first quarter of fiscal 2009, several things stand out to me. First, we’re clearly the gold standard in infrastructure software. Leading companies continue to rely on us as the foundation for mission-critical systems, helping them both save IT cost and drive new revenue. Second, we continue to see an important shift through in-memory high-performance computing systems. This shift is happening quietly, but pervasively throughout the corporate world despite the macroeconomic issues. And it’s happening because it allows a leaner, faster, and more agile IT architecture.

Lastly, the emergence of the cloud computing model heralds a new emphasis on infrastructure as the increasingly important foundation for deploying services, integrating systems, and automating business processes across platforms and public and private clouds. Cloud computing is extending the use of services and virtualized processing power, all of which require a technology like ours for the practical management and deployment of services within and between clouds.

The evidence suggests a clear move towards what I call enterprise 3.0 or a world where event-driven applications are built from infrastructure. For companies looking to exploit this shift and partner with a leader, TIBCO is the clear choice. In just the past 12 months where we’ve been in the eye of the storm, we’ve done more than 50 deals over a million, some of which were in distressed industries such as financial services and airlines.

So during the recent period of economic uncertainty, we have demonstrated that we can control our business, expand our capacity, and further build upon our world-class infrastructure software platform. We continue to be focused on increasing profits and protecting shareholder returns.

Now I will turn it over to Murray. Murray?

Murray Rode

Thanks, Vivek. I’ll go over some of our key operating metrics for the quarter and provide an update on our priorities for the year. While we fell about 5% short of our guided range on revenue for the quarter, we were able to deliver a much higher operating margin of 16.5% for the period and EPS of $0.09, demonstrating a gain that we are focusing on delivering profits in this type of environment. Our Q1 is always seasonally challenging, but we believe the environment of the past three months certainly played a role in the timing and funding of a variety of deals. And this obviously showed up in our revenue performance.

On a year-over-year basis, revenue declined by 9%, but only about 4% to 5% on a constant currency basis, while operating income increased by 16% or about 5% to 6% on a constant currency basis. In terms of deal activity, we had 11 deals over $1 million in license versus 14 a year ago. At 595,000, the average deal size for transactions over $100,000 remained fairly consistent with Q1 of last year and Q4 as well. New license customers numbered 49 in the quarter, which is up from 30 a year ago.

From a geographic perspective, total revenue was as follows

Americas 53%; Europe, Middle East and Africa 39%; and Asia Pacific 8%. Our European division was clearly the strongest performer this quarter actually showing up revenues on a constant currency basis.

From a vertical market perspective, total revenue was as follows

Financial services 19%, telecommunications 16%, government 11%, transportation and logistics 7%, energy 7%, and life sciences 7%. No other vertical was 5% or greater, although both media and insurance had particularly good quarters. We continue to see further diversification in our business from a vertical market perspective. Year-over-year there was a shift away from financial services with new growth in government, media, transportation and logistics, and telco.

Some key customer wins in the quarter include Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Guitar Center, International Flavors and Fragrances, The Nielsen Company, State Compensation Insurance Fund of California, UBS, United Airlines, and Wyndham Hotels and Resorts. From a product perspective, the breakdown of license revenue among our major product families was as follows

SOA 64%, business optimization 21%, and BPM 15%.

Looking forward, we see a strengthening pipeline and stabilizing budgets at most customers. With the 11 deals in Q1 at or above $1 million and many of those being multi-million dollar deals, we feel confident about the fundamental level of demand with the complicating factor being the timing for deals to be approved and closed.

Looking into the rest of the year, areas of focus for us will include; one, carefully controlling spending across the board; two, leveraging our full sales and services capacity; three, continuing to build upon our platform with a strong upcoming product cycle; four, cultivating deeper relationships with our blue chip customer base; and five, selectively evaluating acquisition possibilities. I should say in this regard, we are disciplined buyers and want transactions that can be quickly accretive to earnings.

Now I’ll turn it over to Sydney for the full Q1 details.

Sydney Carey

Thank you, Murray. First I will provide additional details on our financial performance in Q1 and then I will talk about our financial outlook for Q2. I review our financials on both a GAAP and a non-GAAP basis. A full reconciliation was included with our press release along with an explanation of our non-GAAP measures.

Some key performance data on our first quarter results are as follows. Total revenue was $132.9 million, down 9% year-over-year. License revenue was $44.8 million, down 22% year-over-year. Services revenue was $88 million, essentially flat with last year. We did see a sequential decrease in professional services and training revenue in Q1, as projects were slower to begin than in past year. However, maintenance revenues remained strong in the period. Based on our Q1 maintenance renewal experience, we continue to expect renewal rates to remain in the range of 90% to 95%.

Non-GAAP gross margins were 75%, up from 74% last year. Non-GAAP operating income was $21.9 million, up $3 million or 16% from the same period a year ago. This resulted in operating margin at 16.5% versus 13.0%. In Q1, we continued to carefully manage our expenses and profitability. Our expense reductions included salary-related costs, restricted hiring, and some seasonally lower contractor expenses, and travel, meeting, and marketing program costs.

Non-GAAP EPS was $0.09 versus $0.07 a year ago. The non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 32%. Murray gave some constant currency equivalents for revenue and earnings. Now let me specifically call out the FX impact on the period. We believe that on a year-over-year basis, total revenue was negatively impacted by 4% to 5%, with our professional services component to our overall services revenue line marginally more impacted at a rate of 5% to 6%. Earnings had an FX benefit of approximately 10%.

Turning to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with approximately $293 million in cash and short-term investments. DSOs came in at 72 days as compared to 70 days in Q1 last year. Deferred revenue, including both long and short-term components, totaled $158 million. This is an increase of 6% from Q1 of last year. Q1 cash flow from operations totaled $29 million.

Now turning to our outlook for the business. We still consider the environment to have limited visibility, so we’re providing guidance only for Q2 at this point in time. We will also continue to take a conservative view and assume lower than normal close rates for deals even though we are encouraged by a strengthening pipeline.

For Q2 2009, our outlook is as follows. We expect total revenue to be in the range of $138 million to $143 million. We expect license revenue to range between $50 million and $54 million. The non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be between 16% and 17%. Non-GAAP EPS for the quarter should range between $0.08 and $0.09, with an assumed tax rate of 32%. GAAP EPS should range from $0.03 to $0.04 with an assumed tax rate of 31% to 33%.

We expect cash flow from operations to range from $17 million to $20 million. The guidance suggests a year-over-year decline in total revenue of approximately 5% to 8%. However, even with this decline, we are estimating non-GAAP operating income that is up more than 25%. Our revenue outlook also assumes an FX headwind of approximately 5% to 7%.

With that, we’ll be happy to take your questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator instructions) And first we’ll go to John DiFucci.

John DiFucci – JPMorgan Securities Inc.

Thank you. A couple of questions. First for Sydney, you said that renewal rates for maintenance, your expectation that they are going to remain 90% to 95%, which sounds great. But can you specifically tell us did maintenance – because you bundle it in with services when you first report. Did maintenance grow year-over-year? And what did it do sequentially?

Sydney Carey

Maintenance did grow year-over-year and it also grew sequentially on the period.

John DiFucci – JPMorgan Securities Inc.

Okay, great. And then, Murray, in your commentary, a couple of things you said and Sydney repeated about strengthening pipeline looking forward. And then also you mentioned a strong upcoming product cycle. I just wondered if you can just give us a little more, I don’t know, color around that pipeline. It’s just interesting to hear something strengthening. Are you seeing something? I know it’s the first month of the quarter, but you’re almost done with that. Are you seeing something out there in the field or is it just the consistent business that you see on a regular basis? And then if you could tell us a little bit about – or maybe, Vivek, about that upcoming product cycle.

Vivek Ranadivé

Yes. This is Vivek. We have seen a marked improvement from January, February, going into March in terms of bigger deals, what we’re seeing from customers, just the strength of the pipeline. So we see a definite uptick from the first couple of months of the year. And we are seeing the return of big deals. We are seeing many customers who curtailed off. So I don’t know, Murray, if you want to add anything to that, but –

Murray Rode

I think, as Vivek says, it’s both – deal size, quality, and number of deals and quantity of deals. And I think the other thing that changed in March is budgets did really start to stabilize. I think there was a bit of a – it was a little bit of a slow start for the year in terms of companies seeming to get settled with what their budgets were going to be and that has settled out more in March. So again, quality, quantity, and size of the deals in the pipeline.

From a product perspective, looking out into the year, it’s really across the board. If you look at our major product lines, you look at SOA. There is a variety of new releases focusing on both performance, deployment capabilities in the ActiveMatrix product line. BPM has a pretty big year in terms of new releases. Spotfire and BusinessEvents both have major new releases during the year. So we think that all helps us well in terms of what we’re going to sell through the course of the year.

John DiFucci – JPMorgan Securities Inc.

Okay, thanks. Just a follow-up to the commentary about the pipeline and the deal size, were there any deals this quarter that were greater than normal, any 10% deals in this quarter?

Murray Rode

No, this quarter we actually had – we actually had a pretty good mix of deals. There were a variety of multi-million dollar deals, but no, call them, mega deals. Nothing really large.

John DiFucci – JPMorgan Securities Inc.

Okay, great. Nice job, guys. Thanks.

Murray Rode

Thank you.

Operator

And moving on, we go to Derek Bingham.

Derek Bingham – Goldman Sachs

Hi, gentlemen. My first question, Murray, was also on another comment you made about leveraging the full sales and service capacity, could you just give a little more detail on what do you mean by that too?

Murray Rode

Sure. I think – first of all, sort of starting in reverse with services, I think in Sydney’s commentary, she mentioned that services was down a little more than we would expect in Q1 from Q4. And part of that was, we think, the normal seasonality for the period, exaggerated by the macro environment projects were just a bit slower to get started. So we are very focused on utilization in the services organization in making sure that we are fully utilized and then also focusing on just the services business on its own and driving the services business in terms of growth.

From a sales capacity perspective, we, as Vivek mentioned, have actually expanded our sales capacity over the last, say, a year or so. And we’re also very focused on doing what we can to ensure we’re using that capacity as best we can. And that means sales enablement. That means focus on our lead gen activities. That means looking very closely on how various regions are performing and where more capacity can be deployed and that sort of thing.

Vivek Ranadivé

Yes. I think, Derek, one of the points we were making earlier is that over the last 12 months we’ve succeeded in actually increasing our sales capacity. And we think that as things – as the market turns and as these people come up to speed, there will be good leverage in that. And to an earlier question, we’re now deploying where we also have the strongest product cycle we’ve ever had. So if you combine that with the increased sales capacity and – you know, we’re starting to see March as a better month than the previous two months.

Derek Bingham – Goldman Sachs

Could you give us a sense of where headcount ended February and then where you expect it to go from here?

Murray Rode

On quarter heads, you mean, Derek?

Derek Bingham – Goldman Sachs

Yes, I guess both really, both quarter and total for the firm?

Murray Rode

Yes. So, quarter heads were down a little bit from Q4 at 171. And I think the range we like is we would like to keep it more in the high 170s, 180 through the course of the year. And then in terms of total headcount, we finished the quarter with about 2,010 total headcount.

Derek Bingham – Goldman Sachs

Got it. And then going forward, I mean, is there a stable number or is that something – how should that trend?

Murray Rode

Well, I think for now that’s a pretty stable number. They might be a little bit in the way of additions because we had a pretty low – we did have a pretty low number in Q1, but essentially it’s a stable number.

Derek Bingham – Goldman Sachs

Okay. Great. Great job. Thank you.

Murray Rode

Thank you.

Operator

And next we’ll go to Yun Kim with Broadpoint Amtech.

Yun Kim – Broadpoint Amtech

Thank you. Can you just talk about what you’re seeing in your financial services vertical? Obviously, you guys performed pretty decently there. How had that trend – what's been the trend in that vertical? What were some other trends that happened changed during the quarter and what are you expecting out of that vertical going forward?

Murray Rode

Well, we – quite frankly, we didn’t expect a lot out of financial services. I think that it’s clearly been a – for new license revenue, that’s been a slower industry for obvious reasons. So it performed, I think, pretty much as we expected. I think the interesting related [ph] point from a vertical market perspective is that while we’ve seen financial services trail off, we’ve seen some very good growth in verticals like governments and even the telecommunications, which is normally a strong vertical – for us was particularly strong in the quarter. So, government, telco, media, transportation and logistics, all had good new growth.

Vivek Ranadivé

But even within financial services, the sectors – we think we will continue to see business even in the hardest hit sectors of the capital markets. So there are SOA offerings continue. People are moving to an internal cloud, enterprise cloud. And even in this time, they are continuing to make investments in that. So we see a lot of opportunities with that. And we see a lot of opportunities in insurance. BPM is driving that. And we have some real good examples of success in that case. And so we see a lot of that. And then we are starting to see more and more opportunities on the retail side with up-sell, cross-sell using our BusinessEvents, predictive technologies for inbound marketing. So, even within financial services, there is quite a bit of opportunity for us.

Yun Kim – Broadpoint Amtech

And can you just talk about what you’re seeing in the telco side of the business where you had a pretty good pop in Q1? Do you see that vertical continue to perform well for the rest of the year or do you see just (inaudible) again on a –?

Vivek Ranadivé

We are starting to see again people are focusing – you know, it’s interesting because people have two things they are focused on, whether it’s telco or it’s financial services or it’s retail or airlines. They want to use IT to cut cost, but now they are also kind of saying they want to use IT to increase revenue. They can up-sell, cross-sell customers and they can improve customer service. And so we’re starting to see the telcos going back into that cycle. So we expect there will be continued opportunities with that for the foreseeable future.

Yun Kim – Broadpoint Amtech

Great. And then just a question regarding the overall environment around the ELA renewals. Are customers delaying their renewals, whether they postpone some of the IT initiatives? Also if you can talk about maybe pricing trends that you’re seeing along the ELA renewals?

Vivek Ranadivé

What we’re seeing is that even in very, very distressed industries, even with [ph] a ELA renewal, people are having to do it.

Yun Kim – Broadpoint Amtech

Okay. And the last question that I have is, how much of your cost structure is depending on the Indian rupees, because obviously I’m assuming that helped you guys a little bit in the quarter? Just wanted to kind of get some qualitative assessment of how much of the cost structure is based on Indian rupees.

Sydney Carey

We don’t have a significant amount of our cost structure depending on the rupee.

Yun Kim – Broadpoint Amtech

Okay, all right. That’s it. Thank you very much.

Murray Rode

Thank you.

Operator

And next we go to Mark Murphy with Piper Jaffray.

Brian Schwartz – Piper Jaffray

Yes. Hi, this is Brian Schwartz filling in for Mark Murphy. Murray, why don’t I ask you a question, it looks like you’re two quarters in a row now you guys are getting good performance out of Europe and actually hearing opposite commentary from a lot of other software companies that Europe is essentially dead. I’m wondering if you could give us a little more color, maybe what regions over there in Europe that you’re seeing some strength.

Murray Rode

Well, it’s actually pretty diverse for our business. I think the – in some ways, maybe the more interesting thing is the industries that are driving business in Europe. Telco and government have been particularly strong. Vivek mentioned financial services generally. Financial services has actually been pretty good in Europe for us as well. So it hasn’t been driven by any particular region. It’s been pretty diverse. And overall, we’ve been quite pleased with how it has performed across the board.

Vivek Ranadivé

Yes. We expect – we're seeing continuous signs of that.

Brian Schwartz – Piper Jaffray

Great. And then, Murray, why don’t I ask you just a question if there has been any change here on the competitive front? Are you seeing any increased competition here from Oracle, the DA [ph], Fusion, or even Red Hat, and any new engagement since then?

Vivek Ranadivé

This is Vivek. IBM continues to be our most formidable competitor. There was actually – Oracle six months ago was more of a competitor. So if anything, that star has faded a little. I think when they were out first in the market, then everyone gets a free pass for some period of time when you say you’ve entered the market. That seems to have worn off. So we’re not – Red Hat, we’ve never seen – I've never seen them. We don’t do them competitively at all. Oracle, yes, we do, but it’s mostly IBM.

Brian Schwartz – Piper Jaffray

Okay. And then last question is one for Sydney here, just a couple of housekeeping questions too. Just wanted to see what the percentage of revenue was from you top ten customers and then also wanted to see if you repurchased any shares here in the quarter.

Sydney Carey

We did not repurchase any shares in the quarter. And looking for top ten –

Murray Rode

It was very consistent with past quarters in the kind of low 20% range.

Brian Schwartz – Piper Jaffray

That’s great. That’s helpful. Thank you for taking my questions today.

Operator

And moving on, we’ll go to Tim Klasell with Thomas Weisel Partners.

Tim Klasell – Thomas Weisel Partners

Yes. Good afternoon, everybody. Quick question on – first on the products that – were there any significant Appliance sales in the quarter or how is that product doing in the market?

Murray Rode

There is – Tim, there is a lot of interest and a lot of kind of active sales cycles going on. There was not a major sale in the quarter. We were I’d say with the Appliance launched slowed down a little bit by a lot of the originally planned focus being financial services. But we are seeing interest in a range of verticals. And as I say, good activity and a lot of engagement, and we continue to think not just that Appliance, but the appliance market could be an interesting one for us over time.

Tim Klasell – Thomas Weisel Partners

Okay, good. And then you guys did really good on the cost controls. And you mentioned sort of during the call maybe cutting back on traveling and salaries. They were the two I want to focus in on. If indeed we are – the world is getting better out there, broadly speaking, will some of those expenses have to come back or you can risk losing either employees if you compensate less on travel? Is that something we should be thinking about?

Vivek Ranadivé

No, we – we're managing very tightly based on what the future looks like. And what we do is we have bonus programs. And so we felt that if we manage to keep our fixed cost down and made – if things turned out to be better, then we could make that up through other avenues. And so we plan on being – continuing to be tight with the cost.

Tim Klasell – Thomas Weisel Partners

Okay. So there is sort of a more repairable comp that we should be factoring into our models going forward?

Murray Rode

I think that’s – Tim, I don’t think it’s anything really new for us. I think really the point Vivek is making is that, if generally we’re improving our cost structure and improving our profitability, it makes it that much easier for us to fund and accommodate our performance-based compensation.

Tim Klasell – Thomas Weisel Partners

Okay, great. And then one final question probably for Sydney. You gave the guided impacts on currency and the top line. How about on the operating margin?

Sydney Carey

It’s about 6% to 7%.

Tim Klasell – Thomas Weisel Partners

Positive?

Sydney Carey

Yes.

Tim Klasell – Thomas Weisel Partners

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

And next we’ll go to David Hilal with FBR.

David Hilal – FBR

Great, thank you. I wanted to follow up on the share repurchase. So when I look back over the last, like, four years you’ve always bought back stock, except the quarter you bought Staffware. So I found that you didn’t buy back any stock, which is probably at four year lows. So I want to understand the rationale for not buying back stock this quarter.

Murray Rode

Well, I think it was a couple of factors. One, this was a particularly uncertain period of time. So that made us a little bit more cautious in terms of what we did with our capital. And two, I think we were more focused on – quite frankly, more focused on M&A opportunities in the quarter. So it was at least for this quarter keeping our powder dry.

David Hilal – FBR

Okay. And on the M&A front, from potential buyers like yourself, they kind of feel it’s a buyers’ market. But for potential sellers, the feedback we get is it’s not a sellers’ market because of the valuation. And so, to the extent you’ve had any early conversations with potential sellers, what is your mindset on valuation? Are they open to being acquired or are they hunkering down and going to push back?

Vivek Ranadivé

No, we’re seeing a lot of opportunities, really good opportunities for ourselves. And that’s why we – as Murray said, we chose to keep our powder dry. Customers want us to feel that kind of, I call it, the wide space in between the application and the operating system. And that’s a growing wide space. And so there are a lot of companies that fall into that just can’t make it as standalone companies. And we’re seeing some good opportunities in that regard.

David Hilal – FBR

Yes, I mean, I’m sure they are out there. I guess, Vivek, are they open and willing to being acquired at maybe valuations that were lower than they thought a year ago? I guess that’s where I’m going with [ph] my question. I’m sure there’s good stuff out there for you.

Vivek Ranadivé

What we are finding is they are more open than they were six months ago. And they seem to get more open every week. But they are sufficiently open that we think there are actionable opportunities out there right now.

David Hilal – FBR

Okay. And then finally, I guess I have to run the numbers on your guidance, but cost cuts, and you guys obviously did a great job there. Is there more discretionary cost that can be taken out of the system without cutting bodies, or do you think the cost structure is kind of plateaued and maybe it’s flat to up as opposed to continuing to trend down?

Murray Rode

Well, I think that’s actually kind of an open-ended question. I think the – our view is that we’ve been doing a pretty good job of managing discretionary costs to the activity in the quarter. So I think you’re always going to see a little bit of variation. If you have more activity, you’re going to get a little bit more travel cost, et cetera. But we want to keep that very focused. I think given our outlook, I think if you look at the numbers in the guidance, we are trying to be – you know, we’re trying to be pretty consistent as we go through the year. We are giving ourselves a little bit of room to invest a little bit where it makes sense, but generally we’re going to run a very tight ship.

Vivek Ranadivé

Yes. But I think that being said, we also feel that in terms of our sales capacity, that’s good as it has ever been. And in terms of the product investments we’ve made and where we sit with our products today, never been better. So we feel that we’ve chosen that right balance where as things start improving, we have both the product and the sales capacity to take advantage of the improving environment.

David Hilal – FBR

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, that’s all the time we have for questions. Mr. Ranadivé, I’ll now turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.

Vivek Ranadivé

Okay. Well, thank you. We will conclude this call. And thanks, everyone, for joining us. Good bye.

Operator

And thank you again for joining us. We will now conclude TIBCO’s Q1 2009 earnings call.

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