The Green Re-cession: Via Demand Shock

A lot of people try to guess at true Chinese GDP using Electricity consumption as a proxy. Here is a little review of estimated US energy usage through since 1930. I can't vouch for the source Wattzon or data integrity, but it really makes one think about firms in the peak energy management business like Enernoc (ENOC) or grid pressure relief systems. I wish the graph below were semi-log to more clearly highlight to 1930's decline.

I found the chart in Paul Kedrosky's mention of an energy conference presentation.

Carbon credits, utilities etc. and anyone used to steady state energy consumption growth is probably in for a bit of a shock. Smart metering, behavioral changes and other end point and grid efficiency gains will only exacerbate this shock for energy producers and their respective supply chains, railroads etc.

Disclosure: No positions

Comments

[Ferdinand E...:]

I really wish that I knew what this note was all about, but in any case I hope that the new energy minister and his underbosses take a good look at it. If it means that US energy consumption is going to continue to escalate, I hope that some new nuclear will be appearing in the not too distant future.

Mar 27 01:13 PM

[aquaculture:]

A few points:

-the contradiction in your article is this: you SHOW ENERGY consumption, and derive conclusions about ELECTRICITY consumption.The two are very different, of course.
eg: In a recession people might drive less, but then stay at home more often, so electricity consumption rises relatively in the energy mix.

-It is by no means certain that we will enter a depression-depressions are so.....last century!

-Carbon cap regulation? Global warming?

-utility rates will increase (sulphur free coal reserves depleting, cleaner coal expense, scrubbers etc, mandatory renewables %, grid renewal etc.) closing the gap with wind- solar-, geothermal- electric generation in cost/kwh -which is falling- and with various cleantech.

-demographics: eg, (Il)legal Immigration rates higher in global recessions (America in recession is still a better place to live then anywhere else), birth rate might increase when and if pension system uncertainty increases.

So my own view is the inverse: greentech will not only do well: it will get the U.S OUT of recession. This is easy to understand: greentech is hightech.
And the U.S has the best resources in this carbon-era endgame(higher educational institutions, community colleges and last but not least the best community worker...)

Mar 27 02:06 PM