NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next? 49 comments
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In the first Great Depression, the government tried, for several years, between 1929 and 1933, to maintain a fiction that the U.S. dollar was still convertible and as “good as gold”, in spite of having irresponsibly printed more dollars than they had gold to back them. Back in the 1920s, just like during the last 22 years, the Federal Reserve had run its printing press overtime, and, as a result, it couldn’t deliver. The U.S. Treasury eventually ran out of the gold, in the face of overwhelming public demand, resulting in the infamous gold confiscation order, by President Franklin Roosevelt, in 1933. History may be repeating itself, except that the government no longer makes any pretension to maintaining a gold standard, or any standards at all. Instead, nowadays, the futures exchanges offer to trade gold for a floating number of dollars, and, it appears, they have printed more paper contracts than they can redeem, at least when it comes to 1 kilogram bars.
The NYSE-Liffe futures exchange has, it seems, run out of 1 kg bars of gold. Futures markets, like NYSE-Liffe and COMEX, try hard to maintain the fiction that they will deliver physical gold, in completion of executed contracts. Indeed, to prevent fraud, U.S. law requires clearing members to keep a stockpile, of one kind or another, consisting of a minimum of 90% of metal. Up until October, 2008, it didn’t matter. Only about 1% of long buyers of paper gold futures contracts typically took delivery. Now, the situation is very different. Demand has surged and, it appears, one major futures exchange, NYSE-Liffe, and by extension, the COMEX gold warehouses it shares with its larger cousin, are unable to meet the requirements of their contracts, vis-a-vis, delivery of 1 kg. bars.
As of December 31, 2008, the NYSE-Liffe mini-gold (YG) contract specifications were changed to read, in pertinent part, as follows:
33.2 fine troy ounces (+10%), no Less than 995 fineness. Seller’s discretion delivery of one vault receipt representing one bar or one Warehouse Depository Receipt (WDR) representing either 1/3 interest in one full size gold NYSE Liffe vault receipt or full interest in a NYSE Liffe Mini Gold vault receipt. Delivered to exchange approved vaults by exchange approved carriers.
33.2 troy ounces (±5%) of refined gold, assaying not less than .995 fineness, contained in no more than one bar.
In summary, there is now so much demand for delivery of the mini-contracts that the exchange can no longer deliver 1 kg bars. When the wording was changed, a flurry of complaints resulted. Technically, in my opinion, if you bought a mini futures contract from an NYSE-Liffe clearing member, prior to December 31st, you could bind them to their legal contract with you, and force them to either deliver the 1 kg bar, or pay for you to obtain it on the open spot market. Based upon the original wording, NYSE-Liffe and its clearing members are legally obligated to deliver that 1 kg bar per contract, whether they want to or not, and regardless of the internal rules of the exchange. Whether anyone will force compliance, however, is an open question.
Absent legal action, clearing members are now being allowed to hand out little slips of paper, called “warehouse depository receipts” (WDR). These are being substituted for “vault receipts” (VR). The WDRs, in contrast to the VRs, merely promise the customer that he owns a 1/3 interest in a 100 ounce bar. The customer is not allowed to take delivery, unless he can accumulate 3 WDRs, which equals 1 VR. NYSE-Liffe shares its warehouses with COMEX. The warehouse is predominantly stocked with 100 ounce bars. The COMEX ETF also stores 100 ounce bars, and clearing members can withdraw baskets of them in order to meet delivery demands. But, the COMEX ETF doesn’t store any 1 kg. bars.
After a customer complaint, I contacted the head of regulatory compliance at NYSE-Liffe, and had a serious chat with him. He seemed like a nice enough fellow, but he wouldn’t admit that NYSE-Liffe had run out of 1 kilo bars. He said that the warehouse registrar has complete “discretion” to hand out paper WDRs, representing a 1/3rd interest in a 100 ounce bar, if the “circumstances warrant”. But, if the exchange has “complete discretion” to alter contracts as they see fit, what is the purpose of the advertised contract specifications? NYSE-Liffe claims that its clearing members can rely on Exchange Rule 1408. This obscure rule, however, was never communicated to customers. Nevertheless, it is now being relied upon by the exchange, in an attempt to “default” on the contracts without legal consequences. The rule says that clearing members can substitute delivery of a WDR, giving the customer a 1/3rd interest in a 100 ounce bar, instead of a physical 1 kg bar of gold. There is only one problem. In their eagerness to sell contracts, the exchange failed to communicate that to customers and failed to make it a part of the contract specifications. As a result, clearing members may be saved from claims by one against the other, but they are NOT immune to the just claims of aggrieved customers. The exchange clearly misled the public, intentionally or unintentionally, and allowed clearing members to sell huge numbers of 1 kg contracts, even though they did not have enough 1 kg. bars to fulfill the contracts.
There has been a lot of talk, over the past year, by bearish gold commentators, claiming that the shortage of gold and silver is merely a fluke of the retail market. However, 1 kg. bars of gold are NOT a retail denomination. They are the primary unit used in most commodity futures markets. Unlike the American exchanges, the 1 kg. bar dominates deliverable contracts, for example, on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange, as well as many other commodities exchanges around the world. They were also the primary unit of the mini-gold contracts (YG), offered by NYSE-Liffe, prior to the technical default. In other words, the retail gold shortage has spread into the wholesale market. What’s next? Will there be a shortage of 100 ounce bars? No exchange rule can be used to hide from a technical default on delivery of 100 ounce bars. But, vast numbers of 100 ounce bars are stored at the iShares COMEX gold trust (IAU). So, a default in delivery of 100 ounce bars will take a while.
All that said, however, given that the Fed printing press is running overtime, things are going to get tighter. It will take only a few months of delivery percentages similar to those seen in December, 2008, before all the 100 ounce gold bars are gone. What will the futures exchanges do? Hand out little slips of paper entitling contract holders to a ¼ interests in 400 ounce banker’s bars? There is no rule that allows that. What happens when people start taking mass delivery of the 400 ounce bars? Will they hand out fractional shares in gold mines, along with picks and shovels?
The only way that remaining supplies can be rationed is by a rise in price sufficient to deter some of the buying. For some reason, the supply and demand for gold on the futures market is significantly out of synchronization. This implies that those who claim that the price of gold is manipulated are probably correct, because the situation could not happen in a completely free market. But, even if the gold market is manipulated, the manipulators cannot stop this from happening if the demand for delivery continues. In a more practical sense, coupled with the nearly complete removal of all small retail denominations of gold from store shelves around the world, demand is clearly outstripping supply by a considerable measure.
With the U.S. and the U.K. now engaged in quantitative easing (printing new dollars and pounds), and other central banks ready to join, we can reasonably assume that the desire to exchange paper money for gold will get stronger. If the price does not rise significantly, and quickly, it is only a matter of time before these shortages reach the 100 ounce bars, and, then, on to the 400 ounce banker’s bars. That is what happened, back in the 1930s, and it is happening again. The main difference is that, in the 1930s, the price was fixed by the government, so the conversion of dollars to gold could not be controlled by a rise in price. Now, however, the price of gold can go up until, potentially, it is high enough to discourage more buying by the public. It is impossible to say whether or not this means a rise to $2,000 or $2,500 per ounce by the end of 2009, as some have predicted. But, it does mean that the price will surely rise, that the rise is going to be huge, and, probably, that it will be fast and furious, at some point in the near future.
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This article has 49 comments:
Nobody could understand why our users would want metal instead of paper...
Since then, our users have chosen not to hold gold in New York anyway. NY storage accounts for less than 2% of current 16.1 tonnes total. More than 90% of US-owned gold at BullionVault sits in Zurich, Switzerland.
You can see the difference in volume (plus the range of NY bar sizes compared to the 400-oz good delivery bars held in London and Zurich) on our Daily Audit here:
www.bullionvault.com/a...
It now appears possible that all they have are Electronic IOUs.
If The Physical cannot be accounted for, what affect would a Ponzi like Gold scheme by GLD do to Physical Gold itself?
Would this alone, be enough to drive Gold to $2,000 because there is less supply than previously thought? Or would there be an immediate drop because Gold cannot be trusted as a safe Haven or Both, first down then Up?
On Mar 27 08:47 AM paultaut wrote:
> Your Article helps increase my fear regarding the Actuality of Physical
> Gold sitting in GLD's vaults.
>
> It now appears possible that all they have are Electronic IOUs.<br/>
>
> If The Physical cannot be accounted for, what affect would a Ponzi
> like Gold scheme by GLD do to Physical Gold itself?
>
> Would this alone, be enough to drive Gold to $2,000 because there
> is less supply than previously thought? Or would there be an immediate
> drop because Gold cannot be trusted as a safe Haven or Both, first
> down then Up?
But, I have a box of new handkerchiefs waiting for all you believers (in the elitist greedy b------s that you are giving your hard earned money to). Me, I'll just continue to amass my PHYSICAL gold and silver in my safes. Which one of us can sleep better tonight?
"IN GOD WE TRUST" be on all our paper dollars and our coins. Go ahead and check your wallet or your pocket. That didn't just happen. They were warning us to not be so naive as to trust anyone else but GOD. Our money does not say on it to trust our politicians, the NYSE, Madoff, Fort Knox, or any other phony man-made creations. Our forefathers weren't cynical, just very wise realists. Why now do we act so surprised?
Running out of a product is not the main issue -
Running out of gold bars per se is.
A "shortage" of a specific product is transactional in nature only , not a true "default" scenario.
An overall shortage of gold is .
Tim Iaconno just wrote an article in which he relays a conversation he had with the folks over at the Streettracks ETF, GLD. It can be found here:
seekingalpha.com/artic...?
The GLD people answered the burning questions so many people have been having about how the fund can increase by so many alleged tons of gold without any evidence that any gold is actually being moved in or out. Iaconno didn't realize the revelations he was passing along are the basis of an illegal Ponzi scheme.
GLD basically admitted that they aren't really buying any gold, and are just moving it from "unallocated" to allocated storage. Which means, of course, that they are cheating some poor slob, who innocently purchased unallocated gold from people like the Perth Mint, or Kitco, and who doesn't know about the PPT banks and how they are scamming gold buyers.
For example, Kitco, which has a close relationship with one of the most commonly accused banks, alleged to be manipulating gold prices, HSBC, solicits people to invest in the Kitco unallocated gold "pool". I'm not exactly sure what the specifics are, or what investors are being told, but many will probably assume their gold is sitting in an "undivided" condition, somewhere in the HSBC vault, because that is where Kitco gets most of its gold (when it has gold). The truth, however, is that such gold is not safely in storage for the buyers. Rather, it is subject to being gobbled up by the GLD ETF.
Such gold, gobbled up to take care of subsequent purchasers of GLD, won't be there when the gold pool owners want and need it. If they want to convert to physical, they may be out of luck! If that ain't a Ponzi scheme, I don't know what is!
Hopefully, when people begin to realize that a severe shortage of real gold is developing, they will buy it like crazy, and bankrupt the PPT controlled bullion banks!
Take this morning, Stock market, Oil, Gold, Silver, Agri futures all down. USD up.
I mean what the hey! Fear? nope Gold went down.
Could it be the Fruitcake N. Korean missile Launch with Japanese Interceptor warships cruising to shoot it down? Could be?
YH: Another totally non-metal pick from this fruitcake: Carbon Emmisions anyone? Evergreen Energy.
EEE with Partner IBM is making news all over the world, Penny stock turned dollar stock. Market down? EEE up.
BTW, did you get into Linc Energy, YH? If you looked at it below $10 and found it wanting, maybe the recent move to $15 is a better indicator than my singing its praises.
So, how about this - investor demand for gold is increasing but jewellery demand is decreasing with the net effect that gold is largely down since March 2008. No need for conspiracy theories - just plain economics 101.
On Mar 27 12:34 PM paultaut wrote:
> At this point, I really couldn't care less what Gold does or doesn't
> do.
>
> Take this morning, Stock market, Oil, Gold, Silver, Agri futures
> all down. USD up.
>
> I mean what the hey! Fear? nope Gold went down.
>
> Could it be the Fruitcake N. Korean missile Launch with Japanese
> Interceptor warships cruising to shoot it down? Could be?
>
> YH: Another totally non-metal pick from this fruitcake: Carbon Emmisions
> anyone? Evergreen Energy.
>
> EEE with Partner IBM is making news all over the world, Penny stock
> turned dollar stock. Market down? EEE up.
>
> BTW, did you get into Linc Energy, YH? If you looked at it below
> $10 and found it wanting, maybe the recent move to $15 is a better
> indicator than my singing its praises.
First, some background: NYSE Liffe US began operations on Sept. 8, 2008 after the CFTC approved it as a Designated Contract Market on August 21, 2008. As a result of the CFTC’s approval, NYSE Liffe US became officially licensed to trade 100 ounce gold futures, 5,000 ounce silver futures, options on 100 ounce gold and 5,000 ounce silver futures, and mini-sized 33.2 ounce gold and 1,000 ounce silver futures. This suite of precious metals products was previously known as the CBOT Metals Complex, which NYSE Liffe purchased from the CME Group. As part of that transition, NYSE Liffe US also acquired the existing rules and processes applicable to the CBOT Metals Complex.
There are some material inaccuracies in your post regarding NYSE Liffe US that warrant clarification with respect to our market:
• There has been no default in the delivery of a NYSE Liffe US Gold Futures Contract whether 100 ounce or Mini-Sized, since NYSE Liffe has taken over the operation of the market from the CBOT. Any assertion to the contrary is inaccurate.
• Our delivery process for physical gold is sound and robust. We monitor the performance of our Clearing Members’ obligations and have procedures to address issues relating to the performance of their obligations under the terms of our Contracts and Exchange Rules.
• The assertion that we changed the contract specifications on Dec. 31st is also incorrect.
• The contract specifications and related rules have not changed since we took over the operation of the market on Sept. 8, 2008. Those specifications and rules state that a market participant who is short one or more Mini-Sized Gold Futures Contracts has the option to deliver one or more Warehouse Delivery Receipts (or WDRs) in satisfaction of the short’s delivery obligation. In addition, the WDR program has from Sept. 8, 2008 also required that 3 WDRs be submitted to receive a vault receipt, which can be used to take Gold out of a vault.
• NYSE Liffe Notice 8/2008 issued on Sept. 4, 2008, expressly sets forth the requirement that the cancellation of WDRs in favor of vault receipts requires the presentation of 3 Gold WDRs to the Exchange Registrar to receive a vault receipt.
• This was the CBOT rule that NYSE LIFFE US “inherited” when we took control of the exchange on Sept. 8, 2008.
• The post misconstrues the meaning of the Mini-Sized Gold contract specification’s phrase “contained in no more than one bar.” That merely means that the Gold delivered on a Mini-Sized Gold Contract has to be in one bar of at least 33.2 ounces (give or take applicable tolerances), as opposed to 34 one ounce gold coins, for example. Under the WDR program, delivery of 33.2 ounces of gold in one 100 ounce bar as represented by one WDR is, and has been, as long as we have operated the market, acceptable.
• We issued a NYSE Liffe Notice 1/2009 on Jan. 8, 2009 (found here: www.nyse.com/pdfs/NYSE...) where we reminded the market of this policy that Gold WDRs may only be exchanged for vault receipts in multiples of three.
• If anyone has any questions, please contact the NYSE Liffe NY office at 212.656.4300.
NYSE Liffe US appreciates the opportunity to serve its customers and the broader marketplace. We look forward to offering the best products and services for futures trading and we strive to ensure that our policies and process continue to best serve the interests of our valued customers. Thank you for the opportunity to clarify the record.
Think about it, we have had Parabolic rises in Oil, Ethanol, Solar, housing, LNG, etc.
One is as good as another but until a "hue and cry" is raised over Gold above $1,500, I won't even consider selling. That's Goldman's Target.
It will only be a Confirmation of their assessment at that level.
IMHO
Is there anyway for you to post your comment where the entire SA membership which is interested in Gold can view it.?
Like, maybe submit it as a "one and Only one" article in the Gold section?
Wheres the beef (gold)? I'm not high enought on the economic scale to have manipulated this market even one millimeter. Could the tarp money/bailout money be going into gold for all of the banks.? It has to be going somewhere if not in kilo bars. Coins are getting hard to come by also. Seems the lower denominations are dissappearing fast. Wish my crystal ball was working.
On Mar 27 11:30 AM Terry Finn wrote:
> Just think about the reason our forefathers insisted that the words,
>
> "IN GOD WE TRUST" be on all our paper dollars and our coins. Go ahead
> and check your wallet or your pocket. That didn't just happen. They
> were warning us to not be so naive as to trust anyone else but GOD.
> Our money does not say on it to trust our politicians, the NYSE,
> Madoff, Fort Knox, or any other phony man-made creations. Our forefathers
> weren't cynical, just very wise realists. Why now do we act so surprised?
On Mar 27 06:09 PM doubleguns wrote:
> Could a shortage in 1 kilo bars be the result of the majority of
> gold going to in to 100 and 400 oz bars? Just a thought. I assume
> since jewlery demand has come down sharply more would be available
> for invester demand. Does seem fishy that invester demand is not
> getting filled when jewlery demand is down!
>
> Wheres the beef (gold)? I'm not high enought on the economic scale
> to have manipulated this market even one millimeter. Could the tarp
> money/bailout money be going into gold for all of the banks.? It
> has to be going somewhere if not in kilo bars. Coins are getting
> hard to come by also. Seems the lower denominations are dissappearing
> fast. Wish my crystal ball was working.
On Mar 27 03:54 PM paultaut wrote:
> Silverwood: Would this parabolic rise really be as negative as you
> make it sound?
>
> Think about it, we have had Parabolic rises in Oil, Ethanol, Solar,
> housing, LNG, etc.
>
> One is as good as another but until a "hue and cry" is raised over
> Gold above $1,500, I won't even consider selling. That's Goldman's
> Target.
>
> It will only be a Confirmation of their assessment at that level.
>
>
> IMHO
On Mar 27 08:47 AM paultaut wrote:
> Your Article helps increase my fear regarding the Actuality of Physical
> Gold sitting in GLD's vaults.
>
> It now appears possible that all they have are Electronic IOUs.<br/>
>
> If The Physical cannot be accounted for, what affect would a Ponzi
> like Gold scheme by GLD do to Physical Gold itself?
>
> Would this alone, be enough to drive Gold to $2,000 because there
> is less supply than previously thought? Or would there be an immediate
> drop because Gold cannot be trusted as a safe Haven or Both, first
> down then Up?
The Pledge of Allegiance begun in 1892 didn't have "Under God" in it until the Knights of Columbus began a campaign that ultimately led to success in 1954.
As evident in their writings, our founding fathers were greatly into the separation of Church and State - many having escaped persecution for their religious beliefs in Europe. It was only later that religion started getting added in and conservatives started pushing the myths of founding fathers who wanted to incorporate God into government.
He made no reference whatsoever to How much Gold is in stock. The statement that "there has been no default in the delivery of", means exactly what it says.
I take it to mean "Yet".
Silverwood: My Comment was strictly from how it would look on a chart not in the context of some appocalyptic event. Last year's moves in the coal sector and in coal stocks like JRCC were somewhat parabolic in my opinion.
If you own gold, take your profits before the this latest bubble pops.
That sounds like a 3.55% gain to me. Isn't that a very GOOD thing for the customer? Couldn't people just sell the 100 ounce bar, buy 3 more kilogram bars, take delivery on another 100 ounce bar, etc. If you just did one of these cycles per business day, you would be making 923% per year!
Sounds too good to be true, so it probably is...
GLD may have the gold, but they may not, they may even be holding contracts on the exchange, which could be holding the price down but they may not be.
Point is, there is no audit, no transparency, no way of knowing for sure where your money is being invested and that is why I won't invest in them.
On Mar 29 01:21 PM Paul H. M. wrote:
> If GLD is no good, what is the best way to play gold (assuming you
> don't want the gigantic risk of owning and storing physical yourself).
John Adams said: "Avarice, ambition, revenge, or gallantry, would break the strongest cords of our Constitution as a whale goes through a net. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other." All the States had established churches at the signing of the Constitution--including Jefferson's Virginia. What did they perceive about the preconditions of a prosperous society that today we dismiss?
On Mar 28 05:19 AM Hillsfar wrote:
> Point of fact. "In God We Trust" was placed on U.S. coinage in 1865.
> It
was placed on U.S. paper currency starting in 1957.
>
> The
Pledge
> of Allegiance begun in 1892 didn't have "Under God" in it until
the
> Knights of Columbus began a campaign that ultimately led to success
in
> 1954.
>
> As evident in their writings, our founding fathers were
greatly
> into the separation of Church and State - many having escaped
persecution
> for their religious beliefs in Europe. It was only later
that
> religion started getting added in and conservatives started
pushing
> the myths of founding fathers who wanted to incorporate God
into
> government.
Can you show me where in the constitution there is any mention of separation of church and state?
I know it says the government cannot tell us what religion we should be. But that's about it.
COMEX + GLD are scams !
But It is plain old stubbornness to extol the virtues of a commodity which is acting like a Yo Yo.
Especially when plain old stock trades beat the Heck out the Piddly 33% seen in Gold Over the Past 5 months(last Fridays Close from the $700 bottom).
You are so fixated on Gold and GLD, that you have missed major Buying opportunities in various stocks sectors and in various Gold/Silver Miners as well.
There are bottoming patterns all over the place and spikes to higher highs and lows.
Nat Gas, down down down, LNG companies UP. Why? I do not care. I like the Charts...
YH: CQP, It will payout another $1.26 this year. After that? who knows, but the Chart is starting to look like a thing of beauty. LNG, not as pretty but its move up from its Market lows puts almost every Gold/Silver related stock either Major or Minor to shame.
Go ahead, keep your heads in the sand.
Oh, One Other thing for those of you singing the Praises of what Gold did in the Great Depression.
It did absolutely nothing by itself. Totally Squat. But It was a Star!!! Continue to fool yourselves.
Gold went from around $21 to $35, overnight, because the Government Altered the Fixed price. That's it. That price stayed fixed until 1971.
Try to change that particular piece of Actual history.
These both reference a concept of separation of Church and State.
Philman, you claim that an unallocated to allocated conversion is a Ponzi scheme indicates you don't know anything about the gold market. It is a standard process and does prove they have real gold, because that is what the word "allocated" means.
I also don't understand what GLD moving from unallocated to allocated storage has to do with people who have unallocated gold with the Perth Mint. The Mint's unallocated is backed by physical in its operations.
Read up here:
www.treas.gov/educatio...
On Mar 27 11:30 AM Terry Finn wrote:
> Just think about the reason our forefathers insisted that the words,
>
> "IN GOD WE TRUST" be on all our paper dollars and our coins. Go
> ahead and check your wallet or your pocket. That didn't just happen.
> They were warning us to not be so naive as to trust anyone else but
> GOD. Our money does not say on it to trust our politicians, the NYSE,
> Madoff, Fort Knox, or any other phony man-made creations. Our forefathers
> weren't cynical, just very wise realists. Why now do we act so surprised?
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion.
It can't be any clearer than that.
Thomas Jefferson later wrote a letter expressing his opinion on the topic that has been cited in many Supreme Court decisions.
Believing with you that religion is a matter which lies solely between man & his god, that he owes account to none other for his faith or his worship, that the legitimate powers of government reach actions only, and not opinions, I contemplate with sovereign reverence that act of the whole American people which declared that their legislature should make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof, thus building a wall of separation between church and state. [Congress thus inhibited from acts respecting religion, and the Executive authorised only to execute their acts, I have refrained from presenting even occasional performances of devotion presented indeed legally where an Executive is the legal head of a national church, but subject here, as religious exercises only to the voluntary regulations and discipline of each respective sect.] Adhering to this expression of the supreme will of the nation in behalf of the rights of conscience, I shall see with sincere satisfaction the progress of those sentiments which tend to restore to man all his natural rights, convinced he has no natural right in opposition to his social duties.
On Mar 29 04:00 PM yellowhoard wrote:
> Hillsfar,
>
> Can you show me where in the constitution there is any mention of
> separation of church and state?
>
> I know it says the government cannot tell us what religion we should
> be. But that's about it.
The founders were libertarian. They would have no problem with a community of Babtists reciting a prayer before a town hall meeting.
They would have had no problem with a Muslim High school praising Allah before a football game.
They clearly wanted the Federal government to stay the hell out of the individual states affairs.
Jefferson was a genious. He was not the only author of the constitution. I suspect he would be appauled at the attack on faith that is now underway at the federal level.
On Mar 27 11:58 AM waldipup wrote:
> Is the volume of mini contracts so substantial that paper receipts
> make a difference?
>
> Running out of a product is not the main issue -
>
> Running out of gold bars per se is.
>
> A "shortage" of a specific product is transactional in nature only
> , not a true "default" scenario.
>
> An overall shortage of gold is .