Oil Price Moves (February 11 - March 27)

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Oil prices have risen $16.44 (46%) within this time frame:

March 27th (Friday) - Oil drops $1.96 to $52.38 a barrel
The reason: The U.S. dollar posted its largest one-day gain in more than two months against the euro.

March 26th (Thursday) - Oil jumps $1.57 to $54.34 a barrel
The reason: The U.S. Commerce Department downwardly-revised GDP for the last quarter of 2008 to -6.3%, less than the -6.6% analysts expected.

March 25th (Wednesday) - Oil falls $1.21 to $52.77 a barrel
The reason: The EIA reported that U.S. crude inventories shot up 3.3 million barrels last week, much more than the 1.3 million barrels analysts expected. This brings the total count to 356.6 million barrels, the highest since July 1993! The impact of this rise was partially offset by U.S. gasoline inventories falling 1.1 million barrels, new home sales rising in February, and a weaker dollar due to Geithner's remarks.

March 24th (Tuesday) - Oil rises 18 cents to $53.98 a barrel
The reason: Oil rebounded in anticipation of Wednesday's EIA report after being down for most of the day due to a stronger dollar. Analysts expect gasoline stockpiles to drop 500,000 barrels and crude-oil stockpiles to rise 1.3 million barrels for the week ended March 20th.

March 23rd (Monday) - Oil rises $1.73 to $53.80 a barrel
The reason: The Dow surged 500 points after the U.S. Treasury unveiled its detailed plan to buy up toxic assets. Also, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales went up an unexpected 5.1% in February as prices plunged.

March 20th (Friday) - Oil drops 55 cents to $51.06 a barrel
The reason: The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded after 8 consecutive days in the red.

March 19th (Thursday) - Oil surges $3.47 to $51.61 a barrel
The reason: The dollar fell against major currencies after the Federal Reserve announced its plan to inject around one trillion dollars into the economy.

March 18th (Wednesday) - Oil falls $1.02 to $48.14 a barrel
The reason: The day's weekly EIA report showed that gasoline inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels. Analysts expected a drop of 2.1 million barrels.

March 17th (Tuesday) - Oil rises $1.81 to $49.16 a barrel
The reason: Government data showed that the number of housing starts surprisingly jumped by 22 percent in February, the largest percentage rise since January 1990.

March 16th (Monday) - Oil jumps $1.10 to $47.35 a barrel
The reason: In an interview with "60 Minutes", Ben Bernanke said that "we'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year." This optimism overshadowed OPEC's decision to keep output unchanged.

March 13th (Friday) - Oil falls 78 cents to $46.25 a barrel
The reason: An OPEC report released today showed world oil demand contracting faster than expected.

March 14th (Thursday) - Oil surges $4.70 to $47.03 a barrel
The reason: Oil rose on better than expected U.S. retail sales data and in anticipation of OPEC's meeting the following Sunday.

March 11th (Wednesday) - Oil plunges $3.38 to $42.33 a barrel
The reason: U.S. crude inventories surprisingly increased 700,000 barrels for the week ended March 6th as analysts had expected a drop of 1 million barrels.

March 10th (Tuesday) - Oil drops $1.36 to $45.71 a barrel
The reason: The U.S. Energy Department cut its world oil demand forecast for 2009.

March 9th (Monday) - Oil gains $1.55 to $47.07 a barrel
The reason: Oil hit a two-month high today on speculation that OPEC will cut more production when it meets the following Sunday (March 15th).

March 6th (Friday) - Oil jumps $1.91 to $45.52 a barrel
The reason: The dollar fell against the euro, making oil more attractive to foreign investors, as the U.S. unemployment rate jumped to its highest level in 26 years.

March 5th (Thursday) - Oil drops $1.77 to $43.61 a barrel
The reason: Oil prices followed the U.S. stock market lower as the Dow ended at a new 12-year low. Support also came after China announced it will not add to its $586 billion stimulus package.

March 4th (Wednesday) - Oil soars $3.73 to $45.38 a barrel
The reason: The day's EIA report revealed a 700,000 barrel drop in crude inventories for the week ended Feb. 27th. Analysts had expected crude stocks to rise 2.2 million barrels. Additional support came from speculation that China will soon announce a hefty stimulus package.

March 3rd (Tuesday) - Oil rises $1.50 to $41.65 a barrel
The reason: Oil prices rose despite more gloomy U.S. economic data after an oil pipeline operated by Royal Dutch Shell in Nigeria exploded. Analysts expected tomorrow's EIA report to show a 2.2 million barrel rise in crude inventories and a 600,000 barrel drop in gasoline inventories.

March 2nd (Monday) - Oil plunges $4.61 to $40.15 a barrel
The reason: Oil prices declined sharply today on demand worries as the Dow dropped below the 7000 mark for the first time since 1997. In addition, the US Commerce Department reported that construction spending in January fell to a four-year low.

February 27th (Friday) - Oil slips 46 cents to $44.76 a barrel
The reason: U.S. GDP for the last quarter of 2008 was downwardly-revised from -3.8% to -6.2%.

February 26th (Thursday) - Oil surges $2.72 to $45.22 a barrel
The reason: The main oil supplier of the United Arab Emirates unexpectedly announced today that it will cut 15%-17% of its April crude supplies to Asia. Support also came from yesterday's EIA report which showed U.S. gasoline demand rising.

February 25th (Wednesday) - Oil rises $2.54 to $42.50 a barrel
The reason: The day's EIA report revealed that gasoline inventories unexpectedly dropped 3.4 million barrels and that crude inventories only rose 700,000 barrels. Analysts had expected gasoline inventories to fall 100,000 barrels and crude inventories to rise 2 million barrels.

February 24th (Tuesday) - Oil jumps $1.52 to $39.96 a barrel
The reason: Oil followed US stocks higher after Ben Bernanke told Congress that the nationalization of banks is unlikely and that the "severe" recession could end this year. Tomorrow will be dictated by the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report as analysts expect crude inventories to rise 2 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 20.

February 23rd (Monday) - Oil slides $1.59 to $38.44
The reason: Oil followed the tumbling U.S. stock market despite a warning that OPEC will likely cut ouput when members meet next month on March 15th.

February 20th (Friday) - Oil falls 54 cents to $38.94 a barrel
The reason: Pessimism in the stock market spilled over into oil.

February 19th (Thursday) - Oil surges $4.86 to $39.48 a barrel
The reason: The weekly EIA report revealed a surprising drop in U.S. crude inventories, Inventories fell for the first time this year, declining 138,000 barrels. Analysts expected an increase of 1.8 million barrels.

February 18th (Wednesday) - Oil drops 31 cents to $34.62 a barrel
The reason: Investors expect the next day's weekly EIA report to show an increase once again in U.S. crude inventories. Analysts estimate an increase of 1.8 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 13th.

February 17th (Tuesday) - Oil tumbles $2.58 to $34.93 a barrel
The reason: Gloomy data around the globe continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Japan reported Monday that it is suffering its worst economic downturn in 35 years.

February 16th (Friday) - Oil shoots up $3.53 to $37.51 a barrel
The reason: The House approved Obama's economic stimulus package today as investors hope this can revitalize demand.

February 12th (Thursday) - Oil slips $1.96 to $33.98 a barrel
The reason: Investors are worrying that inventories will continue to increase due to the overall lack of demand. This is the fifth consecutive day oil has been down.

February 11th (Wednesday) - Oil falls $1.62 to $35.94 a barrel
The reason: A weekly report from the Energy Information Administration revealed a larger-than-expected increase in crude inventories for the week ended Feb. 6th. Supplies rose 4.7 million barrels which surpassed the average analyst estimate of ~ 3 million. Crude inventories have gained in 18 of the past 20 weeks. Lack of demand much?

Stock position: None.

Comments

[alonzo:]

Interesting but the real reason that Oil is jumping all over the place in recent years is because the big hedge funds are playing the market in many areas including the price of a barrel of oil. I have followed the market for over 60 years and I have never seen oil jump daily like it has been doing for the past number of years. The Hedge funds do the same with stock.They buy, sending the price up, then after a few dollars they dump and short, then repeat the process. These guys deal in large numbers and can alter the bid and ask at their wim. you notice that 3 or 4 of them made billions in the past year. They have screwed up the market for the average investor.

Mar 29 12:26 PM

[whisperonth...:]

Would have been easier to follow if you had reversed the date order. After all, you spoke of an oil price increase, but put your dates into a decreasing price order.

Mar 29 12:38 PM

[ETF STER:]

Inventories of crude oil have grown to levels that have not been seen since 1993. Building from 246.1 mb/d Jan. 30, 2009 to 356.6 mb/d Mar. 25,2009.

Oil Demand has stayed constant at 14.16 mb/d in the same time period.

As long as supply increases and demand stays constant, there should be a decrease in the price of crude going forward. Also, as long as contango rules the market, the price of oil will trend lower.

Mar 29 01:16 PM

[Ferdinand E...:]

Knowing what I know about the oil market, and being a 'bottom-line' economist, I am not sure that this is the 'optimal' way to examine the oil price, but it is definitely very important, and under no circumstances can be dismissed.

By the way, HEDGE FUNDS DO NOT DETERMINE THE TREND OIL PRICE, but might contribute to price oscillations. Of course, a little algebra shows that oscillations can be obtained without the slightest reference to hedge funds and the like.

Mar 30 04:01 AM