As History Repeats Itself, Time to Buy Gold and Silver 50 comments
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History does not repeat but it does rhyme, said Mark Twain. For an excellent assessment of what a stock market crash can mean for the future we have only to turn to The Great Crash 1929 by Professor JK Galbraith.
It is all there, a complete repeat of the run up to the stock market crash of last autumn, and its consequences - thus far. There was the Florida real estate crash as a prelude to the main act, and then a 50 per cent plunge in the Dow Jones in late 1929, just like the one in 2008.
March rally
March 1930 saw a huge rally in stock prices. March 2009 has just given us the biggest rally since 1974 (a previous market crash year). But hold on a minute, what does JK Galbraith tell us happened next?
In 1930 stocks weakened a little in April and then moved sideways into June when they plunged down again. Then they continued falling month after month for the next two years.
Our governments know this, and it does help explain the rush to push money into the economy by means fair and uncertain. The aim is clearly to break the cycle and avoid the down trend.
But will it be successful? Nobody really knows. Is it worth trying? Yes, but the evidence so far is that the Great Recession is tracking a course that is out-of-control, or rather following a pattern last seen in the 1930s.
Perhaps we should be more optimistic, and think that something more like the 1970s ‘lost decade’ is upon us. 1974 was a terrible year for global stock markets and was followed by stagflation - a mixture of low growth and high inflation.
Inflation
Indeed, inflation is the only way to bail out an economy consumed by debt. In the 1930s debt deflation was allowed to take its disastrous course with public spending cuts and trade barriers making an already deteriorating cycle considerably worse.
However, anybody who has just bought into the stock market rally should really think about selling and staying out for a while. This is a time to park money in gold and silver and even exit cash, although you might care to note that cash and precious metals were the best performing asset class of the 70s, while in the 30s gold was the real star.
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This article has 50 comments:
TaurusTrader
www.taurustrader.wordp...
On Mar 29 09:00 AM TaurusTrader wrote:
> I believe true global economic recovery will happen soon ... The
> dollar will be stronger than ever before! So, if history is any lesson,
> precious metals will decline, decline very hard. In my opinion, Gold
> around $700 withing the next 3 months!
> TaurusTrader
> www.taurustrader.wordp...
social.stocktock.com/p...
On Mar 29 09:02 AM Chezfrederick wrote:
> Thanks for the reminder... a couple of comments, first, a chart of
> the market then and now would help. Second, let's hope the reflation
> efforts succeed for all our sakes. In the meantime, I am taking you
> views to heart being all cash and taking profit late last week.
Quote:
Stock prices move in reaction to the current and perceived state of the economy and attractiveness of equity investments. Since you fail to explain how economic conditions and political reactions to those conditions today mirror what happened in 1930, this "analysis" - - which could be replicated by any 6 year old child - - is a complete waste of space.
Hardly a waste of space if you look long and hard at what heppened then and now-
'perceived state of the economy and attractiveness of equity investments'
1930-Investors were hit financially when the bottom fell out of wall street and average investors lost millions.
2009-Investors were hit financially when the bottom fell out of wall street and average investors lost BILLIONs (401K's became 201K's).
1930- Investors were told 'the recovery is just around the corner, stocks have never been cheaper, buy now for the stock deal of a lifetime'
and investors watched their stocks fall in value even further.
2009- Investors are being told 'the recovery is just around the corner, stocks have never been cheaper, buy now for the stock deal of a lifetime'
We will see if stocks recover, but with a World Wide recession hammering investments, a return of stock prices to pre 2008 prices is unlikely.
1930- Investor confidence was devastated, wall street was looked upon as filled with racketeers, crooks, shysters, etc.. Trust in wall street and investment advisors was gone.
2009- Investor confidence has been devastated, wall street is looked upon as filled with racketeers, crooks, shysters, etc.. Trust in wall street and investment advisors is gone.
1930-Banks close due to bad investments they made.
2009 banks close due to bad investments they made.
Considering the evidence, you can't really blame the author for saying that history tends to repeat, now can you?
..........
On Mar 29 11:57 AM NYNapoleon wrote:
> Saying that the market will tank in June 2009 because the market
> tanked in June 1930 is such an incredibly weak form of reasoning
> that it makes reasoning by analogy seem strong. Stock prices move
> in reaction to the current and perceived state of the economy and
> attractiveness of equity investments. Since you fail to explain how
> economic conditions and political reactions to those conditions today
> mirror what happened in 1930, this "analysis" - - which could be
> replicated by any 6 year old child - - is a complete waste of space.
> The only salient point perhaps is to the extent there are people
> holding off buying because of similar analyses, then the equity markets
> are likely undervalued.
I was right ... you guys do get mad!!
TaurusTrader
On Mar 29 11:23 AM ManAboutDallas wrote:
> Short gold up to your eyeballs, there, BullyBoy? Oh dear..( ring..
> ring... ring... "Margin clerk calling for Mr. Taurus... hello Mr.
> Taurus, how are you, today? Please deposit one trillion, three-hundred
> billion, seventy-five million, eight-hundred-fiftyfive thousand,
> six-hundred-ten dollars and 95 cents into your margin account by
> close of business or your gold positions will be liquidated... thank
> you, and have a nice day!" )
And gold could be declared a 10 year felony to possess...just as FDR did by Presidential Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933.
This current scenario doesn't just rhyme with the Great D, it's plagiarism.
once Gold and the Dow are at 1:1 ratio THEN i am selling and buying stocks
On Mar 29 09:00 AM TaurusTrader wrote:
> I believe true global economic recovery will happen soon ... The
> dollar will be stronger than ever before! So, if history is any
> lesson, precious metals will decline, decline very hard. In my opinion,
> Gold around $700 withing the next 3 months!
> TaurusTrader
> www.taurustrader.wordp...
On Mar 29 12:31 PM Bundee wrote:
> Expecting the market to tank in June 2009 because it tanked in June
> 1930 is really crystal ball predicting, but expecting the market
> to rise even a little in this environment is wishful thin king at
> best.
>
> Quote:
> Stock prices move in reaction to the current and perceived state
> of the economy and attractiveness of equity investments. Since you
> fail to explain how economic conditions and political reactions to
> those conditions today mirror what happened in 1930, this "analysis"
> - - which could be replicated by any 6 year old child - - is a complete
> waste of space.
>
> Hardly a waste of space if you look long and hard at what heppened
> then and now-
>
> 'perceived state of the economy and attractiveness of equity investments'
>
>
> 1930-Investors were hit financially when the bottom fell out of wall
> street and average investors lost millions.
>
> 2009-Investors were hit financially when the bottom fell out of wall
> street and average investors lost BILLIONs (401K's became 201K's).
>
>
> 1930- Investors were told 'the recovery is just around the corner,
> stocks have never been cheaper, buy now for the stock deal of a lifetime'
>
> and investors watched their stocks fall in value even further.<br/>
>
> 2009- Investors are being told 'the recovery is just around the corner,
> stocks have never been cheaper, buy now for the stock deal of a lifetime'
>
> We will see if stocks recover, but with a World Wide recession hammering
> investments, a return of stock prices to pre 2008 prices is unlikely.
>
>
> 1930- Investor confidence was devastated, wall street was looked
> upon as filled with racketeers, crooks, shysters, etc.. Trust in
> wall street and investment advisors was gone.
>
> 2009- Investor confidence has been devastated, wall street is looked
> upon as filled with racketeers, crooks, shysters, etc.. Trust in
> wall street and investment advisors is gone.
>
> 1930-Banks close due to bad investments they made.
>
> 2009 banks close due to bad investments they made.
>
> Considering the evidence, you can't really blame the author for saying
> that history tends to repeat, now can you?
>
> ..........
> On Mar 29 11:57 AM NYNapoleon wrote:
"Prior to the start of the Depression, Hoover's first Treasury Secretary, Andrew Mellon, had proposed, and saw enacted, numerous tax cuts, which cut the top income tax rate from 73% to 24%."
"Hoover's stance on the economy was based largely on volunteerism. From before his entry to the presidency, he was a proponent of the concept that public-private cooperation was the way to achieve high long-term growth. Hoover feared that too much intervention or coercion by the government would destroy individuality and self-reliance, which he considered to be important American values."
Sound familiar - These poilicies resulted in 36% unemployment. Economic activism under Roosevelt decreased unemployment to 15% by 1937 using fiscal stimulus of ~3.5% of GNP. Worries about budget deficits stopped the spending and in 1937 and we went back into the depression.
"M2 monetary supply shrank by 1/3rd from 1929 to 1933. One reason why the Federal Reserve did not act to limit the decline of the money supply was regulation. At that time the amount of credit the Federal Reserve could issue was limited by laws which required partial gold backing of that credit."
Fiscal stimulus of ~40% of GNP occurred when we were in WW2. That 40% finally pulled us out of recession.
"Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade.".
Most of the historical comparisons that we read are intended to support a viewpoint. Therefore the authors filter history to support their philosophy.
Look at the points itemized above, add others and you will reach the conclusion that you need to take a longer and more inclusive view of the situation - then and now.If you do this, you will come to a very different conclusion.
On Mar 29 01:51 PM JCC wrote:
> You have a point that history repeats itself, but you need be careful
> on the version of history to which you are comparing. Additional
> historical points are listed below:
>
> "Prior to the start of the Depression, Hoover's first Treasury Secretary,
> Andrew Mellon, had proposed, and saw enacted, numerous tax cuts,
> which cut the top income tax rate from 73% to 24%."
>
> "Hoover's stance on the economy was based largely on volunteerism.
> From before his entry to the presidency, he was a proponent of the
> concept that public-private cooperation was the way to achieve high
> long-term growth. Hoover feared that too much intervention or coercion
> by the government would destroy individuality and self-reliance,
> which he considered to be important American values."
>
> Sound familiar - These poilicies resulted in 36% unemployment. Economic
> activism under Roosevelt decreased unemployment to 15% by 1937 using
> fiscal stimulus of ~3.5% of GNP. Worries about budget deficits stopped
> the spending and in 1937 and we went back into the depression. <br/>
>
> "M2 monetary supply shrank by 1/3rd from 1929 to 1933. One reason
> why the Federal Reserve did not act to limit the decline of the money
> supply was regulation. At that time the amount of credit the Federal
> Reserve could issue was limited by laws which required partial gold
> backing of that credit."
>
> Fiscal stimulus of ~40% of GNP occurred when we were in WW2. That
> 40% finally pulled us out of recession.
>
> "Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations
> through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot-Hawley
> Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated
> the collapse in global trade.".
>
> Most of the historical comparisons that we read are intended to support
> a viewpoint. Therefore the authors filter history to support their
> philosophy.
>
> Look at the points itemized above, add others and you will reach
> the conclusion that you need to take a longer and more inclusive
> view of the situation - then and now.If you do this, you will come
> to a very different conclusion.
A reasonable scenario is we'll see (along with joblessness, business failures and wild market gyrations) a world currency alignment that sees the USD decline about 50% relative to a number of strong, emerging currencies in order to restore trade balances.
A reasonable forecast for gold would be $2,000 in three years with silver (because of scarcity and increased applications) around $60.
Naturally, we have to keep in mind the uncertainty of what $2,000 will buy in three years............best load up on a little oil as well.
Margen of safety=1.3=>
PEmin=6.64x1.3=8.6
10Yrs earnings(average)=57
SP500 minimum = 8.6x57 = 492
SP500/Gold = 0.35 (average 2Q 1982)
Estimated price of gold = 492/0.35 = 1405
We are not in the 70s or 30s world anymore.
Brand new world brings brand new crisis !!!
(so its best for everyone to stop thinking in the old world terms)
I'm not quite certain how it is you're predicting a global economic recovery is around the corner.
First, Eastern Europe is in TERRIBLE shape, with numerous countries teetering on the brink. Normally, this could be construed as a "tempest in a teacup", except for the fact that many Western European banks extended credit to these countries (Austrian banks being the largest group of "bagholders", but not the only ones).
Secondly, although China has been aggressive in formulating and implementing their own stimulus package, their growth rate has dropped precipitously, as well. "Official" projections of a growth rate of 6% are increasing called into question, since Chinese statistics are pretty opaque; more than a few economists are thinking their growth may be closer to 0. In any case, the Chinese are trying to stimulate internal demand; not a bad thing, but that will do little to stimulate the "global" economy.
I could go on, but I think you get the idea.
old trader
On Mar 29 09:00 AM TaurusTrader wrote:
> I believe true global economic recovery will happen soon ... The
> dollar will be stronger than ever before! So, if history is any lesson,
> precious metals will decline, decline very hard. In my opinion, Gold
> around $700 withing the next 3 months!
> TaurusTrader
> www.taurustrader.wordp...
Could you enlighten me please. Would you think it prudent to LESSEN one's physical gold holdings in favor of physical silver? Reason: Possibility of Obama and his New World Order crew confiscating gold a la Roosevelt?
Appreciate your insight on this.
Why do most economists believe that wealth can be created or re-created by printing (or electronically creating) more fiat currency. Money is merely a medium of exchange. It is not true wealth. True wealth in an economic system is created and increased by improvements in the capital infrastructure which requires real savings. Consumption, by spending newly created money from the Fed, will not increase wealth or raise the standard of living.
But alas, our wise rulers will go back to the same well that never works and keep pulling out more dollars to "pump into the system" so they can pay off their constituents and their special interests (banks, states, other politicians and government itself) with the money they are creating daily.
Look for this rally to fizzle out, then equity prices will slide once again. Also, look for the purchasing power of the dollar to begin to slip, not against other currencies but against real assets including food and energy. Gold is a good investment now as well as silver. Also, look for price controls in a few years on products that contain commodities as their inputs (energy and food especially). Price controls will then lead to shortages.
When this happens, we can depend on our wise rulers to have a plan D, E, or F that will surely work and magically put wealth, I mean money since that is how wealth is measured by them, into everyone's life. Silly me for thinking that our standard of living has improved over the past 200 years due to wonderful inventions, technology that created a much more effecient capital base in which labor produces much more today than it could in the past. The only way living standards are improved is because some one saves, defers consumption, so that production can occur and be improved upon.
I guess I had it all wrong. All we need are more and more Federal Reserve notes to spend and consume since according to our rulers a lack of money is the problem.
Until 1933, when a panic occurred, the government did nothing and within several years, the economy was back again, stronger than ever. Blame for the Great Depression and the one we are in now can be placed squarely at the feet of the government and the fed. As Buffett said, and he is as guilty of it as anyone, "The only thing we learn from history, is that we don't learn anything from history." Don't believe it, keep your eye on Dear Teleprompter.
In other words, you cannot possibly predict or do the "right" thing except by accident. It is much too dependent on the acts of others (idiot Bush and welfare messiah Obama). Look to the 30's, but you don't have the same people or conditions. How about a little of this (gold) and a little of that (stocks), and laddered CDs? Hedge your bets?
Now, the one thing we can't predict is govt printing and how much they plan on *stimulating* the economy. They just said they plan on purchasing 300 billion on long bonds which is directly inflationary. If the fed has to purchase a large amount of the 1.8 trillion deficit, then I'm betting we'll see quite a bit of inflation coming down the pike.
You can't print your way into prosperity.
"In 1930 stocks weakened a little in April and then moved sideways into June when they plunged down again. Then they continued falling month after month for the next two years.
Our governments know this, and it does help explain the rush to push money into the economy by means fair and uncertain. The aim is clearly to break the cycle and avoid the down trend."
On Mar 29 03:22 PM Jimbo wrote:
> Appropriators always want a fiat currency because it
> allows so many opportunities to bribe voters. This happened in Classical
> Athens and Rome. I fear we may be headed down the same path.
taurus trader
i hope for that kind of drastic hit as it will create a great buying opportunity.
> ... I propose the idea of returning to a silver standard. Silver is more plentiful than gold...
Please check your facts before making authoritative statements. As is often the case, common "wisdom" is wrong because it is based on gut feel, not facts:
"In the world there are currently somewhere between 120,000 and 140,000 tonnes of gold ‘above ground’."
www.galmarley.com/fram...
Above ground stock of silver is 300 mn troy oz
news.silverseek.com/Si...
300,000,000 troy oz = 9331.04304 tonnes.
Does 9k tonnes of silver above ground seem like a greater quantity than 120k tonnes?
The one concentration of gold that might look tempting at the gold ETFs like GLD. At the same time, there is ample evidence to suggest that GLD really owns paper gold, not bullion. Astute observers have shown that during the times where GLD claims to have increased its reserves by huge amounts, the size of purchase could not be corroborated via COMEX sales. In other words, no delivered COMEX transactions could account for the supposed purchases. Thus, GLD is likely to be something of a fraud. They may not have nearly as much gold available to confiscate as people think.
Our whole economy is one scam layered upon another. The only smart thing to do is to put long term retirement savings into physical gold and just live your life.
On Mar 29 08:45 PM khl wrote:
> Interesting comment about gold confiscation. Back in the 1930's FDR
> took the gold because he was planning to devalue the dollar and gold
> was considered money back then. Now what reason would they have for
> taking our gold. According to Peter Schiff, it would be the act of
> a desperate government seeking funds to pay the army and the police.
> Will we have a warning. Keep it close in a safe, take it out of the
> safe deposit box when the civil unrest begins which it most certainly
> will.
It had been fixed via Fiat by the US at $20.67, It was raised vis Fiat to $35. It was a Real Star because of price fixing not because of some sort of flight to quality.
There sure wasn't any inflation. It was The Great Depression not the Great Inflation.
The USD was depreciated on purpose, without the Fiat Appreciation of Gold. Gold could have remained Fixed until the US left the Gold Standard in 1971.
Gold, the "Real Star" went where it sent, Overnight, by the US Government, via Price Fixing.
History cannot repeat.
You have any positive insights?
POINT1: Obama needs to maintain the confidence you have in him, when people lose confidence they either spark a civil war or panic and withdraw all their assests to the immediate collapse of the banks.
POINT 2: When the stock market collapsed in Aug 1929, no one knew that wall street would collapse [ it was sudden death] so if you think Obama or Tim Geithner will come to your door step & say "mate the stock market will collapse tomorrow" then you must be joking my friend!
POINT 3: The American dollar is not backed by anything, I repeat it is not backed by anything. The gold standard was removed in 1960, so the money you have is just paper. The U.S government is hanging on a thread. #1 they owe 78.8 trillion dollars total debt to the world & by the way remember that the world GDP = 78.4 trillion meaning that it would take the world a year's production to pay U.S debt. If you think I'm trippin you'll soon find out.
#2 The U.S consumes 50% of the world's oil and they buy that oil on borrowed money. so if the lending stops!! why do you think Bush & now Obama was so caring to Sudan, Garbon, Iraq and Kuwait,its oil and what the president is doing is defined as PLUNDER ie stealing to cover debt. Marine one is moving curtacy of spilled Iraqi blood. you think the U.S would be afraid of being bombed by Iraq, if it would withdraw the troops, how come Russia got the job done in just a week on Gorgian soil. The U.S is sucking the oil to keep your car moving if the troops come home then the government now has to buy the oil of which they don't have cash.
"if a nation lives in ignorance and expects to be free, then it expects what never was, and never will be" Thomas Jefferson 3rd President of the United States. the choice is yours either buy gold and silver or trust in Obama as if he'll call you for a meal at the white house when the NWO has crushed the stock market!!
The days of negative-real-yield debt from bankrupt sovereignties is coming to an end. These governments will have two choices, 1) allowing interest rates to rise to their market level, or 2) monetizing all this debt.
It is pretty obvious that the first option would not be implemented. The second leads to hyperinflation, which of course will be necessary to clear presently unpayable debts. Real assets will benefit.
"1974 was a terrible year for global stock markets and was followed by stagflation - a mixture of low growth and high inflation."
No. From Q2 1975 (when the recession ended) until Q4 1978, annual growth averaged 5.6% (compared to the 1947-1974 average of 3.86%), despite the uncertain pricing environment. Stagflation didn't really begin until 1979.
Of relevance is the performance of the equity market, (which I define for simplicity as the S&P 500). The 1973-1974 real loss of 50.6% (including dividends, and subtracting inflation) was followed by the 1975-1976 real gain of 50.9%. For the 6 years of 1975-1980, the average real annual gain was 8.5%, and for the 10 years 75-84 the real annual gain averaged 6.8%.
"Indeed, inflation is the only way to bail out an economy consumed by debt."
No. Either "indeed," "only," or "consumed by debt" doesn't mean what you seem to think. The U.S. national debt was 120% of GDP in 1946 (much higher than current), gradually declining to 42% in 1967 as real GDP grew 113% and CPI-U grew 71%.
"you might care to note that cash and precious metals were the best performing asset class of the 70s, while in the 30s gold was the real star."
This is so misleading it's funny. How exactly was cash a high-performing asset in the 1970s? I'm guessing some of the comments (haven't read them yet) will address this. And gold's performance in both periods was radically perverted by government manipulation of the market.
Prior to 1933, gold's price was artificially fixed at $20.67 (if I recall the number accurately), so when the government changed the fixed price from $20.67 to $35, gold's relative value skyrocketed. Cooper would have you believe that this government action is relevant to today's gold market. I haven't read an analysis of the gold market during this period (with market price information), though I would expect it to be somewhat similar to the late 1960s.
In 1971, the U.S. formally dismantled Bretton Woods, which was the exchange rate system under which gold's price was artificially set at $35. In the years prior, gold's value had fluctuated significantly in the market, often being traded in London at a 15-20% (or greater) premium to the "official" price. Significant upward pressure existed in gold's price, and when the U.S. officially ended Bretton Woods, this pressure was released and gold's price shot up. The oil-related inflation of the 1970s, along with a certain amount of mania, pushed gold to unprecedented heights.
Seriously, it's like saying that gold's a terrible investment vehicle because it was stagnant in the 1940s, 50s, and 60s - when the price was fixed by the government.
As for other metals during the 1970s, does Cooper not know anything about the Hunt brothers? Silver closed 1979 at about $35, up from less than $6 that year. By the end of 1980, it had peaked over $50 and crashed back to the $12 range. It's a very interesting story, worth a quick Googling.
Had the author done ANY level of analysis he would have seen the huge flaws here.
And how does any of this relate to our economy? Not much. The gold market is now relatively free. Inflation is currently very low, though future inflation concerns are legitimate. Fear is high. And gold, unlike most if not all other commodities, has not gotten a haircut in the face of the economic collapse.
My opinion is that if gold is going higher, silver and platinum are going much higher. Gold is overvalued in historical terms to other precious metals.
> Please check your facts before making authoritative statements.
Pot, meet kettle.
If you must rely on just a single source, you really should find one that cites both statistics you're trying to compare - otherwise the comparison has almost no chance at validity. Of course, you didn't need to rely on a single source:
Mine production in 2000: 581.2 million troy oz: (www.gfms.co.uk/Press%2...)
"Last year (2007), industrial demand for silver increased 7.2% to a record 455.3 million ounces, according to the 2008 World Silver Survey." (rosemanblog.sovereigns...)
"Silver mine output expected to push towards 700 Moz in
2009..." (www.gfms.co.uk/Market%...)
Here's one that provides a number for each as of 2004, citing several sources for each figure:
Gold: (median of 4 sources): 4.29 billion ounces
Silver (median of 5 sources): 43.5 billion ounces
www.gold-eagle.com/edi...
From the book "Coin Clinic" Page 112, ONLY $40 million in gold bullion, gold coins and gold certificates
were turned into the US Treasury.
It was estimated that $311 million in gold coins minted and $217.4 million in gold certificates printed were NOT turned in, less than 8% of gold and gold certificates were turned in.
Less than eight per cent.
Gold holders were not dumb back then,
The government didn't have enough federal agents or soldiers to search every house, apartment, farm, barn, cabin, etc in the country.
The confiscation consisted of an Executive Order requiring citizens to exhcange their gold for US Dollars, NOT turn over the gold and get nothing.
Smart gold holders, gold holders who had collectable coins, or those who preferred real money over paper, Ignored the Executive Order or crossed over into Canada or Switzerland, stored their gold in safe deposit boxes overseas, or just hid away the gold they had with the arguement-
'nobody knows what I have, Prove I have any gold! The burden of proof is on you the government!'
1933 was also the last year of Prohibition, a time when the citizen's of the US ignored the Constitutional Ammendment that outlawed making or drinking alcohol. The gold turn in law was ignored by the majority as well.
Zach
Greedreviews.com- "Letting investors rank, review and evaluate investment information sources"
1929-1932 saw 6 bear market rallies.
www.planbeconomics.com.../
Just buy it bury it and smile.
-- yes, but how much inflation would it take? A few points over a few decades will eviscerate my fixed pension. I'm sure it will do the same to 30-year T-bonds.
Most of my readers are in the Middle East and gold and silver is very popular here - have a look at the article about the next Hunts coming from the Middle East.
Historical parallels are difficult but the only true basis for rational analysis in my view.