91%, eh? Those are odds you can work with… Here are some general market thoughts via Credit Suisse on what happens when the year gets off to a good start. Unfortunately, this doesn’t leave much upside even if the odds are high:
“Since 1970, 90% of the time the January to February period has seen markets rise by 6% or more (as has been the case in 2013), equities have risen for the rest of the year on average by c11%.
The only exception to this was in 1987 – but even in that case, equities managed to rise 18% between the end of February and the middle of August (before falling 20% during Black Monday). Yet, in spite of that correction, markets still were up on the year overall.”
Source: Credit Suisse