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Excerpt from today's One Page Annotated Wall Street Journal Summary (which you can get emailed to you every morning by signing up here):

Big Problem In Music's Merger Tango: Who Leads?

  • Summary: EMI and Warner Music both agree they should merge, but are in a deadlock over who should be the acquirer and who the seller. Warner and EMI are about half the size of the two leaders, Vivendi Universal's Universal Music Group and Sony BMG Music, and believe there are compelling synergies in combining back office and international operations. Warner Music recently made a bid to purchase EMI for about $4.4 billion. On Friday, EMI rejected that offer and instead issued a counter-offer to buy Warner Music for $4.6 billion in cash. Warner Music was sold by Time Warner in 2004 for $2.6 billion to a group of private equity investors including Thomas H. Lee Partners LP, Bain Capital LLC and Providence Equity Partners Inc., together with Warner Chairman Edgar Bronfman.
  • Comment on related stocks/ETFs: Both stocks rose by 3-4% yesterday; Warner Music trades in the US (WMG). If it becomes the acquirer, its stock could fall. Meanwhile, the real loser of this deal is Time Warner (TWX), which it's now apparent sold Warner Music for too little in 2004. But Time Warner's chronic mis-management and failure to monetize its assets is arguably priced-in to its stock already.