Seeking Alpha
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

Hugo Benziger, Chief Risk Officer of DB, spoke today at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, saying "we are in the middle of [the crisis]". He added the industry has "an opportunity to build a stable financial system that seeks higher capital buffers, and encourages investors to return money to the market." Apparently Hugo is unaware of the governmental use of seasonal fudge factors which convert new home and retail sales numbers from pathetic to glorious. After all, why create a stable financial system when you can announce that everything is good, fudge some data here and there, and give the impression that everything has been fixed. If that doesn't get investors to return money to the market, nothing will... After all it worked last week... So now that the markets are in full retreat mode, let's see what numbers will receive the "seasonal factor" treatment next. These are the key releases over the next two days (with consensus in brackets):

Case Shiller (-18.60%)
Chicago Purchasing (34.3)
Consumer Confidence (28.0)
ADP Employment (-663K)
Pending Home Sales (0.0%)
Total Vehicle Sales (9.2 MM)
and the all important ISM Manufacturing (36)

Zero Hedge would be willing to bet that at least 5 of these data points will likely receive some peculiar fudging, resulting in totally unexpected upside surprises, and the suckering in of even more "investors", who are unable to be patient enough to listen to Hugo's advice and to actually get a stable market, instead believing that the "credit crisis" will be over as soon as the mortgage application number beats consensus by 1 thousandth of a percentage point. After all who really cares about the $5 trillion in commercial real estate that may or may not have 30% cume losses by 2018, when foreclosure sales in San Bernardino are rising.

Source: DB Chief Risk Officer: We're in the Middle of the Crisis Still