Cramer's Mad Money - We Have Nothing to Fear but Missing the Next Rally (3/30/09)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday March 30.

Nothing to Fear: General Motors (NYSE:GM), Lincoln National (NYSE:LNC), Metlife (NYSE:MET), Hartford Financial (NYSE:HIG)

Cramer admitted he couldn't account for the huge decline in the Dow on Monday. He explored several theories, such as the call for General Ford's CEO Rick Wagoner to step down, oil's 4% decline and Lincoln Life's skewering of its competitors, such as Metlife and Hartford Financial after committing the crime of declining federal assistance. Whatever was the real cause of the decline, Cramer would use it as a buying opportunity. He doesn't think the market will drop below 3% or 5%, and doesn't see the Dow under 7,000 or the S&P 500 below 750. Cramer thinks we have nothing to fear but missing the next rally.

Obama is No Herbert Hoover

With a staggering drop in the Dow, the fearmongers are back announcing another Great Depression. Cramer is skeptical, because, for one thing, Obama is no Herbert Hoover. The infamous father of the Hooverville was balancing the budget and reigning in spending at a time when he should have been reforming the system, as Obama is doing. Bernanke is no Roy Young, the Fed Chairman in 1929 who was raising interest rates where Bernanke is lowering them. The banks are healthier than in the Depression, thanks to FDIC insurance TARP and other safety measures. Cramer thinks that unemployment might reach 10%, but not the 24% rate of the Depression, nor will productivity decline 75%. Cramer would use the decline as an opportunity to buy.

CEO Interview: Dennis Nixon, International Bancshares (NASDAQ:IBOC)

In the old days, it was easy to decide whether a regional bank stock was worth owning, said Cramer. It was as simple as looking at the book value, the franchise value and the location and to wait for a takeover. Now that valuations in the financial sectors are completely out of whack, Cramer is wondering if International Bancshares is a buy. Sure, the stock trades at half book value and has a strong 9% dividend, but is it a safe bet?

CEO Dennis Nixon said the bank has received TARP money, which seemed like a vote of confidence and support from the government, but he added: "Obviously now Congress has now demonized the whole process, and made us all look like fools." Nixon said the bank is under constant examination as a TARP recipient and t 99.5% of its securities are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pastured. He discussed the advantage the Southwest has over the Northeast and noted housing prices are on the increase in Texas. While Cramer said "everything I heard I like," he is still leery about recommending any bank stock.

Mad Mail: Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEG), El Dorado (NYSE:EGO), SPDR GoldShares (NYSEARCA:GLD)

Cramer told a viewer who was worried about the future of gold that gold should be a part of every portfolio. He doesn't think this is the season to own yellow metal, but Cramer would buy on the way down. He has recommended AEG, EGO and thinks GLD is a buy under $90. Cramer told another viewer concerned about the national debt that gold is a good hedge in an unpredictable market. Cramer explained to another viewer that hedge funds try to drive up positions the last few days before the end of a quarter rather than on the last day, which might partly explain the rally late last week.


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