I recently wrote an article reviewing the current state of affairs of Alimera Sciences (ALIM) and its Illuvien. This article will focus on the commercialization of Illuvien and the potential dollars it will bring in.
Alimera Sciences currently has marketing authorization in 6 out of 7 EU countries it has applied in; Austria, the United Kingdom, Portugal, France, Spain and Germany. It is currently awaiting approval in Italy. Europe has an estimated 60 million diabetics. Approximately 10% of diabetics will develop Diabetic Macular Edema. The proposed price for Illuvien in Europe will be somewhere between $5,500 to $8,800. For the purpose of this article I will use the average, which is $7150.
Has approximately 400,000 diabetics.
400,000 * 0.10 = 40,000 potential patients
40,000 * $7150 = $286,000,000 sales
900,000 * 0.10 = 90,000 potential patients
90,000 * $7150 = $643,500,000 sales
3,945,753 * 0.10 = 394,575 potential patients
394,575 * $7150 = $2,821,211,250 sales
Has approximately 3,635,946 diabetics
3,635,946 * 0.10 = 363,594 potential patients
363,594 * $7150 = $2,599,697,100 sales
Has approximately 7,372,226 diabetics
7,372,226 * 0.10 = 737,222 potential patients
737,222 * $7150 = $5,271,137,300 sales
I will use a cost of $5500 for the U.K. since it is most likely to be lower in the U.K.
Has approximately 3,636,375 diabetics
3,636,375 * 0.10 = 363,637 potential patients
363,637 * $5500 = $2,000,003,500 sales
That brings the potential sales dollars from Illuvien in the six countries listed to roughly 14 billion dollars! Okay, let's not get carried away now. Obviously 100% of the market won't be captured. Even if 1% of the market is captured we will still see roughly $1,400,000,000 in sales! Don't forget that this is just sales from 6 countries in the world! Remember, these are estimations and should not be used to calculate any hard figures.
Illuvien is just getting started and is expected to launch in Germany before the end of Q1. The number of diabetics continues to increase worldwide and therefore, the potential market for Illuvien will continue to increase.
Disclosure: I am long ALIM.