Jim Cramer's Real Money Radio Recap 6/30
Note: Aaron Task will be filling in for Cramer this week.
Hard or Soft Landing - The dull performance of the market on Friday after the interest rate hike was caused by uncertainty about the Fed's next move, according to Task, who reviewed Cramer's discussion on June 7 of various views on where the market is headed. Some believe that there will be a hard-landing, in which the Fed will cause a recession with repeated interest rate hikes. Others envision a soft-landing, in which the Fed will stop raising rates once the threat of inflation has passed. The third scenario is a combination of inflation and recession, which will result in stagflation, but Cramer ruled this out, saying that, in such a situation, gold would be going higher and not lower. Task also dismisses the stagflation concern, because the US is now a service rather than a manufacturing economy, and workers, the highest cost for companies, do not have as much pull as they used to, since unionization has decreased and the threat of outsourcing prevents employees from making demands.
Taking it Easy - Task invited president of CL Willard Capital and contributor to RealMoney.com, Cody Willard, onto the show and asked him if he was repositioning after the Fed's raising interest rates on Thursday. Willard said that he missed Thursday's rally and is not changing his position; "The fact of the matter is the fed raised rates again," he said. Although he does not believe that there will be a hard-landing, Willard is not bullish, and is waiting for the current market cycle to play itself out.
Microsoft Optimism: Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) - Even though Microsoft announced a delay in the introduction of its new product and the incipient departure of Bill Gates, Willard suggests looking at the company's future rather than its past, noting that the company has $50 billion in cash on the balance sheet, and a delay in Office 07 will increase demand. Willard expects Microsoft to double in the next few years while he recommends dropping Apple, because it is currently being investigated in the stock backdating scandal.
Bullish calls:
Sempra Energy (SRE): The advent of hurricane season means higher natural gas prices, and Task suggests putting a stop in at $44 for Sempra. Task generally prefers traditional to alternative energy stocks.
Palm (PALM): Although this company reported slow quarter, its guidance exceeded expectations, and Task would buy the stock for the long-term. Willard expects Palm to make some money, but wouldn't be in a hurry to buy or to sell it.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Although JNJ has been hit hard because investors feel that it overpaid ($1.6 billion) for Pfizer's (PFE) consumer products division, Task believes that it was a good move, and would buy JNJ while it is low.
Wal-Mart (WMT): Cramer believes that this big-cap stock is poised for a turn around.
Neutral/Bearish calls:
Akamai Technologies (AKAM): This stock is in a strong position and has tripled in a year, but Willard warns that it is too costly.
Home Depot (HD): While things have been looking good for stable, blue-chip stocks, higher interest rates mean fewer real estate purchases, and could spell trouble for HD.More: Cramer's latest stock picks, including: Mad Money Recap, Lightening Round, Stop Trading and his Radio Show.
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