Good morning everybody. I'm Greg Risch, the CFO of Accuride Corporation and if you can hear my voice is not completely there. So I'm getting over a cold and so I'm going to let Chad Monroe, our Director of Corporate Development do the bulk of the presentation today and save my voice for Q&A as much as possible.
We are more than aware that Packard has a presentation at 11:00 and so we will let those of you who want to try to get over there have plenty of time. We’ll have a presentation for 15 to 20 minutes, and leave plenty of time for Q&A and we are here as long as you guys want to talk. Otherwise Rich got pulled away for personal conflict, so unfortunately he can’t be here. If there's any man that can be in two places at one time it would be Rich Dauch. So he can't do that.
So with that I'll hand it over to Chad to go through the presentation today. Again thanks for coming.
Thanks again for coming today. We will as Greg indicated get us through; a lot of information is from the earnings presentation about a couple of weeks ago. There are a couple of new items that we will discuss and we will leave plenty of time for Q&A. Just as a reminder we do have some forward-looking statements in here. So be aware of that. In terms of the industry, we really see that we are on the cost of an improvement in the end markets. We see right now that we really believe that this is the trough. The ISM index has been hovering around 50 for few a months now or slightly above which is a good sign. We like to see that start to head north of there of course, but anything above 50 as you know indicates an expanding part of the economy for manufacturing.
The age of the fleet is such that we know there is demand out there, pent up demand. We just know the fleets are being a bit cautious until we get through some of the economic uncertainty that's sort of plagued us for the past few quarters. Freight continues to be positive and is forecasted to continue to grow. So that’s very positive for the entire industry.
Next slide for those of you online; talk about build projections a bit. You can see the different build projections from ACT and FTR. That gap has started to narrow over the past few months. We expect that it will continue to do so. We are certainly on the more conservative end, and as you can see, Q1 is expected to be the trough for the industry. And we're starting to see some signs of light out there. Some of our big customers who have previously announced layoffs have been talking about perhaps pulling back on that a little bit as orders pick up. So we are optimistic that we're near the bottom here.
Next slide, I am on slide 6 for those online. In terms of industry build forecast going out past 2013, we feel that there is a fairly strong growth pattern for the next few years. Certainly not off the chart like we had back in sort of the ‘06 timeframe, but we see steady growth across the board for Class 8 medium-duty and trailer. And as things like housing and manufacturing continue to improve in the economy; we would have expect that the build will only accelerate from here.
Moving to slide 8, talk for a few minutes about our fix and grow, and what we've been doing to, I think we've done a fairly good job of keeping everybody abreast of along the way of our plans and the status of our fix and grow plan. For aluminum, the expansion is complete. We now have aluminum capacity in Erie, Pennsylvania; Camden, South Carolina; and in Monterrey, Mexico. So that’s gone very well and our team there has done a very fantastic job.
In Gunite, we are now finished with all the drum machining. We have one hub machine that is currently being launched. We are now producing commercial parts on that line, and will continue to peep up additional parts on that line over the next several weeks, and that’s going well also. The consolidation of Gunite facility in Elkhart, Indiana and the Brillion machining operation that were performed for Gunite is complete. So we now have all of the Gunite operations under one roof in Rockford.
Imperial we are getting close there. We still have a little bit more work to do, to transfer a few presses out of the larger Tennessee 1 facility over to the smaller plating facility in Tennessee. That gets us out of the lease there, which will certainly help the bottom-line for Imperial. Also we are preparing a few more presses left to be repair down in Texas. And then the Imperial work will large to be done, there are some commercial things that need to be address and subsequent to that. But that business operationally is very close to being fixed.
Brillion, the operations are improving, they continue to do good job over there of improving those operations. We are seeing softness in their markets end markets, we continue to see that. As you have been aware of the recent softness, but companies like Caterpillar has seen, they are a big customer of Brillion and Brillion continues to be profitable in spite of the lower demand in their end markets.
And then we continue to work on the ERP migration, as we start, as we clean the data and get ready to install an ERP system that will really allow us to operate this business as one entity, rather than as just pair of units. So I think the messages there are capital, our heavy CapEx, the catch-up CapEx that we have to invest in this businesses to fix these businesses as largely complete. CapEx going forward should be in the 3.5% to 4% range.
Moving to the next slide, I want to spend a lot of time on this slide, but you can see the difference between 2011 and ‘12 by facility; the status when Rich got here in 2011 and the status now. Much more green up there in 2012, as I indicated still a little bit more work to do in terms of Imperial and we are very close to finishing everything in Rockford as well.
We do have some decisions to make, as we’ve discussed about our warehouse in Indianapolis, outside of Indianapolis and so we will have further discussions around that and communicate our decisions accordingly. Moving to the next slide, slide 10, the improvements we have made in the operations are showing not any metrics. So if you look at the on-time delivery, it’s up 3% from first quarter to fourth quarter in 2012.
Our PPMs are down significantly, so our quality is up. Scrap again down 6% year-over-year, which is significant and our KPIV which is a measure of the capability and the process capabilities of each pieces of equipment that we have, so we measure over 700 specific processes and those that have a Cpk value of greater than 1.33, which mean that it is a statistically reliable process are up significantly 35% from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.
So that’s really starting to have moving to the next slide, slide 11, that's starting to have an impact in terms of our ability to go out and earn business with our customers. That's been an Achilles’ heel obviously as we've gone through the sixth stage as we've historically operated at less than what our customers would expect in terms of quality and delivery.
And so our dependability has been in question, now that we have fixed the businesses, our customers are starting to see the difference and they are starting to see or continue to see the sort of a new face of Accuride operations and that has really helped us.
We've secured a new three-year agreement and this is new since our earnings call with by far which is one of the larger after market buying groups. So that's significant for us going forward and that will be for Wheels and Gunite and a small bit of Imperial business.
As we've discussed, we've renewed our three-year agreements on the Wheels with our major truck and trailer OEMs. We've also secured an opportunity with a major truck OEM to secure up to $30 million. There's some work to do with the fleet to pull that through but this is an opportunity that we've not had before at this particular truck OE.
And then we have some additional opportunities, many of you had an opportunity to visit our Rockford facility at Gunite back in December. Subsequent to that investor meeting, we hosted many customers out of Rockford as well and all of them have been very impressed with the transformation that's taken place in that facility and more importantly impressed with the result that had in terms of delivery and reliability and quality.
And so, we've been able to, it has just allowed us to go back and start to secure new business. Now we lost as you know two large customers on the OE side of the business late last year towards the tail end of this investment. But we are starting to win back new customers in the after market and win customers back but that we had previously lost.
Now those are going to come in smaller chunks than what was lost back in the November timeframe of last year but I think when it’s all said and done those will come gradually over time. We will be in a much stronger position with a much more diversified customer base at Gunite than we had previously.
So some work to do there still but we are making progress. Moving on to slide 13, just talking briefly about the results. On a consolidated basis, you can see the revenues of just under $930 million for the year 2012 with EBITDA of just under $63 million.
The break out of our revenue as you can see is not changed much in 2011 with Wheels being the predominant share followed by Gunite and then Accuride and then clearly in Imperial in that order. As you can see we do not have a lot of international business. In fact, the international business was 15% indicated here on this slide is really Canada and Mexico.
So outside of North America we have very little business. You will see towards the tail end of our presentation as we've communicated before that's where the next focus for us as we move beyond sort of a fixed and into the growth phase of our longer term plan is to begin focusing on growing our core businesses specifically Wheels into international markets.
Moving on to trade working capital on slide 14, we ended the year in a pretty good shape with 58.9% on a percentage basis is the lowest its been in several quarters as you can see. We do have targets to further reduce our working capital as we continue to implement LEAN and also as we work through some of the bank bills that were required to fix some of this process in the Imperial business and to make sure that the consolidation efforts in Gunite went smoothly.
And so we feel we have an opportunity of somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million to further reduce our working capital requirements. Free cash flow on slide 15, in spite of the heavy CapEx, we were still free cash flow positive and as a reminder that the heavy period of CapEx is behind us.
So going forward, we would expect that that situation on a full-year basis is going to improve and that we will be in a position to at least breakeven on the year.
Moving to slide 16, one additional piece of information as you know, we ended the year with $64 million in available liquidity. We recently closed on the lease agreements that we've been discussing for a few months, which adds about $10.1 million of additional liquidity.
So that will help us just a bit of added cushion for any uncertainty that may exist out there. So we feel good about that. There are other initiatives that we continue to work on including the CapEx minimizing that I've discussed already and their working capital and the potential sale of non-core assets at the right time and at the right price.
In terms of our outlook on slide 18, I am not going to through this in great detail. We did this on the call, but we expect 2013 bills to be in the neighborhood of 250,000. We will continue to monitor that closely. I think the real issue is we know that it's sort of behalf weighted and so the issue is the timing of when that recovery really starts to accelerate, whether that sort of wait second quarter or we tend to think it’s somewhere around July give or take a month or two right now.
That would imply $800 million to $850 million worth of revenue for the year, EBITDA in the $65 million and $75 million range. Again CapEx is lower in a 3.5% to 4% revenue range. I would say that we would tend to be on a low side of that obviously if we don't see bills accelerate as soon as we would all like them to in the year.
And then again getting down to free cash flow breakeven position by the end of the year. Strategically moving on to slide 20, this continues to be our focus and as you can see I think we have done a very good working up through the base of the pyramid with installing a new leadership team, they has the right values, the right focus, in terms of being able to make the difficult decisions that are some times required when you are fixing a business.
And focusing on the customer needs and not being so concerned about sort of the day-to-day noise that sort of happens out there and sometimes in this industry. We have been on the past divesting non-core assets and trying to focus more on our core businesses, investing in those businesses and in some cases, as was the case with Camden actually purchasing additional capacity and facilities that relate to our core business.
So as we work through to the base of that pyramid, we still have some work to do with LEAN and particularly in some of our businesses that work quite as far along as the Wheels business was to begin with, and we will be focusing on this year. But our focus is going to shift toward growing company globally as I discussed earlier.
Once these businesses are strong and fixed and we have a foundation from which we can grow that’s really where our focus is going to turn to, just taking the Wheel business in particular to support our customers around the world.
And it’s important to know that our customers are asking us for that. They want suppliers who can support them in more than one market and right now we don't have that capability so that we would be our focus.
Turing to slide 21, you can sort of see these outlines how we have focused our efforts on divesting the non-core businesses and fixing those businesses that are core, expanding our capacity in businesses that we feel are going to grow and as you can see we begin to focus more on growing this business globally as we wrap up the fixed portion particularly in Gunite and Imperial.
So in summary on slide 22, our core operations are 90% to 95% there. Wheels is in great shape, Gunite operationally is in very good shape or at the very tail end of finishing that investment and we now have the capacity on the aluminum side to be able to take care of our customers that was an important issue back in 2006.
And so, we have addressed that. We are in a strong position to not only take care of our customers as the industry rebounds but to handle the shift that we expect the gradual shift from steel to aluminum as we fleets begin to focus more and more other efforts on fuel economy.
The new Wheel agreements are important and as well as the new (inaudible) agreement to our business and I think it’s a sign or signal that our customers are pleased with the turn around efforts that they are seeing in our operations. We do believe that the first quarter of 2013 is a trial. We expect that from here on things start to get better in terms of industry demand and we are in a great shape to be able to take advantage of that and service our customers in this next [structure].
Longer term, we got the liquidity in place with the additional cushion of the leases and the efforts that we have undertaken over the past several months to continue to get working capital out and that will continue throughout 2013, which is going to allow us to begin focusing more of our efforts on the global growth in select areas. So with that we will take your questions those in the audience. Yes Rim.
So for those on the line the question is, is the VIPAR agreement does that represent a new customer for us. VIPAR is not a new customer. What this represents is basically capturing a bunch of business that over time we had lost. It gives us a much stronger position within that line group to be able to sell the Gunite and Wheel products in particular. It is still ultimately up to individual distributors and ultimately fleet maintenance groups, what they are going to buy but this gives us certainly a leg up to what we had before.
And it looked like all the forecasts were rather (inaudible) and 2015 looked like they were down versus 2014 and if you can just talk about what you hear from your customers and how do you guys view when the cycle is unfolding.
Sure, again for those on the line the question was, how do we view 2015 and where we do we think sort of the peak of the cycle is, that sort of thing, if I heard you correctly. We feel like that's difficult to predict obviously. 2015 is sort of where we are seeing that right now, but obviously a lot can change and part of that depends on sort of the acceleration that happens right now in 2013. If that's a quick ramp up, then that may make it more likely that ’15 is the peak. If it ramps up slowly it may extend beyond 2015. So it is difficult to say I think that the general consensus among our customers and among the forecasting agencies right now is for 2015 maybe some strength into ’16 depending upon if you are listening more to ACT or FTR. Another question?
Sure. The question is what were sort of the key factors in winning the VIPAR agreement, and sort of what are our expectations from that going forward. Our Senior Vice President of Sales is in the room as well, Chuck Byrnes, so I'll let him comment on that if I've missed anything. But my assessment of that is, actually right after we had hosted time investor day on December 5 in Rockford, we hosted VIPAR. And there were very positive comments coming out of that visit from Rockford. In fact one of the gentlemen who came was very skeptical to say the least when he was on the way into the facility of our ability to fix that operation and when he got there I think he was very, very impressed probably blown away with the inadequate description of how he felt coming out of there and he said to his colleague that he was skeptical that we could fix this business but clearly we've made a big difference.
So I think it’s probably too early to quantify what that means in terms of absolute dollar terms, but it is a fairly significant win for us in the after market. No after market positions are going to sort of be in the $20 million $30 million range of course, so its going to be probably in the mid to higher single digits. That would be my expectation, but again a lot of that depends upon fleet buying patterns because they are the ultimate consumers. Chuck, have I missed anything?
Just lead time allowing their numbers.
Yeah, for those on the phone, specifically the reduced lead times which allows the individual members of the VIPAR group to reduce their inventory versus some of our offshore competition was one of the critical factors as well.
Yeah, so the question was we invested about 55 million in total including the Camden acquisition in our aluminum business, and what was the decision around how we made that investment in terms of [ROI] and those types of things and sort of how far are we down that path in realizing the additional business. So specifically the $30 million should be clear is, a business that we have the opportunity to go after the truck OEM, we do not have standard positions, so it's not an absolute given. But we are in on a level playing field with our competitor and with this truck OE, which allows us to go with the fleet and secure business that previously would have cost them a penalty to switch from an (inaudible) to Accuride wheel.
In terms of how we made the decision, I think a couple of things. One is it's always been a good business. So the returns on the business are very good. But the fact that we were not able to supply our customers of last peak was a significant issue for us, which cause us to lose standard position at least one of our major, major customers, and it also has been a deterrent from us being able to win new business at some of the after market and smaller trailer guys, even some of the larger trailer guys, who have been unwilling to take their business to us, because they like our product, they like our quality, but they are just not convinced historically that we would take care of them in an upturn as our focus had a necessitate shifting more towards the OEM builds that come along with that.
So we are in a position now to be able support that. That was certainly one of the factors that went into that; and the other was to gradual shift that we have been seeing and expect to continue to see from steel to aluminium. We do not want to see that the steel business start to erode and had no place to go and service our customers on aluminum side. So without giving specific ROI targets, I think it's suffice us to say that our ROI and the margins that were expected to contribute that ROI was sufficient enough in-line with our existing relatively wheel margins to allow us to make that investments. So there is a strategic side of it that we just had to it to service our customers, otherwise we were at risk as the market shifted more towards aluminium. But it also just so happened that it was a good investment financially in terms of returns. Yeah.
So two questions that I will address one was on the Gunite side, what does our cost structure look like relative to the offshore guys and on the wheel side, what’s the status of the offshore competition there, and let me address the Gunite questions. We are much more cost competitive then we have been. Operationally I would say that I would put on machining operations against almost anybody. We are much, much better then we have ever been.
We still have room for improvement of course as we fine tune the machining operations, as we continue to make adjustment to the casting side of the business. So we have further work to do that we have made significant improvements on the cost side of the house. I would say on a level playing field are we cost competitive with our offshore competition? I would say that we probably are. I think one of our concerns is whether or not we are experiencing similarly what we have seen on steel wheel side any dumping in the after markets. So if that is the case than they are not very difficult to compete with obviously.
On a level playing field I would say the answer to that is yes. On the steel wheel side of the business not much has changed over the past, I would say almost year now. Certainly last three quarters we continue to see the presence of the offshore guys in the after market. We have not seen any after market or I should say offshore business enter to the OE side of the business. That was as you recall one of the primary reason that the ITC ruled against us and again [Taser] in the antidumping suit was because our margins were still strong and there was no near term threat of the offshore guys entering the OE business. And as you know the wheel is primarily an OE business. So that was in spite of the fact that the Department of Commerce did find that there was and there continues to be dumping and subsidies from the government. Does that answer your question? Great. Other questions.
Yeah, so the question is why would customers shift from Alcoa to Accuride? I think there's a couple of reasons. One is fleets specifically would prefer to buy you know they can buy from us steel wheels, aluminum wheels, the Gunite components all from one supplier that makes it much more easy for them to do business.
That's an advantage that we have whereas most of our competitors they are a single product shop. That's the big piece of it. I would say that on a performance in terms of the characteristics of the aluminum wheels are weight. Obviously, the performance over the life of the vehicle and you know, as funny as it might sound the appearance of the wheel.
And so, in terms of all those three things, we are absolutely on par or better than Alcoa. It’s very hard to tell the difference between the two wheels. They shouldn't have a very competitive product and if we had to (inaudible) here I doubt that many of us [wouldn't] be able to tell the difference simply by looking at them.
So I think it’s primarily the fact they can buy many from a broader portfolio that we have and we have reorganized our sales force to focus more on the fleets so that we can pull that business through. I think there's another important thing to understand and that is the dynamics within the industry and as it shifts Alcoa has always been a supplier to PACCAR for many, many years and as the shift occurs it’s likely to shift at the other three customers.
PACCAR what they produce today, majority of what they produce already has aluminum wheel on it and so where we are stronger with some of the other customers that gives us a fair bit of advantage as the shift occurs from steel to aluminum. Other questions? I am sorry.
So two questions, one was what are the major risks to the remainder of our fixed strategy here? And the second question was with our ABL coming current in the summer, what are our plans around that? You know, we are largely past the sort of major risk areas. I mean, there's always the risk that you know a piece of equipment could break down but I'll tell you that our focus on maintenance, our focus on having the right team in place that actually knows how to operate this equipment is much, much stronger than its ever been.
So I think we've significantly reduced those risks. We have few presses that we are continuing to repair. Right now those are on track for Imperial and as I mentioned earlier, the hub line that we purchased from the Italian company is currently on the ground installed on a commercial power.
So I mean I will say the majority of the risk is behind us outside of sort of those unknown that any business faces, you know, relative to running operations but I'd say the majority of those risks are behind us. I think the biggest unknown right now really has more to do with the end markets and the timing of that, of the acceleration that we are all expecting to occur here in the next couple of quarters.
In terms of the AVL, we are taking a look at that. We recognize that it comes current and I think we will be working on that over the next few months. I think right now it's more down to right timing for doing that in terms of when the window is sort of open and the markets are most agreeable, if that certainly are one of our focuses as well.
So the question is Imperial, let’s assume that our guidance in terms of margins and or in other words, what can we expect them to get through by the end of the year. So without giving specific guidance for Imperial, obviously save it, you know, we would expect that the first quarter, Imperial are continuing to move equipment and repair equipment but it is going to be the weakest quarter of the year and that will continue to improve throughout the remainder of the year.
I would say that by the second quarter, I would expect that business to be performing much better than it is not at the double-digit target yet that we're expecting, but I would say by the time we get to the end of the year, again with the caveat, the timing of the industry demand rebound that we would expect that business to be performing at or very close to our targets which are sort of low double-digit EBITDA.
So the question for those online, is Imperial still considered core? Imperial is still a non-core business for us longer-term. In any time we talk about non-core businesses, timing and value is always a key consideration there. And so that’s kind of where we are right now but certainly it's a business that I mean, I think even an outsider could generally view that is as a non-core business. I mean, it's not the same type of process engineering, manufacturing processes etcetera. So the only way that it is related to the end markets that our Wheels and Gunite business.
What do you see in terms of evaluation?
What we are seeing in terms of evaluations? It's tough without getting specific which I can't do. It's tough right now just because it's a business that’s trailing 12 months EBITDA is pretty weak right. And we are dealing a breakeven business that’s a bit of a challenge. But forget the right offer and the timing is right, it will be certainly something that we strongly consider. Other questions?
I wonder if you could talk a little bit about your overseas wheel competitors and really how aggressively can you expand around the world $55 million to $75 million (inaudible)?
So the question is a little bit of discussion around offshore competitors on the wheel side and what we see there and then the question is how aggressively can we expand overseas, considering that we have got a relatively a low level of EBITDA performance and I think more to the point breakeven free cash flow for the year, expected in 2013.
Certainly that is consideration, there are some strong offshore competitors, (inaudible) on the steel side is the biggest, they have got a nice footprint now with their acquisition of (inaudible) assets and so they can service customers around the market.
In South America, that means they got Minneapolis and our customers are pleased with that and so they would like us to be able to service them and have options down in South America. That same Minneapolis situation holds true to for Alcoa on the aluminum side basically throughout the rest of the world.
Aluminum is not as strong as the demand in terms versus steel in some of the other markets, but it will grow as infrastructure improves and as weight requirements become more important on that infrastructure. We would expect to see that continue to grow.
And so, on that front as well, customers like more options than just one. So those are important. In terms of timing for these things, I think we recognized that we don't have a surplus of available capital to go and invest immediately. I think for the right deal at the right time, we can have the access that we need to the capital, obviously implying it’s not going to be necessarily internally generated.
I think that longer term, somebody is going to be little bit more long-term in nature right over the next 18 and 24 months I would say or longer. And so, we would expect that going beyond as the industry 2013 as the industry continues to rebound that we will see the ability to have stronger free cash flow that will help us to grow as well.
Yeah, so the question is Brillion end markets and how is the [office] there relative to Q4 and so what are the expectations there in terms of end markets? I would say that it is probably as soft maybe slightly softer than Q4. I think real issue is around recovery in those end markets and if that rebound happens sort of late second quarter or some time during third quarter then that's going to bode well for Brillion obviously, if it happens later than that that's going to make much tougher flooding throughout the year.
So but in spite of that Brillion’s operations have improved to the point and in spite of the softness in the market they've been able to maintain stronger pricing than they had 18 months ago. Those two things have helped the business and we still would expect that business to be in a positive in terms of both EBITDA and free cash flow for the year. So even if the recovery you know would happen much later than anticipated. Other questions?
So the question is, is what are our market share assumptions embedded in our 2013 guidance and in terms of offshore competitors are they being anymore or less aggressive than historically? I would say that to answer the second question first, my assessment of that is that they were a bit more aggressive after the (inaudible) suit took place right. I think they gave them a bit of a renewed sense of confidence obviously.
In terms of their activity its been fairly steady since then and I wouldn't say that they have become you know sort of month by month even more and more aggressive, Chuck may have an opinion on that but I think that's our assessment right now. They do have a very strong position in the after market today. They have been able to develop.
I don't know if there's whole lot more room for them to grow on that after market side perhaps there are some but they've got a pretty good position in the after market. So I would say that it’s and keep in mind, they've been around since sort of 2005 and ’06 timeframe, perhaps even longer and this is not a new phenomenon for us.
It’s just something that we continue to have to deal with obviously as we go forward. In terms of what's embedded and in terms of market share, I'd say that generally speaking flat market share with some growth on the aluminum side, some modest growth on the aluminum side as we now have more capacity and as the shift occurs from steel to aluminum we expect some of the market share to accrete to us naturally.
Yeah, good clarifying question. So the question was on the offshore competition are we seeing more sort of pressure on the Wheel side or is that on the Gunite side? I'd say without doubt it’s on the Gunite side of the business for the drums in particular. That's where we are seeing the pressure.
In terms of stepping back and addressing some of the other previous questions, clearly they have continued to be aggressive on that side both in terms of pricing and their volumes as well. So, yes, on the after market side for, and the OE side for the drum business yes that is a challenge.
My comments earlier were more directed toward the steel wheels side of the business where it’s sort of been status quo or slightly more aggressive since the (inaudible). Good question thank you.
Any other questions for those in the room? We recognize there are some other presentations going on today for the next 20 minutes or so. So we will end the call and the meeting here today in the room. For those of you in the room, who would like to stick around and ask some follow-up questions, we will make ourselves available to that but those on the line, we appreciate you joining us today. Thank you and good bye.
Ladies and gentlemen that concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a great day.
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