Is Momentum Shifting For High Techs?

| About: Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

For more than six months, the high-technology sector has been on a strong rebound, with Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) gaining anywhere from 10 to 40 percent. This morning, however, the rebound is put into question following a disappointing earnings report from Oracle.

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To be fair, part of Oracle's problem seems to be company specific, as its sales force failed to close on a number of big deals, perhaps, because customers postponed purchases waiting for new product releases.

But Oracle's problems could be attributed to another factor: Its customers -- large corporations and government agencies -- are reluctant to open their wallets and buy new software, feeling the pinch of a slow-growing world economy. Oracle's revenues dropped by 1.0 percent (yoy) and 1.6 percent sequentially. Of particular concern is a decline in new software licenses (-1.5%), and in hardware sales (-16% yoy and 6.1% sequentially)-the decline was extended throughout most of the world regions, which is consistent with reports from other U.S. multinationals. Yesterday, for instance, Federal Express (NYSE:FDX) and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) reported big sales, misses too. What does all this mean for high-tech investors? What should they do with high-tech stocks?

Two things: First, they should keep a close eye on the big picture, the world economy that continues to blow headwinds even for bellwether companies. Second, they should keep an eye on the small picture, and most notably the valuations of different technology companies. Oracle, for instance, trades at a forward PE of roughly 10, with a 0.73 companies -- not bad in this slow interest environment.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.