Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

<< Return to page 1 - Grasping at Straws























































The market decline was led by financials and the toxic mortgage assets. With these safely hidden or in remission like cancer, and massive amounts of liquidity pumped into the financial system, we’re heading higher. However, Main Street still isn’t in the mood to play. This rally is the result of massive amounts of liquidity now available to trading desks. They and hedge funds are picking each other’s pockets, launching program buying and selective short squeezes.

Until people start funding their accounts this rally shouldn’t last too long. If retail investors start putting money to work in mutual funds, retirement plans and so forth, then the rally can gain more traction. Until then it’s just a game played by Da Boyz.

Google (GOOG) reports Thursday and that should carry some weight.

Let’s see what happens.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: SPY, MDY, IWM, QQQQ, FDN, XLB, XLF, XLI, XLY, IYR, DBV, DBC, DBA, DBB, USL, MOO, EFA, EEM, ILF, EWH, EWM, EWA, EWZ, IFN and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward.

Comments

[Daniel Herkes:]

Good analysis. Hey, what does "safely hidden" mean? As in "swept under the edge of the rug?"

Apr 16 06:37 AM

[Wasabinator:]

They've swept it under a rug and for good measure threw a few taxpayer funded rugs on top.


On Apr 16 06:37 AM Daniel Herkes wrote:

> Good analysis. Hey, what does "safely hidden" mean? As in "swept
> under the edge of the rug?"

Apr 16 07:31 AM

[Scott Larison:]

Few points on VIX and SPY- rel stregth and MACD.
1. VIX at the bottom of of rel strength and SPY through the roof.
2. MACD lines suggesting a crossover in both, may see a spike in VIX and retracement in SPY.

Side Note - May want to include SPX over the VIX chart since VIX is derived from SPX option implied.volatilities

Apr 16 09:17 AM

[JGL:]

Why is Malaysia doing well when all economic news are negative???

Apr 16 10:03 AM

[Artistes:]

With the first gap filled on EWZ, is it too optimistic to think that the second gap of 55-56 is next? I'm looking at the MACD, and it looks like it has room to run.

Apr 16 11:41 AM

[AndrewBaker:]

Well, David's charts - and others - are showing bullish behaviour all round, but I don't feel bullish. Can manipulation by the powers that be fix the economy? I don't think so, so short-term long plays for now, but ready to short without the term as soon as reality breaks out.

Apr 16 11:46 AM

[AndrewBaker:]

China stockpiling seems to be lifting a lot of things: base metals as well as other emerging economies. The ramping of financials is also working the markets up, even though much of it is our tax dollar. Both may fail: emeging economies can't continue on any promise from us, so unless they develop their home markets more, they will come back soon; and the financials are just a few truths away from falling back too. Anyone for some cheap toxic assets?

Apr 16 11:52 AM

[johnbee:]

Its all about Government market manipulation hand in hand with the banks. So Banks should win but watch out if they don't.

Apr 16 12:40 PM

[totheabovej...:]

if China is stock piling, i guess they are really ready to finally step up and be a strong economy and throw the USA and the dollar down a few notches

we won't crumble but in most people's minds it will feel that way

i wouldn't be surprised to see our cities overran by asian buyers and only the small towns that can sustain themselves be left alone. We'll be like the Amish are to us in the eyes of the new cities

Apr 16 04:55 PM

[corey mendel:]

johnbee... how could the banks not win? we "the tax payer" support them, not the govt. lol

Apr 16 11:00 PM