By Karl Smith
For nearly two years initial claims for unemployment benefits have declined roughly 8-10% year-over-year
Despite lots of hand wringing over the week-to-week numbers the trend was incredibly stable.
In late 2012 that trend seemed to break down and the improvement drifted towards the flat-line rate of 0%.
Recently there have been a couple of hints at a return to the old trend, however. Right now we are not too-too far off.
There are a lot of moving parts here but it's interesting to note that – excluding very brief spikes – we currently seem to be in the the longest period of sustained year over year improvement in Initial Claims on record.