Initial Claims Not Far Off Long-Term Trend

by: Modeled Behavior

By Karl Smith

For nearly two years initial claims for unemployment benefits have declined roughly 8-10% year-over-year

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Despite lots of hand wringing over the week-to-week numbers the trend was incredibly stable.

In late 2012 that trend seemed to break down and the improvement drifted towards the flat-line rate of 0%.

Recently there have been a couple of hints at a return to the old trend, however. Right now we are not too-too far off.

There are a lot of moving parts here but it's interesting to note that – excluding very brief spikes – we currently seem to be in the the longest period of sustained year over year improvement in Initial Claims on record.

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