February Chip Sales: I Call Bottom ... Until the Next Bottom

If it is chip sales that will lead the recovery, don’t expect one for quite some time. World-wide sales of semiconductors slumped 30 percent to $14.2 billion in February, the Semiconductor Industry Association said Friday. That’s down 7.6 percent from January levels. (Click on the chart below for the gruesome details.)

Clearly, chip sales are tanking and we’re now well on our way to the depths plumbed back in 2001-2002. “The global semiconductor industry is going through one of the steepest corrections in its history,” said SIA President George Scalise. “While it would be premature to conclude that the sales decline has hit bottom, there are some indications that the rate of decline has moderated from the final quarter of 2008.”

Well, that’s reassuring…

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Comments

[morph366:]

The fact that the rate of decline for semi-conducutors is moderating - the so called second derivative improvement - has been fuelling most of the recent rally.
But according to market folklore one has to be discounting 6-9 months ahead, so if others are jumping back in and pushing prices of equities up more and more are taking the view that they might as well get on board for the ride.
Convinced .... nor am I.

Apr 04 09:35 AM

[Mayascribe:]

Just look at what copper is doing (up); that's a much better leading indicator.

Apr 05 06:24 PM