Common sense tells us that at some point there has to be some retracement following an impressive climb higher. My common sense has never been very good, so I'm beginning to question the pessimism that overtook me about 4 weeks ago.
Maybe the new version of a market plunge is simply staying at or near the same level for a few days. After all, who doesn't believe that if you're not moving ahead that you're falling behind? It is all about momentum and growth. Besides, if history can be rewritten by the victors, why not the rules that are based on historical observations?
During the previous 4 weeks I've made very few of the trades that I would have ordinarily made, constantly expecting either the sky to fall down or the floor to disappear from underneath. Of the trades, most have fallen in line with the belief that what others consider a timeless bit of advice. Investing in quality companies with reliably safe dividends may be timeless, but it can also be boring. Of course, adding in the income from selling options and it's less so, but perhaps more importantly better positioned to cushion any potential drops in an overall market.
That makes sense to me, so there must be something flawed in the reasoning, although it did work in 2007-2009 and certainly worked in 1999-2000. I can safely say that without resorting to a rewriting of history.
As usual, the week's potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend or "PEE" categories, with no selections in the "Momentum" category, befitting common sense. (see details). Additionally, there is a greater emphasis on stocks that offer monthly contracts only, eschewing the usual preference for the relatively higher ROI of weekly options for the guarantee of premiums for a longer period in order to ride out any turbulence.
Deere (DE) has been unnecessarily caught in the headlights recently, as it frequently trades in parallel to other heavy machinery giants, despite Deere not having the same kind of global economic exposure. The fact that it goes ex-dividend this week and always offers a reasonable premium, even when volatility is low, makes it a good selection, especially at its current price, which is down about 8% in a time that the S&P 500 has been up 3%. That seems a bit incongruous.
State Street Bank (STT) also goes ex-dividend this week. At a time when banks with global interests are at risk due to European Union and Euro related issues, State Street is probably the lowest profile of all of our "too big to fail" banks that play with the "big boys" overseas. Despite a marked climb, particularly from mid-January, it has shown resistance to potentially damaging international events.
While State Street Bank looks appealing, I have wanted to pick up shares of JP Morgan (JPM) for the past couple of weeks as it and its one time invincible CEO and Chairman, have come under increasing scrutiny and attack. Although it doesn't pay a dividend this week, if purchased and call options are not assigned, it does offer a better dividend to holders than State Street and will do so on April 3, 2013. Better yet, Jamie Dimon will be there to oversee the dividend as both CEO and Chairman, as the Board of Directors re-affirmed his dual role late Friday afternoon, to which shares showed no response.
If you're looking for a poster child to represent the stock market top of 2007, then look no further than Blackstone (BX). It was even hotter than Boston Chicken of a generation earlier, and it, too, quickly left a bad after taste. Suddenly, Blackstone no longer seems irrelevant and its name is being heard more frequently as buyouts, mergers and acquisitions are returning to the marketplace, perhaps just in time for another top.
Back in the days when I had to deal with managed care health companies, I wasn't particularly fond of them, perhaps because I was wrong in the early 1980s when I thought they would disappear as quickly as they arrived. As it turns out, it was only the managed care company on whose advisory board I served that left the American landscape for greener pastures in The Philippines. Humana, one of the early managed care companies at that time was predominantly in the business of providing health care. These days it's divested itself of that side of the social contract and now markets and offers insurance products.
Humana (HUM) is a low volatility stock as reflected in its "beta" of 0.85 and is trading close to its two year low. The fear with Humana, as with other health care with a large Medicare population is that new reimbursement rates, which are expected to be released on April 1, 2013 will be substantially lower. Shares have already fallen more almost 20% in the past 6 weeks at a time when insurers, on the other side of the equation, have fared well.
UnitedHealth Care (UNH) is the big gorilla in the healthcare room. It has really lagged the S&P 500 ever since being add to the DJIA. However, if your objective is to find stocks upon which you can generate revenue from dividends and the sale of option premiums, you really don't need much in the way of share performance. In fact, it may be antithetical to what you really want. UnitedHealth Group, though, doesn't have the same degree of exposure to Medicare fees, as does Humana.
While the insurers and the health care providers battle it out between themselves and the government, there's another component to healthcare that comes into focus for me this week. The suppliers were in the news this week as Cardinal Health (CAH) reportedly has lost its contract with Walgreens (WAG). Cardinal Health and Baxter (BAX) do not do anything terribly exciting, they just do some things that are absolutely necessary for the provision of healthcare, both in formal settings and at home. Although also subject to Medicare reimbursement rates and certainly susceptible to pricing pressure from its partners, they are consistently reliable companies and satisfy my need to look for low beta positions. Besides their option premiums, Cardinal Health also goes ex-dividend this week.
Then again, what's healthcare without pharmaceuticals? Merck (MRK) is another of those companies whose shares I've wanted to buy over the past few weeks. It's now come down from its recent Vytorin related high and may round out purchases in the sector.
With the safe and boring out of the way, there are still a few laggard companies that have yet to report their quarterly earnings before the cycle starts all over again on April 8th. Of those, one caught my attention.
Why anyone goes into a GameStop (GME) store is beyond me. Yet, if you travel around the country you will still see the occasional Blockbuster store, as well. Yet, somehow GameStop shares tend not to suffer terribly when earnings are released, although it is very capable of making large moves at any other time. The current proposition is whether the sale of puts to derive a 2.8% ROI in the event of less than a 12% decline in share price is worthwhile.
Now that's a challenging game and you don't even have to leave home to play it.
Traditional Stocks: Baxter, Blackstone, JP Morgan, UnitedHealth Group
Momentum Stocks: none
Double Dip Dividend: Cardinal Health (3/27), Deere (3/26), Humana (3/26), State Street Bank (3/27)
Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: GameStop (3/28 AM)
Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. Some of the above selections may be sent to Option to Profit subscribers as actionable Trading Alerts, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts. Alerts are sent in adjustment to and consideration of market movements, in an attempt to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.
Some of the stocks mentioned in this article may be viewed for their past performance utilizing the Option to Profit strategy.
Additional disclosure: I may initiate positions (or sell puts) in BAX, BX, CAH, DE, HUM, JPM, MRK, STT and UNH