Update on My Channeling Stocks Portfolio

Below are the current holdings in the Channeling Stocks portfolio. This reflects the past week's additions and subtractions. I did forget to mention that on 4/2 the Ultrashort Financial ETF, the SKF, violated its lower channel forcing a sell. My apologies.

As I mentioned in the MANDA update, please note that the realized return is based on a total portfolio value equal to exactly that of the current holdings (where each holding is of equal dollar value). If a static portfolio value is assumed, the realized return will be a different number (either more or less). There's no one correct way to calculate the theoretical total return. I prefer the former method for a couple of reasons: it's easier to calculate and easier to demonstrate, i.e., the reader can see exactly how each trade performed.

I decided in this portfolio to compare the dynamic realized return to a “static” return. To calculate the static return, I began with a portfolio of $500,000 with each position set at $10,000. ($10 commissions and 4.5% margin interest computed monthly are also assumed.) You can see that the difference between these two returns is quite dramatic: -11.5% for the dynamic portfolio versus only -2.4% for the static one. Obviously, this is because there's a lot of cash in the latter portfolio as opposed to none in the former which cushions the drawdown.



Click on table to enlarge

Comments

[LoveShorting:]

Great to see all those short positions and the two longs from China,
but,
wouldn't you get more satisfaction from doing your own market analysis instead of following some program used by a herd of followers?

Apr 07 02:05 PM

[connorport:]

Ive found when the stock moves up and stabilizes on its own then analysts up their targets. I wouldn't want to be short at this point. Shorts were for earlier in the year. To short now would be suicide unless you have insider info. I like to use an approach from a conservative standpoint of looking at company fundamentals and future estimates and how much the stock is beaten up in comparison to what it was a years ago. I figure if the stock is say 10 and was 50 and the market returns just half on an upswing which i think it will do it would put it at $25 a share. Thats a 150% return. Even if it takes two to three years to do so is far better than most investments.

Apr 22 04:11 PM