Key ETF Performance: 4/7/09

Below we highlight the 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month performance of key ETFs across all asset classes. As shown, the last month has been huge for equity ETFs across the globe, as stock indices everywhere have rallied from 20% to 40%.

In the US, the Financial ETF (XLF) has been the best performing sector ETF with a gain of 50%. Health Care (XLV) has rallied the least at 10%. Internationally, India (INP) and Italy (EWI) have rallied the most at 38%. Japan (EWJ) has rallied the least at 19%. The oil ETF (USO) is up 5.5% over the last month, but natural gas (UNG), gold (GLD), and silver (SLV) are down. And fixed income ETFs are pretty much flat. With gains like these in such a short time frame, it wouldn't be a bad thing for stocks to take a breather, as long as the prior lows aren't breached.

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Comments

[Mary LaRue:]

I typically don't invest in the commodity ETFS; they are taxed as "collectibles" which carry a much higher capital gains tax.

Apr 08 11:17 AM

[Mad Hedge F...:]

I would put the (TBT) at the core of any portfolio. If stocks sell off from here you should get a rally in Treasuries that will be ripe for selling into. There is no way that investors are being compensated for their risk with yields at these levels, especially with massive global government reflationary efforts guaranteed to bring a resurgence of inflation. I think the futures contract on the long bond will collapse from 127 now to inder 70 in three years, once hyperinflation hits. With the leverage offered by a futures contract, the returns will be huge. However, this is not a riskless trade. There have already been several rounds of stop loss buying by traders who jumped into this strategy too early, as unimaginable buying kicked in at 120, 125, 131, 136 and finally 141. In Japan the ten year bond eventually hit a low of 0.46%, making our ten year at 2.85% look incredibly expensive. That works out to a futures price of 200 or more. Of course we are not Japan. The Treasury has done more to repair things in 60 days than Japan did in 15 years, and Japan has still not adopted full mark to mark accounting. Some 19 years after their bubble burst, the country is still seeing subpar growth, and ten year yields have made it back up to only a measly 1.25%. There are also constant games going on in the bond futures markets like expiration plays, engineered short squeezes in the underlying, and bogus news leaks. PIMCO, the Newport Beach based Pacific Investment Management Company, the world’s largest private bond investor, plays this market like a violin. Still, I think it’s worth a shot. Take another look at the Power Shares Lehman 20 year plus ETF (TBT), which gives you a 200% short on the sector. This will be the last bubble we can short into for a long time.

Apr 08 11:27 AM