Energy Policies May Lead to Carbon Crack-Up by 2012

Sometime in the year running up to the Presidential election in 2012, Washington will realize it’s made an enormous mistake. And that mistake is making the ongoing issue of global oil supply subordinate to climate change policy. The result will be neither much improvement in national carbon emissions, nor the addition of enough public transport that allows Americans to reduce their oil consumption. By 2012 I see oil back above 150 a bbl (and also much higher electricity rates), but, no improvement in urban traffic congestion whatsoever. It’s a Green carbon crack-up. Andy Warhol’s Car Accident (in green) sums up the situation pretty well.

We knew this policy was coming. I had conversations with Obama’s energy team last summer. But now that Secretary Chu has taken the helm at Energy, the policy is crystal clear: Oil supply is not the problem – Climate Change is the problem.

It’s a shame they see it this way. My blog previewed the potential in such a strategic mistake back in early January. With so little Stimulus or Budgetary funding devoted to Rail, I foresaw virtually no aggregate change in transport options for average Americans. Other energy bloggers like Dave Cohen have also picked up on the rather arcane and theoretical views that are now forming energy policy. See Cohen’s brilliant double posts, Steven Chu’s Energy Miscalculations and also The Secretary of Synthetic Biology.

What I find most troubling about the attitude now emanating from the Energy Department, is that biofuels – which have now been proven to be a wasted bullet both as a business and an energy solution – are once again being invoked. And invoked often. Both in last week’s Newsweek column, and in public remarks today at the EIA Energy Conference in Washington, Chu repeatedly acknowledges that we have a liquid fuels problem mainly concentrated in the area of transport. But he then, each time, goes on to deceptively degrade this acknowledgment by assigning the solution to the future development of replacement biofuels. Frankly, I regard that as a kind of jack-move. He is moving that which is core out to the periphery, and placing it into the realm of possibility. That simply will not work.

Biofuels are not a replacement for oil. Biofuels can be a supplement, at best, to liquid fuel consumption. They are poor in energy content, and anytime you begin to talk about really scaling them up you are then triggering potentially massive quantities of water, land, natural gas, fertilizer and plain old electricity to produce them. Chu is talking about replacing up to 30% of oil consumption with future biofuels? After biofuels have already failed? That is quackery.

Prepare for Carbon Crack-Up 2012.

Comments

[pacman1947:]

Gregor,
As an energy person, you know how huge is the problem of changing America's love of the automobile and its fuel. The biofuel experiment of ethanol and its various mixtures has failed. The compressed air system that aquaculture touts depends on electricity or fossil-fueled generators in every home, not a reasonable solution. There are many other ideas, Like T. Boone Pickens' plan for CNG autos and trucks as a home-grown transition strategy.

Biofuels can meet some of the transition requirements through biodiesel technology, but only in a transitory mode. Some see the ultimate transportation fuel as ammonia, since it does not have so many of the faults of pure hydrogen, stores, handles, and transports like fossil fuels, as clean as hydrogen, and can be used for other purposes. Others shout their support for electrics, but as we all know, the battery is its Achilles -- a range too limited. Try flying an airplane on batteries.

What do you see as the solution?

Apr 08 08:30 AM

[john s. gordon:]

pacman - NH3 is an excellent working fluid in commercial refrigeration systems, was much used in the 1920's before freons (odorless, nontoxic) were adopted. toxicity of ammonia works against its use as transportation fuel. you would have to park your car outdoors, not in your garage.

batteries for airplanes - recommend a solar powered airplane instead. in the 1950's we had an aircraft nuclear propulsion project office at wright field, after a while it became apparent that with all that lead shielding to protect the aircrew the critter would never get off the ground.
> jack

Apr 08 09:07 AM

[wakeup call:]

Why is no one paying attention to the inherent problems with ethanol. Phase separation, affinity for moisture and corrosive nature of ethanol are major problems which have yet to be solved. Car manufactures small motor manufacturers have all panned ethanol to the point of threatening to void warrantees if ethanol blended gasoline exceeds the 10% level. This is another indication that people make decisions and force the facts to support those decision. Lets try something novel - lets review the facts and then draw a conclusion. Washington needs to set policy by understanding the facts in the real world and not making decision because they support a political position.

Apr 08 09:11 AM

[Ferdinand E...:]

Good article, and I'm familiar with Dave Cohen's excellent work also. And if Dr Chu doesn't know about oil, and is lukewarm or thereabouts to nuclear, then bad news will come sooner rather than later.

My bottom line however includes some biofuels. Note the "some". An expanded nuclear base, with the dimensions determined by real experts, on top of which rests a mixed bag of renewables - which should give the new president's 'Environmental Team' something to do, and keep them out of trouble.

Yes, I still refuse to call them an energy team, and if they don't get the message on oil, I'm right to do so..

Apr 08 09:38 AM

[bluesmoke:]

Sounds like this guy Chu needs to be shown the door - and fast.

Apr 08 10:25 AM

[john s. gordon:]

wakeup - do not confuse the alcohols. MeOH (although useful @ indianapolis) is not a suitable additive for consumer gasoline due to water-bottoming in storage tanks.
EtOH on the other hand will counteract any phase-separation tendency but if used in too great a concentration may adversely affect certain plastics that are used in fuel supply (pump & injector) systems.
> jack

Apr 08 10:50 AM

[cabear:]

- Sometime in the year running up to the Presidential election in 2012, Washington will realize it’s made an enormous mistake.

Hopefully the VOTERS will too.

Apr 08 11:05 PM

[cannedpawn8:]

There are wiser heads than me here, all I know is that my local Wal-Mart here in Norman, OK now has a big sign saying "No alcohol in Gas". It has had 10% for a long time.

Apr 09 04:38 AM

[Merlot:]

Does anyone here really believe that if the US keeps using and importing and paying for 90% of our energy for overseas sources, from Arabs and others that seek to undermine US freedom and our democractic way for life, that the energy policy won't evenually bankrupt US in more ways than we can imagine?? Just a thought.............Wake up America...

Apr 09 05:52 AM